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February 28, 2020, 07:57:00 am
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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 49278 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #300 on: February 05, 2019, 04:45:41 pm »
« edited: February 05, 2019, 04:51:54 pm by coloniac »

She will lead the CDV list in the "flandre orientale" province. So she will be elected and will probably be in the next government, probably not in charge of environment.

In terms of ministerial potential her career is as dead as a dodo man. The international press are going to pick up on the fact that she believed in chem trails and electromagnetic pollution, and make us the laughing stock of European small country politics one again. She was just a stooge for the Christian pillar lobbies that matter anyway, so agriculture and environment was her only realistic portfolio. The CD&V elders and the lobbies behind them will just pick another "Tim, nice but dim"-style figure like Schauvliege and move on. Hopefully less of a wackjob this time.  

This would all be much simpler if we had 1 single Federal environment and agricultural ministry btw. Absolutely no reason to decentralise it.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #301 on: February 27, 2019, 06:15:57 am »

Alain Destexhe has finally quit MR to form a new far right party. Surprised this is getting a lot of traction but then again things are relatively quiet despite having a sit in government.
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Umengus
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« Reply #302 on: February 27, 2019, 09:29:57 am »

Alain Destexhe has finally quit MR to form a new far right party. Surprised this is getting a lot of traction but then again things are relatively quiet despite having a sit in government.

An alliance with PP would give a good result (5-7%, maybe more) but it seems unlikely.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #303 on: March 08, 2019, 09:43:40 am »

Alain Destexhe has finally quit MR to form a new far right party. Surprised this is getting a lot of traction but then again things are relatively quiet despite having a sit in government.

An alliance with PP would give a good result (5-7%, maybe more) but it seems unlikely.

He has already picked up endorsements and defections from La Droite and several dissident bottom list MR types. PP seems to be a stretch though. Destexhe's message of copying the N-VA isnt just a plot to pick off their growing number of francophone voters in BXL, its also a nod to engaging in a politics that walks the tightrope of the cordon sanitaire, which is what the N-VA have done so effectively. PP are pretty extreme now compared to when they were first formed.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #304 on: March 11, 2019, 11:22:25 am »

Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #305 on: March 12, 2019, 02:49:30 pm »

Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.

it's  been like that for ages. The N-VA splitting from them just made them go into an outbidding process of who can antagonize francophones the most.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #306 on: March 14, 2019, 04:57:47 am »

Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.

it's  been like that for ages. The N-VA splitting from them just made them go into an outbidding process of who can antagonize francophones the most.

Who's more francophobic, the CD&V or the Open VLD? Not even asking about the N-VA because that's basically their platform...
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Umengus
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« Reply #307 on: March 14, 2019, 08:54:05 am »

Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.

it's  been like that for ages. The N-VA splitting from them just made them go into an outbidding process of who can antagonize francophones the most.

Who's more francophobic, the CD&V or the Open VLD? Not even asking about the N-VA because that's basically their platform...

CDV but "francophobic" is exagerated.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #308 on: March 14, 2019, 10:51:05 am »

Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.

it's  been like that for ages. The N-VA splitting from them just made them go into an outbidding process of who can antagonize francophones the most.

Who's more francophobic, the CD&V or the Open VLD? Not even asking about the N-VA because that's basically their platform...

CDV but "francophobic" is exagerated.

I mean CD&V is a very broad church too. The ACV wing for example don't really care, nor do the Farmers Union. But remember a lot of the decision making in CD&V ranks is about how to stay in power above all else. After they finally got ousted from government after a pretty huge amount of time in the late 90s, Leterme and other grandees realised in the early 2000s there was an electoral market in Flanders for a modern conservative centre-right party that advocated Flemish interests first and antagonised francophones. He could get VB voters (at one point the second largest party in Flanders in the early 2000s) and he could get disgruntled, culturally right VLD voters who did not like Verhofstadt's blue sky liberalism and alliance with the Greens especially (nevermind the socialists). So he invites a certain Geert Bourgeois and the right-wing of the Volksunie, now called N-VA, to form a cartel and add some legitmacy in traditional flamingant circles to his new movement.

