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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 48712 times)
Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #250 on: December 06, 2018, 05:59:06 pm »

“I’m going to Marrakech, but I’ll respect the constitution”

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Zinneke
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« Reply #251 on: December 07, 2018, 02:58:39 am »

The party that comes off worse off than this, is of course, MR, who are basically being subject to the exact narrative that the opposition had concocted i.e that they are the stooges of the N-VA. They're heading for total obliteration in Brussels and potentially losing their majority in Wallonia (although they should still hold up well). N-VA chief "mistake" is humiliating the one relevant ally they had. It might be a calculated move to put regional decentralisation back on the agenda.

We are heading for a political blockage on a higher scale than 2010-2012 IMO. All three regions will vote differently or have different party configurations. Unless liberals+greens+christian democrats can form an interesting majority, it looks very bad...

The coalition in Antwerp and the opening PS left for a PS - N-VA hints towards a soc dem + liberal + nationalist coalition possibly. The possibility of a green + liberal + national coalition is now very unlikely, which some thought (incl. myself) was one of the most plausible scenario's, but after what happened in Antwerp and now in recent days, i think that option is off the table, especially because Ecolo is even more fiercely against N-VA than the Greens.

Very little chance the PS joins a federal coalition with N-VA after losing an election from bleeding voters to its left. What opening have PS left to N-VA since the failed 2010-2012 negotiation period?

Ironically, two days after I write that, the N-VA and PS are caught in a joint corruption scandal. Seems there are some dodgy links between an Antwerp construction company (remember what was said about there being an "immocratie" in that city) and a Liège-based pension fund.
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #252 on: December 08, 2018, 01:31:59 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2018, 04:01:38 pm by Lakigigar »

Teargas and watercannon against Hi-Viz protesters in Brussels

Migration Compact: Belgian government meets as fall of government looms

Bannon and Le Pen were also in the country



from left to right: Steve Bannon, Tom Van Grieken (chairman of Flemish Interest - far-right), Marine Le Pen (chairwoman of FN and French presidential candidate).

campaign poster translated: Protect Our Europe. Stop UN-suicide pact.

New polling:

Grand Baromètre: Ecolo, premier parti de Bruxelles

N-VA largest in Flanders and make gains since provincial elections back again. CD&V lose a bit. Far-right and far-left make gains too.
The Greens are the largest in Brussels regions, followed closely by MR.
PS stay largest in French-speaking region, while MR seems to lose a bit. Gains for the Green here as well.

Compared to last elections: losses for traditional parties, while the Greens, far-right, far-left and Défi are projected to make gains in number of seats.
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #253 on: December 08, 2018, 02:04:37 pm »

Thats not Modrikamen, I think its Radim Fiala

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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #254 on: December 08, 2018, 03:30:30 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2018, 03:37:19 pm by SunSt0rm »

NVA is out if Michel signs the Marrakesh agreement

De Wever: "If Michel goes to Marrakesh he in fact fired us from the government"
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #255 on: December 08, 2018, 04:01:13 pm »

Thats not Modrikamen, I think its Radim Fiala



Okay, you are right. I saw no information on the news websites, and i thought he looked similar to Modrikanen (and knew he had ties with Bannon over the newly formed European group: "The Movement").
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Diouf
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« Reply #256 on: December 08, 2018, 04:57:12 pm »

NVA is out if Michel signs the Marrakesh agreement

De Wever: "If Michel goes to Marrakesh he in fact fired us from the government"

Charles Michel live presser: "I take note that the N-VA leaves the Swedish majority"
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #257 on: December 08, 2018, 05:27:15 pm »

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/12/08/_road-to-minority-government-being-paved/

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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #258 on: December 08, 2018, 05:28:48 pm »

Thats not Modrikamen, I think its Radim Fiala



Okay, you are right. I saw no information on the news websites, and i thought he looked similar to Modrikanen (and knew he had ties with Bannon over the newly formed European group: "The Movement").

Indeed, but while Modrikamen is a hick he's also smart enough to distance himself from VB.

Let's hope that the establishment parties don't form a government for the sake of making it to May. It would be pitting the nationalists against the rest as a cleavage in any upcoming election.


