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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 43699 times)
urutzizu
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« Reply #525 on: October 31, 2019, 03:32:35 pm »

...the Morroccan (largely Berber origin) kids in Molenbeek are third generation immigrants, I'm a second generation immigrant myself. We are as Belgian as each other...why they are amalgamated with Syrian refugees while I am not is where the racism really lies.

Among the the second/third generation Immigrants, would you say is there a tendency to Identity strongly with the Country of Belgium and Belgian Unity or rather do they Identify as Flemish/Walloons? (or neither/with their country of origin?)
I remember, in Britain Immigrants are likely to Identify with "British" as opposed to the Whites who identify as English, Welsh, etc. Is Fleming/Walloon similarly percieved to be a ethnic indicator?
Do you think that the lack of a strong Belgian identity/patriotism is partly responsible for issues like Molenbeek?

Thanks!
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Laki
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« Reply #526 on: November 01, 2019, 06:55:10 am »

https://www.facebook.com/UNDIVIDEDKULeuven/

Radicalizing youngsters at Royal University Leuven. They think it's funny, but minimalizing Congo genocide, saying LGBTQ are sick, defending slavery and so on... aren't. I'm really afraid of the radicalizing youngsters.

Meanwhile i've heard from my mom & dad that children are robbed by immigrants here in this city, so in some way i understand the negative sentiment towards immigrants.

The right solution seems to be to be harsh on crime. When immigrants do a crime, they should be sent back to country of origin. We should be very harsh on crime, as well as youth crime. But should also strongly condemn radicalizing youngsters and bully behavior from radicalizing students.

This needs to stop, because it's destabilizing the world. If we continue like this, we will be on our way to dark years.

I also believe we need an immigrant stop to stabilize the country, call it a national crisis and focus on integrating immigrants, as well as REINTEGRATING second and third immigration childs, and return to normalcy when it comes to our values and culture. No more refugees, no more immigrants from muslim countries, spread immigrants towards our whole country (instead of the ghetto's we have now), and focus on integrating them. Immigrants who violate the rule, no mercy and back to the country where they belong.
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Laki
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« Reply #527 on: November 01, 2019, 07:02:22 am »

I think though that Mahdi and the President of Plopsaland are beginning to touch upon an issue though, which is that Belgian society tends to segregate itself (it was the case when we had football clubs for the catholic pillar and for secular people for example, until it became financially unviable). And now (Greater) Brussels and Antwerp are clearly designed to ensure sections of society don't mix, which creates perceived racial segregation (and "entire districts gone to foreigners" perceptions) when really its a much more complex issue.

Mahdi of course is far more effective at communicating that in a more nuanced way, especially how its not about race, nor indeed an extension of some sort of Clash of Civilisation, but more about micro-cultural aspects.

As long as you have VB and Theo Francken monopolising the immigration issue though its going to be tough not to fall into "amalgames"...the Morroccan (largely Berber origin) kids in Molenbeek are third generation immigrants, I'm a second generation immigrant myself. We are as Belgian as each other...why they are amalgamated with Syrian refugees while I am not is where the racism really lies.

You're a good example of an immigrant (2nd gen) that fully integrated and it's sad a small group is ruining it for everyone, and especially the ones that try to do good. It's because of people like you i don't vote for the right, even though i'm right-wing on immigration, crime and that kind of issues. Reasonable right though. But I avoid talking about the issue in my own political party (PVDA-PTB), because they're left-wing or far-left on immigration, and i'm okay with it as my most important issues i side with them.

Second and third generation Belgians are Belgians. That's something i fully agree with, but crime should be harsh, for both whites, Belgians, immigrants or whatever. First gen needs to be sent back in case of major crime (robbery included). We need more national security. I think it's not okay that children are robbed (like 6 in my town) in the last week. This was something that didn't happen years ago.

I've read that in the region of Walsall and Birmingham, the incidents with knives have also strongly risen. I think that's unacceptable for a developed country like the UK.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #528 on: November 01, 2019, 12:56:28 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2019, 01:02:17 pm by Zinneke »

...the Morroccan (largely Berber origin) kids in Molenbeek are third generation immigrants, I'm a second generation immigrant myself. We are as Belgian as each other...why they are amalgamated with Syrian refugees while I am not is where the racism really lies.

Among the the second/third generation Immigrants, would you say is there a tendency to Identity strongly with the Country of Belgium and Belgian Unity or rather do they Identify as Flemish/Walloons? (or neither/with their country of origin?)