Does Yves Leterme, a Standard Liege supporter with a french sounding name, actually support these views? Do any of the "Tsjeven'' actually have any views? Or are they all just destined to make Jesuit reasoning out of any political opportunity that arises like the one above. Im not questioning their credentials or their role in Belgian decentralisation, and its pretty obvious a lot of the lower and middle clergy played substantial roles in the Vlaamse Beweging in the post-WW2 era. But I think they tend to make token statements like "Minder Frans, Meer Nederlands" and the suggested boycott because its cheap and they don't necessarily have to deliver. Whatever the answer, their swing rightward backfired as people preferred the original to the PR machine.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #309 on: March 18, 2019, 10:30:19 am »

The Destexhe movement is gaining momentum on the MR right causing the defection of a regional deputy, effectively meaning that MR-cdH have no majority left (not that this matters so soon before the election,but still). They are also not required to have the 100 signatures to stand in Wallonia, so they are forming up their lists there too. They should do fairly well in Brabant Wallon but I can't see them doing well elsewhere unless they start absorbing larger swathes of local MR political entrepreneurs.

In Brussels, Claude Moniquet, a French-born ex-DGSE agent known for being wheeled out at every terrorist event as an expert on the matter by RTL, only to talk total sh**te, will stand as head of the regional list for Destexhe. C'est tout dire.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #310 on: April 03, 2019, 05:50:04 am »

Bumping this thread to observe a few trends in the campaign, that has just about started to kick into gear:

 - Charles Michel, sitting PM, being reconducted as the head of the MR and therefore of its campaign appears to have been a poor move. Not only is he tarnished with the "N-VA collaborator" brush, but their campaign appears to be in total dissaray as ministers "go their own way" and low level party figures like Georges-Louis Bouchez, known for his sympathies towards Theo Francken, are catapulted to the frontline of every media. Basically MR is running a campaign with several messages, due to some wanting to fight ECOLO on their own patch while others want to counter Destexhe´s list. The Climate Law that was proposed in response to the CLimate protests is a good example of that. Some insisted on cross-party backing, others on following the N-VA's line of "business first, trolling the ecologists second" as good policy in light of the coming election.

- cdH are in worse shape. One of their key party figures is in the midst of a vote rigging scandal, ex-leader Joelle Milquet and party grandee Francis Delperée have quit the campaign and party respectively for pastures new. And their leader and Walloon MP Maxime Prévot was caught on a skiing holiday while the Walloon government effectively lost its majority by one vote.

- Main thing in francophonia seems to be the rise of "celeb" candidates taking the heads of list. Mainly famous journalists but sometimes also sportsmen or singers. It seems that the parties have recognised having a face can get you extra votes, as the partiocracy is deeply unpopular so people tend to vote increasingly for individuals.

I haven't really followed Flanders closely enough and will leave that to Lakagigar. If I had to make a prediction it would still be a Green-Blue-Orange federal government.  

You can also take the electoral test courtesy of our public broadcasters :

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kies19/stemtest/#/

https://www.rtbf.be/info/election/test-electoral/#/
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DavidB.
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« Reply #311 on: April 03, 2019, 06:39:42 am »
« Edited: April 03, 2019, 10:03:06 am by DavidB. »

For the federal election:

VB 83%
PP 70%
CD&V 68%
N-VA 67%
cdH 61%
MR 60%
sp.a 51%
PS 50%
Défi 49%
PTB 47%
PVDA 46%
Ecolo 45%
Open VLD 44%
Groen 41%

Shame Destexhe's thingy is not part of this test.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #312 on: April 03, 2019, 06:57:25 am »

Did the French/Waloon test only:

75% PS
74% PTB
70% Ecolo
68% DeFi
64% CdH
51% MR
33% PP
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parochial boy
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« Reply #313 on: April 03, 2019, 11:38:11 am »

PS 91%
Ecolo 89%
PTB 84%
CDH 71%
Défi  65%
MR 49%
PP 21%

So the PTB are pretty meh on environmental policy then?

Also, what's the question about trade unions paying unemployment benefits?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #314 on: April 03, 2019, 01:30:45 pm »

PS 91%
Ecolo 89%
PTB 84%
CDH 71%
Défi  65%
MR 49%
PP 21%

So the PTB are pretty meh on environmental policy then?


I would say it depends. PTB Herstal is a different animal to PTB Ixelles. But then the same can be said of other parties when it comes to other policies. In general, their nostalgia for reopening the coal plants and steel industries is somewhat dwindling and their becoming more eco-centred, but unlike ECOLO they do not engage in de-growth theories, etc.

I think you also didn't get PTB as much as thought because they are still considerably to the left of pretty much any "far left" party in Western Europe. Podemos, FI, Sinistra, SP all got nothing on Comdrade Raoul.

Quote
Also, what's the question about trade unions paying unemployment benefits?