Then again the whole point of this stunt is to have an election solely on the issue of immigration.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #259 on: December 09, 2018, 07:19:51 am »

Looking at the current composition of the Belgian parliament now that N-VA has left, could PS and CdH support the current government so it gets a majority again? Or they have no incentive to do so? (particularly PS)
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #260 on: December 09, 2018, 08:43:40 am »

Looking at the current composition of the Belgian parliament now that N-VA has left, could PS and CdH support the current government so it gets a majority again? Or they have no incentive to do so? (particularly PS)

cDH probably yes or more, but they won't be part of the government, but will support most measures i think (correct me if i'm wrong)
s.pa has already said that they will be constructive when it needs to, but that they won't offer blank cheques to the minority government. Same does apply for the greens. I assume PS does the same thing here.
N-VA have said to be constructive as well, mostly on issues that were already agreed before.
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #261 on: December 09, 2018, 08:53:16 am »

Some more articles

King Filip has accepted resignation of N-VA ministers

"It won't be a walk in the park"

"We've been turned out of the government"

Opposition parties offer minority government no blank cheques

"Important crossroads for nationalists"

Respect for Open VLD (dutch-speaking liberal), MR (french-speaking liberal) and CD&V (dutch-speaking catholics) for finishing the government, because that will be very hard to do, and will hurt them cause N-VA have now what they want: be in opposition and going after them. It's such a dirty trick to do.
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Diouf
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« Reply #262 on: December 09, 2018, 10:49:19 am »

Is a Luxembourg/Verhofstadt I coalition possible?

I guess, PS would be the most reluctant due to its expected losses towards the left in the election. But maybe di Rupo as PM would sooth that
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Zinneke
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« Reply #263 on: December 10, 2018, 03:05:17 am »
« Edited: December 10, 2018, 03:09:45 am by coloniac »

Looking at the current composition of the Belgian parliament now that N-VA has left, could PS and CdH support the current government so it gets a majority again? Or they have no incentive to do so? (particularly PS)

cDH probably yes or more, but they won't be part of the government, but will support most measures i think (correct me if i'm wrong)

Difficult to say because they have still been critical of the federal government, but at the same time entertain good relations with MR. I think their main objection was the N-VA though so it would not surprise me.

Is a Luxembourg/Verhofstadt I coalition possible?

To pass softer migration policy, yes. Any other policy this close to an election? Basic game theory dictates both the Greens and the PS have a much bigger incentives to not enter such a coalition as a "No True Scotsman" argument going into the election.

And I think VLD have learnt their lesson with Verhofstadt I. Given it took an almighty crisis to get Di Rupo I form and VLD still sat that one out and only supported the state reform, I don't think they would accept another major grand coalition.

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No chance Di Rupo returns as PM and very little chance PS get the premiership if VLD stay.  
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #264 on: December 18, 2018, 10:49:43 am »
« Edited: December 18, 2018, 11:06:48 am by Lakigigar »

I have my doubts over this poll. It has big differences with the other poll two weeks ago.

Nationalists remain the biggest in new poll



Far-left lose a lot here, but it doesn't make sense, and i have a hard time believing that the Greens will have 16% of the vote. Socialists also only 9% which is also their most terrible poll in three years. Really bad poll for the red political parties or the left-wing in general. Every right-wing party makes gains here, which is weird because usually the opposition gains and that's the left-wing.

Greens top the poll in Brussels



Greens surge a lot, which is weird because the Flemish greens are now independent in Brussels (and even they have 4% of the vote). Good poll for the far-left here. Terrible poll for liberals and social democrats. Communists almost bigger than social democrats. Nationalists gain a bit.

Flemish nationalist Theo Francken is Flanders’ most popular politician



In French-speaking Belgium, big losses for liberals and social democrats, big gains for communists and greens!

Overall, best poll ever (by far) for the Greens, because in every region they've never polled as high as now.

_____

Poll was partly taken before the government crisis.
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #265 on: December 18, 2018, 11:08:51 am »

National Bank: “Fall of government would be a bad sign”

Socialist no confidence motion to bring down Michel II?

PM Michel rejects "N-VA blackmail"

Government could fall again, and this would cause snap elections in january. They'll probably right now file a motion of no confidence, which seems to be supported by socialists, greens, nationalists, far-left and far-right.
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Heat
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« Reply #266 on: December 18, 2018, 01:30:53 pm »

VLD at 18%, lmao what
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #267 on: December 18, 2018, 02:03:29 pm »

Government has fallen. PM goes to the King to file his resignment after only 8 days.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #268 on: December 18, 2018, 02:24:08 pm »

Why do the Flemish Dutch speaking parties even bother with contesting the elections in Brussels? (other than the N-VA of course)

Wouldn't it be better for them to simply endorse their sister Walloon equivalent? (so CD&V endorses CDH, Open VLD endorses MR and sp.a endorses PS)

They have a small percentage of the vote, but they still act as a spoiler for their more relevant Walloon equivalent.
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #269 on: December 18, 2018, 02:46:47 pm »

Why do the Flemish Dutch speaking parties even bother with contesting the elections in Brussels? (other than the N-VA of course)

Wouldn't it be better for them to simply endorse their sister Walloon equivalent? (so CD&V endorses CDH, Open VLD endorses MR and sp.a endorses PS)

They have a small percentage of the vote, but they still act as a spoiler for their more relevant Walloon equivalent.