In Flanders, yes, clearly there is a "Belgian vote", and on npdata.be there is ample evidence for that, although its less traditional Belgian nationalism/Belgicist sentiment, more of a backlash movement against Flemish nationalism. It can vary according to communities though (it won't have escaped you in this thread that the Flemish nationalists love to play communitarian politics within immigrant communities, like in Genk).

In Wallonia and Brussels, its a non-issue. Identity is a non-issue in general. Integration is somewhat an issue, identity is never actually debated fully the way Flanders often descends into "Who is a Good Fleming?". The demographic history of Wallo Brux explains a lot about that.

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I remember, in Britain Immigrants are likely to Identify with "British" as opposed to the Whites who identify as English, Welsh, etc. Is Fleming/Walloon similarly percieved to be a ethnic indicator?

Walloon and Brusseleir its very difficult to say yes. Already most Walloons don't identify with Wallonia : https://www.lecho.be/actualite/archive/En-depit-des-reformes-les-Wallons-s-identifient-peu-a-leur-Region/8652800

And Brussels is a city identity with its own characteristics

 Both are civic national identities and there is very little discussion about these topics there anyway. Di Rupo is hardly a Wallon de souche yet if you asked people here who is a famous Walloon he would come up quite quickly (alongside the likes of Nacer Chadli, for example).

 Fleming...depends...but in academia absolutely not. And in modern Fleming and Flemish nationalism has always meant "I'm a Dutch speaker before a French speaker in Belgium"...which gradually evolved into the territorial idea of Flanders as a unilingual entity you have now and the "Flemish minority" in Brussels. Technically Limburgers could be considered a different ethnicity to actual Flemings, but their Stockholm Syndrome the political evolution of Belgium dictates they consider themselves Flemish. Flemish identity can be very politically driven as a concept.


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Do you think that the lack of a strong Belgian identity/patriotism is partly responsible for issues like Molenbeek?

Do you mean specifically the terrorism or the general delinquency perceived in these places?

No, for me its a failure of the relevant state institutions being able to act effectively that is the direct cause. Street policing, child services, education, internal intelligence, welfare (that left a gaping hole for the extremist "non-profits" to fill), etc. All of those things the Netherlands does better and it shows on our streets compared to theres...we are a ing freak show here in BXL but nobody wants to actually intervene.  

An indirect cause of this could be the dismantling and underfunding of state institutions caused by lack of strong Belgian patriotism. But I really don't get the very French argument that somehow this would have all been avoided if they had had laicité and patriotism classes at school or worse, military service...its like these people never met rebellious school kids.
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Laki
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« Reply #529 on: November 03, 2019, 07:00:51 am »

Theo Francken prijst Donald Trump: “Hij staat aan de kant van de kleine man, van het volk”

Theo Francken praises Donald Trump: "He sides with the side of the small man, the people". He has realized a lot in his first term. Trump has vision, direction and an agenda.
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Laki
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« Reply #530 on: November 03, 2019, 08:27:41 am »



"If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders becomes the nominee, i'll support Trump".

Hmm, i now know who not to vote for.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #531 on: November 05, 2019, 05:43:16 am »

Talks have broken down between N-VA and PS over the regionalisation of social security.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #532 on: November 12, 2019, 03:56:35 pm »

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #533 on: November 13, 2019, 05:40:04 pm »

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #534 on: November 14, 2019, 05:41:19 am »

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?

There is more a difference in style than in their ideas as both are on the right of the party. GLB is more socially liberal in the American sense I guess, he's not against good ideas if they come from the left of the party but he still hangs out with Francken, is hard on immigration,etc. He's got the support of Reynders, Michel and the rest of the barons., but he's definitely a maverick more than a manager who loves debating and provoking. But he's still learning I guess.

Ducarme is the kind of guy that attracts Destexhe voters. An older demographic . He's basically there to be a stone in the shoe of GLB as they both hate each other (refused to debate each other in the aftermath). The kind politician that thinks speaking with a raised voice on a debate platform is enough.

Ducarme definitely isn't a good fit for leader. GLB is clearly talented but he can also be a divisive figure and he ran their worst campaign for quite awhile in May.  Either way MR need to be careful they don't lose their loyal centrist voters to cdH/Défi . A lot of people who vote MR don't have time for big mouths, they just want someone to protect their tax rates.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #535 on: November 14, 2019, 08:48:59 am »

Meanwhile in Flanders, there is typically more theatrical politics at play. First, the burning down of a protracted asylum seeker hostel in Bilzen, prompting internet comments wishing there were people in it.
Then there is a big debate over culture subsidies. N-VA announced proudly they would cut it massively and it has suddenly received an unlikely backlash in some parts.

sp.a have also elected a new president : Conner Rousseau, a young Flemish parliament member from Gent who is close to the Combrez wing of the party, so no real change in line of direction, other than trying to understand the "ok boomer" crowd better.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #536 on: November 14, 2019, 09:41:03 am »

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?