Quote
Les syndicats sont chargés du paiement des allocations de chômage à leurs membres. En effet, le montant des allocations de chômage est calculé par l’ONEM (Office national de l’Emploi) qui donne ensuite au syndicat du travailleur l’ordre de payer les allocations. Les syndicats sont également présents et peuvent aider les demandeurs d’emploi lors des contrôles de disponibilité et d’effectivité de recherche d’emploi menés par l’Onem. Toutefois, un travailleur n’est jamais obligé de s’affilier à un syndicat. Il existe dès lors une caisse auxiliaire de paiement des allocations de chômage pour les personnes qui ne sont pas syndiquées, communément appelée la CAPAC.

Yeah, as a tradition allocation of unemployment benefit is managed by the unions if and only if you are unionised which I find somewhat absurd but Belgians, especially unions, love their traditions, especially when they are absurd. ECOLO claim its more efficient though and unlike the other parties they don't have a vested interest in bloated union bureaucracy.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #315 on: April 24, 2019, 08:37:40 am »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_barometre-politique-vers-une-vague-verte-le-26-mai?id=10202764

New polls, probably the last big one before the election.
Main new trend is Greens in WalloBrux on the rise, and MR crumbling.

Very low key campaign so far, even the N-VA seem tired of the process before it has even begun. The local election probably  didn't help.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #316 on: April 24, 2019, 09:33:51 am »
« Edited: April 24, 2019, 09:47:17 am by Lechasseur »

I got the following scores:
MR 77%
PP 64%
CdH 64%
Défi 54%
PTB 54%
écolo 52%
PS 46%
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« Reply #317 on: April 24, 2019, 05:33:46 pm »

Elections fédérales

PS 89%
Ecolo 83%
PTB 83%
CdH 71%
Défi 71%
MR 54%
PP 12%

Moderate Hero
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #318 on: April 24, 2019, 05:45:19 pm »

Ahhh, I love doing those tests with only minimal knowledge about situation in subject political scene.

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Lechasseur
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« Reply #319 on: April 25, 2019, 12:43:14 am »

Ahhh, I love doing those tests with only minimal knowledge about situation in subject political scene.

I actually know the Belgian political situation/scene well, so my results should be quite accurate as I took the quiz taking into account the situation in Belgium
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parochial boy
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« Reply #320 on: April 25, 2019, 02:04:26 am »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_barometre-politique-vers-une-vague-verte-le-26-mai?id=10202764

New polls, probably the last big one before the election.
Main new trend is Greens in WalloBrux on the rise, and MR crumbling.

Very low key campaign so far, even the N-VA seem tired of the process before it has even begun. The local election probably  didn't help.
Two questions - what are the odds of a left led government coming out of this? left parties seem to be dominating in Bruxelles and Wallonia? (also, that poll seems wildly optimistic from a left-wing perspective, is PVDA-Groen-Sp.A getting a third of the vote in Flanders really realistic?)

Also, what exactly do the PS have to do to not be the largest party in Wallonia?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #321 on: April 25, 2019, 10:36:27 am »
« Edited: April 25, 2019, 10:50:17 am by coloniac »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_barometre-politique-vers-une-vague-verte-le-26-mai?id=10202764

New polls, probably the last big one before the election.
Main new trend is Greens in WalloBrux on the rise, and MR crumbling.

Very low key campaign so far, even the N-VA seem tired of the process before it has even begun. The local election probably  didn't help.
Two questions - what are the odds of a left led government coming out of this? left parties seem to be dominating in Bruxelles and Wallonia?

this is a nice article by rtbf  on possible configurations and seat breakdown. I will go into it in more detail for non- French speakers when I am on a laptop.

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_barometre-politique-quelles-coalitions-sont-possibles-au-federal-et-en-wallonie?id=10203874

Your best hope for a federal government  that is to the left is an " Olivier" aka Greens, Socialists, and Christian Democrats.

Quote
also, that poll seems wildly optimistic from a left-wing perspective, is PVDA-Groen-Sp.A getting a third of the vote in Flanders really realistic?)

I think PVDA are overpolled but its an indication that if the issues change then there is a way back for the Flemish Left, yes.

Quote
Also, what exactly do the PS have to do to not be the largest party in Wallonia?

Have a massive row with the FGTB? Honestly the PS vote is still on the decline though if you look at it from a macrohistorical perspective. There's every chance they lose top spot to Ecolo in both regions if climate takes over the debate.

another way to understand sedentary nature of Walloon politics is to look what is going on in Neufchateau right now, albeit with a different establishment party the cdH. The local branch led by heavy hitter of the party Dmitri Fourny essentially rigged the local elections, "developing country" style, with Fourny and 7 members of his family criminally charged. and guess what, the court has decided on a record and he has decided to rerun. I will still bet my last penny the local cdH win, led by Fourny and his family/mates. It doesn't matter if its orange, red or blue, most Walloon communes work this way.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #322 on: April 25, 2019, 12:10:26 pm »

Alain Destexhe has finally quit MR to form a new far right party. Surprised this is getting a lot of traction but then again things are relatively quiet despite having a sit in government.