Partly because those parties might have a slightly different program than their sister parties, and partly because different people are candidate on a list, and partly because those people might vote for the only Flemish party that contests the elections, instead of voting for their sister party (i think).
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Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
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« Reply #270 on: December 18, 2018, 02:51:38 pm »
« Edited: December 18, 2018, 02:56:37 pm by Lakigigar »

Apparently, during his last speech, Michel tried to do some concessions to the left, with doing a lot of ambitious leftist proposals that stunned political analists in order to save his government. But it didn't help because the government falls. Snap elections aren't likely though, because the experts said that this is a government in current affairs, which is maybe a good thing, as elections in january (three elections in one year) would have a bit too much, and wouldn't have offered anything as it is very unlikely a government would have formed between january and may (as they would want to wait what the results would have been for regional elections).

The Flemish liberal chairwoman did sent a tweet where she explained (in different words) that she wasn't very happy with the concessions the prime minister offered to the left, so this once again proves that the Flemish liberals are more right-wing on economic issues than the MR.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #271 on: December 18, 2018, 02:56:52 pm »

They don't act as a spoiler because they have their own electoral college and fixed seats guaranteed for them and they are required to form a majority in the Brussels government. (with an exception being made should the far right achieve a majority in the Flemish college, which has happened before with francophone votes and looks like it will happen again).

Some francophone parties sometimes instruct their voters to vote on Flemish lists (mainly the Catholics and greens).

It's to protect the Dutch speaking minority in Brussels. It's a shame though that some parties just use it as a vehicle for their careers and Flemish interests. But i think the Vlaamse Gewest does a good job in Brussels culturally so I am not complaining
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Zinneke
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« Reply #272 on: December 18, 2018, 04:00:34 pm »

And to link the Brussels absurdism with what is going on now, I think De Wever's plan actually rests on the N-VA gaining traction in Brussels on an anti-immigration platform with his whopping 6% and hoping the Flemish Right join him in holding the capital for ransom in exchange for confederalism, whatever that even is. Otherwise the francophones would be in a position of strength going into the inevitable deadlock.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #273 on: December 18, 2018, 04:05:40 pm »

Apparently, during his last speech, Michel tried to do some concessions to the left, with doing a lot of ambitious leftist proposals that stunned political analists in order to save his government. But it didn't help because the government falls. Snap elections aren't likely though, because the experts said that this is a government in current affairs, which is maybe a good thing, as elections in january (three elections in one year) would have a bit too much, and wouldn't have offered anything as it is very unlikely a government would have formed between january and may (as they would want to wait what the results would have been for regional elections).

The Flemish liberal chairwoman did sent a tweet where she explained (in different words) that she wasn't very happy with the concessions the prime minister offered to the left, so this once again proves that the Flemish liberals are more right-wing on economic issues than the MR.

So the government will just continue as a caretaker government until the next election?

"A government in current affairs" is an odd phrase, but I assume it just means a caretaker government.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #274 on: December 19, 2018, 05:10:24 am »

Apparently, during his last speech, Michel tried to do some concessions to the left, with doing a lot of ambitious leftist proposals that stunned political analists in order to save his government. But it didn't help because the government falls. Snap elections aren't likely though, because the experts said that this is a government in current affairs, which is maybe a good thing, as elections in january (three elections in one year) would have a bit too much, and wouldn't have offered anything as it is very unlikely a government would have formed between january and may (as they would want to wait what the results would have been for regional elections).

The Flemish liberal chairwoman did sent a tweet where she explained (in different words) that she wasn't very happy with the concessions the prime minister offered to the left, so this once again proves that the Flemish liberals are more right-wing on economic issues than the MR.

So the government will just continue as a caretaker government until the next election?

"A government in current affairs" is an odd phrase, but I assume it just means a caretaker government.

Yes, it woud be a caretaker government. But the parties still do their best to converge on things like foreign policy that are actually pretty straightforward for a country like Belgium (we went to war with a caretaker government). So it hardly paralyses even the federal institutions and its capacity to act as "Belgium" on the European/international stage.
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