There is more a difference in style than in their ideas as both are on the right of the party. GLB is more socially liberal in the American sense I guess, he's not against good ideas if they come from the left of the party but he still hangs out with Francken, is hard on immigration,etc. He's got the support of Reynders, Michel and the rest of the barons., but he's definitely a maverick more than a manager who loves debating and provoking. But he's still learning I guess.

Ducarme is the kind of guy that attracts Destexhe voters. An older demographic . He's basically there to be a stone in the shoe of GLB as they both hate each other (refused to debate each other in the aftermath). The kind politician that thinks speaking with a raised voice on a debate platform is enough.

Ducarme definitely isn't a good fit for leader. GLB is clearly talented but he can also be a divisive figure and he ran their worst campaign for quite awhile in May.  Either way MR need to be careful they don't lose their loyal centrist voters to cdH/Défi . A lot of people who vote MR don't have time for big mouths, they just want someone to protect their tax rates.

Who do you think will win? GLB?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #537 on: November 14, 2019, 09:50:46 am »

Results of first round presidency of MR :

Georges-Louis Bouchez : 6044
Ducarme : 3405
Goffin ; 1521
Defraigne : 1899
Barzin : 685

It will be Ducarme vs GLB. Pretty clear that the MR base is swinging rightwards.

So what's the difference between them politically? And who would be a better leader for the party?

There is more a difference in style than in their ideas as both are on the right of the party. GLB is more socially liberal in the American sense I guess, he's not against good ideas if they come from the left of the party but he still hangs out with Francken, is hard on immigration,etc. He's got the support of Reynders, Michel and the rest of the barons., but he's definitely a maverick more than a manager who loves debating and provoking. But he's still learning I guess.

Ducarme is the kind of guy that attracts Destexhe voters. An older demographic . He's basically there to be a stone in the shoe of GLB as they both hate each other (refused to debate each other in the aftermath). The kind politician that thinks speaking with a raised voice on a debate platform is enough.

Ducarme definitely isn't a good fit for leader. GLB is clearly talented but he can also be a divisive figure and he ran their worst campaign for quite awhile in May.  Either way MR need to be careful they don't lose their loyal centrist voters to cdH/Défi . A lot of people who vote MR don't have time for big mouths, they just want someone to protect their tax rates.

Who do you think will win? GLB?

Easily.

But the fact that there is a second round is a blow in itself to his credentials...hence why Ducarme was smug afterwards.
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Laki
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« Reply #538 on: November 16, 2019, 08:08:25 am »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 08:12:47 am by Laki »

In Flanders, Walter De Donder (Kabouter Plop, The Mayor from Samson & Gert -> two child shows) and Sammy Mehdi are the favourites for CD&V. De Donder would be a turn to the right while Mehdi would be a turn to the left.



vs



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Estrella
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« Reply #539 on: November 16, 2019, 12:24:29 pm »

In Flanders, Walter De Donder (Kabouter Plop, The Mayor from Samson & Gert -> two child shows) and Sammy Mehdi are the favourites for CD&V. De Donder would be a turn to the right while Mehdi would be a turn to the left.

What exactly would that entail? Would a turn to the right mean moving closer to the N-VA (more economically liberal and nationalist) and a turn to the left becoming something like ChristenUnie?

And, more generally, who votes for CD&V, other than retirees and farmers? Is the religious immigrant vote actually significant?
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Laki
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« Reply #540 on: November 16, 2019, 02:50:48 pm »

In Flanders, Walter De Donder (Kabouter Plop, The Mayor from Samson & Gert -> two child shows) and Sammy Mehdi are the favourites for CD&V. De Donder would be a turn to the right while Mehdi would be a turn to the left.

What exactly would that entail? Would a turn to the right mean moving closer to the N-VA (more economically liberal and nationalist) and a turn to the left becoming something like ChristenUnie?

And, more generally, who votes for CD&V, other than retirees and farmers? Is the religious immigrant vote actually significant?

Hard to predict, but i think you're right there.