An alliance with PP would give a good result (5-7%, maybe more) but it seems unlikely.

LD's head of list Claude Moniquet confirms now that there is an electoral accord with PP (that he insists is only for the election) in Brussels to combine vote share in order to try and reach regional threshold - with personal preference votes deciding who gets in. PTB have similar arrangement with an animal right party and another anticapitalist party.
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« Reply #323 on: May 02, 2019, 01:59:39 pm »

anything new here?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #324 on: May 03, 2019, 05:07:47 am »


There was the 1st of May proceedings, which are an important day for the left but now also for the liberals to present their incentives to workers. During an election year it becomes particularly animated, in this case FGTB (largest Socialist union in Belgium) President Thierry Bodson seemed to have a dig at ECOLO by saying that any party that favoured climate policy over the urgent requirement for socio-economic reforms in favour of workers would not receive the FGTB's support. It comes also as the Liège branch of the FGTB became the first to break with the PS and start to court PTB. If that pressure increases both PS and ECOLO might be tempted to include PTB into their eventual Walloon coalition.

On the Flemish side N-VA President De Wever is really pushing the idea that if things stay the same the Flemish white collared middle class will get a "tsunami" of tax measures on their incomes by the protracted new Green-orientated government. He's now gambling on the 2014 strategy of saying "vote for us if you do not want the Francophone Left to govern" rather than focussing on immigration, which seems a better strategy to regain ground with swing VB-NVA voters. VB can always "outbid" N-VA on immigration but N-VA can always point to their record of actually beating the Francophone Left in return.

In Brussels there is a scandal in Schaerbeek over cdH and PS councillors pushing their "communities" to revolt against the authorities because a 4 year old girl was allegedly raped in her school. It turns out that she had an infection, now recognised as such by the parents themselves, but thanks to social media baiting including from the two councillor and a dense congregation of very dense people there was a "gathering" outside the school and some threw rocks at staff members, prompting the Défi Mayor to have to intervene with police. Trust in institutions is very low in Belgium as you can imagine, but this was still a nasty episode and the PS and cdH councillors are being (rightfully) villified for their role in it.

Anyway going back to the RTBF article and the possible permutations for a federal government given this seat composition :



National Union, 102 seats : Christian Democrats, Liberals, Socialists, Greens. Not sure why this is even considered as its electoral suicide for the Flemish Liberals and Christian Democrats and the Greens in general. Its N-VA's wet dream although unlike 2012-2014 it still would mean a Flemish majority is present in the federal government so not as undemocratic.

Variations of the National Union : Same as above but taking away parties such as sp.a or cdH because they lost seats, or even as the article states taking away the PS because the Flemish Right needs a scalp. Not going to happen easily either way though.

The Olive Tree : Christian Democrats, Socialists, Greens. This is a clear centre-left government that is associated with the somewhat disastrous Walloon government of the same name, so I cannot see CD&V entering this formula. But don't underestimate the ability of the Christian pillar to put their bargaining arrangements above ideological tenets or consistency with their previous actions, so its still a possibility.  

The "Rainbow/Purple+" : Basically the same as Verhofstadt I so Greens, Liberals, and Socialists. This may seem like electoral hara-kiri for the Liberals given how the first Verhofstadt government has worked out but in both parties cases it actually makes more sense than in 1999. For VLD they have already lost their hard right faction to the N-VA and if they present themselves as the internal opposition to "inevitable" Green tax rises it might get them some credit in upper Flemish middle class circles. They have also governed with Groen in places like Mechelen very successfully. For MR it has become clear that actually a lot of their electorate find their rightwards turn incoherent and the actions of a vocal minority. A lot of party grandees are saying that the decision to have the face of the campaign be Georges-Louis Bouchez, a member of the hard right in MR, has been disastrous and that the party needs to regain credibility with its traditional base.

Overall I think the last option is the most likely as things stand, but even more likely is a longer negotiation process that last time out.

Note that the N-VA doesn't appear to be in any scenario, and that's pretty much to be expected because of the MR collapse and their relatively poor result. N-VA have said they will nto govern with ECOLO because they are crypto-communists and won't govern with "Di Rupo-led PS" hinting that perhaps a PS-NVA accord is possible if Di Rupo steps aside.
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