I don't know, conservatives, religious people also vote CD&V. It has no support from the youth. In pollings between 18 and 25 years old, both s.pa and CD&V score below 5%. VB, Open VLD, N-VA, Groen and PVDA do better among youngsters. I have to meet a youngster who back them. I have a lot of PVDA friends here, but Vlaams Belang is really popular in my neighbourhood and friend circle.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #541 on: November 17, 2019, 05:04:25 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 05:18:06 am by Zinneke »

In Flanders, Walter De Donder (Kabouter Plop, The Mayor from Samson & Gert -> two child shows) and Sammy Mehdi are the favourites for CD&V. De Donder would be a turn to the right while Mehdi would be a turn to the left.

What exactly would that entail? Would a turn to the right mean moving closer to the N-VA (more economically liberal and nationalist) and a turn to the left becoming something like ChristenUnie?

They have a different purpose to both those parties, as they are a patrician party that seeks government to protect what remains of their pillar (the "Boerenbond", the mutuality, their hold on Flemish education, just to name a few examples). Some on the Right of the party want to distance themselves more from the Christian civil society actors to become NVA light but the garden gnome guy is still pretty traditional.

Also Mahdi is more right-wing than the ChristenUnie in general. I'd actually argue he's more right-wing than the incumbent Wouter Beke but I'm interested in what Laki thinks.
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« Reply #542 on: November 20, 2019, 02:34:13 am »

Does Belgium yet have a national government.  They took a record 583 days in one earlier and with how fragmented seems like forming a national one before New Year will be tough.  I suspect though socialists and/or Greens will be included this time while between Liberals and Christian Democrats, one or both will be.  Since Liberalism is different in Europe than English speaking world, which would be more open to a left wing one and which more for a right wing one of Christian Democrats and Liberals?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #543 on: November 20, 2019, 05:40:49 am »

The garden gnome didn't get through the CD&V first round in the end. Joachim Coens will face off against Samy Mahdi. Coens is ACW so economically quite left-wing but socially he is keen on emphasising CD&Vs conservative credentials.

@mileslunn, in general liberals here are more right-wing . But it can vary.
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Laki
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« Reply #544 on: November 20, 2019, 09:54:22 am »

Does Belgium yet have a national government.  They took a record 583 days in one earlier and with how fragmented seems like forming a national one before New Year will be tough.  I suspect though socialists and/or Greens will be included this time while between Liberals and Christian Democrats, one or both will be.  Since Liberalism is different in Europe than English speaking world, which would be more open to a left wing one and which more for a right wing one of Christian Democrats and Liberals?

Liberals wanted to have a right-wing coalition. CD&V prefers right-wing coalition as well.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #545 on: November 30, 2019, 07:46:38 am »

GLB comfortably wins MR leadership second round 62-38 share against Ducarme, and already promotes Phillippe Goffin to Foreign Secretary.
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Laki
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« Reply #546 on: November 30, 2019, 11:29:44 am »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 11:33:31 am by Laki »

I support Mahdi. My mom said he stands for radical christian democracy, while Coens stands for nothing and is more of the same, no charisma, no story, not appealing to voters, another nobody middle-of-the-way christian democrat with no real proposals but entering any coalition they can. If they vote for Mahdi, i might put christian democrat on my to watchlist for the next elections, although it's still a 5% chance i'll vote for them, and I don't vote in European elections for EPP. Walter De Donder who already lost would have been a fresh choice with a clear right-of-center on immigration view, so that would have been an interesting choice at well.
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Laki
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« Reply #547 on: December 02, 2019, 05:45:32 am »

Apparently there have been talks for a green - social democrat - liberal coalition. N-VA said the Open VLD supporters wouldn't appreciate this move, especially since this would have a minority on flemish side.

Though it's the coallition i want.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #548 on: December 02, 2019, 08:53:57 am »

De Clerq, Somers and other VLD progressives are supportive of the idea. They'd have a lot of influence unlike last time where MVA dominated the agenda through irregular tactics.

But I agree with De Wever that we should try to have a majority on both sides. Or move forward with a federal voting district, scrapping the constituencies, that way we have de jure federal parties and thus these coalitions would be easier. Won't happen though.
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Laki
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« Reply #549 on: December 03, 2019, 08:54:37 am »

Yes, i was once also a VLD progressive but got alienated by the party's right-wing stances esp. on economy. But VLD is here the king maker, and it would be ideal. It would still be a government where will be critical, and I would still be skeptical but it's much better than the alternative: N-VA, social democrats & liberals, which would be similar as the VVD - PvdA coalition once in the Netherlands, and where i would be scared to see the death of social democrats, although that can in time turn out to be well for the PVDA.
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