Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 24, 2020, 03:05:11 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, The Chad Pygmy Marmosets)
  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 24 Print
Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 48787 times)
Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,872
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: May 26, 2019, 08:55:12 am »

But in Tongeren N-VA loses a lot to Open VLD instead of VB. Why would people switch from N-VA to Open VLD? Do they think the N-VA has become too right-wing?

Not fully counted, it's a small community inside a canton that is counted (the smallest county in Belgium with only like 100 inhabitants, so i wouldn't pay a lot of attention to it).
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: May 26, 2019, 09:09:51 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 09:48:53 am by coloniac »

First exit polls for Francophone Belgium

https://m.rtl.be/info/1127524


Disgusted.

I guess the key questions now are whether PTB make threshold in Bxl and Défi in Wallonia, and if PS and Écolo can hold a majority.

Écolo appear to have bombed in Wallonia.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,950
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: 0.97, S: 5.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: May 26, 2019, 09:33:17 am »

What a bizarre VRT report. Some VRT lady in a car with an undecided voter judging politicians (mostly female ones) based on their apperance on promotion flyers.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,058
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: May 26, 2019, 09:51:09 am »

First exit polls for Francophone Belgium

https://m.rtl.be/info/1127524


Disgusted.

I guess the key questions now are whether PTB make threshold in Bxl and Défi in Wallonia, and if PS and Écolo can hold a majority.

Écolo appear to have bombed in Wallonia.

This is a pretty strong result for the PS, correct? And a relative disappointment for Ecolo?
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: May 26, 2019, 09:57:30 am »

First exit polls for Francophone Belgium

https://m.rtl.be/info/1127524


Disgusted.

I guess the key questions now are whether PTB make threshold in Bxl and Défi in Wallonia, and if PS and Écolo can hold a majority.

Écolo appear to have bombed in Wallonia.

This is a pretty strong result for the PS, correct? And a relative disappointment for Ecolo?

Yes.
Écolo had a very bad to the end of the campaign.
PS are still on the decline but they just have too much power through their union and clientelist links to be shaken.
In the end Écolo were counting on environment dominating the campaign and mainly MR voters flocking their way. When Écolo got caught with that electoral tract I think people realised they are just an amateuresque version of PS.

I really think cdH and MR missed a trick not allowing the PS to see out their term in Wallonia rather than governing for 2 measly years and then entering these as the incumbent.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: May 26, 2019, 10:01:23 am »

And the Flemish exit poll has N-VA and VB 1rst and second...both with a combined majority I think. This country is fcuked.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,950
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: 0.97, S: 5.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: May 26, 2019, 10:07:56 am »

Seems as if the N-VA is holding up better in the Antwerp metro than in places like Western Flanders, where VB's gains are through the roof.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: May 26, 2019, 10:15:51 am »

Looks like ECOLO are recovering from early exit poll underperformance thanks to a very strong showing in Liège.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: May 26, 2019, 10:18:03 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 10:21:23 am by coloniac »

Seems as if the N-VA is holding up better in the Antwerp metro than in places like Western Flanders, where VB's gains are through the roof.

And they are also holding up better in Vlaams Brabant. So DVL didn't have a net positive effect. And VB's vote is for "forgotten Flanders", NVA for successful Flanders.

Im off to election party.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,903
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: May 26, 2019, 10:30:15 am »

So if the majority of the Flemish parliament are separatists rather than confederalists, will we see any moves to actually split up the state?
Logged
Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,872
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: May 26, 2019, 10:30:35 am »



Black sunday confirmed
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: May 26, 2019, 10:43:53 am »

So if the majority of the Flemish parliament are separatists rather than confederalists, will we see any moves to actually split up the state?

I think the N-VA will have to advocate at the very least confederalism.

If the francophone parties have any marbles they will call the Flemish electorates bluff and offer them a referendum in exchange for a corridor between Brussels and Wallonia
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,058
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: May 26, 2019, 10:50:03 am »

So what kind of coalition seems likely at this point?
Logged
Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,872
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: May 26, 2019, 11:35:46 am »

They are already questioning the cordon sanitaire.

So what kind of coalition seems likely at this point?

Really no idea, it might take months, possibly up to a year to form a coalition.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,903
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: May 26, 2019, 11:40:24 am »

If Flanders were to leave, would N-VA and VB want to leave the EU as well? Have they ever released plans to how an independent Flemish state would function or is ir more vague dreams?
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,842


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: May 26, 2019, 11:50:19 am »

What's a good place for french language coverage? I'm on RTBF at the moment, but it's not particularly user friendly
Logged
Feel The Bern
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,872
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -2.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: May 26, 2019, 11:59:24 am »

If Flanders were to leave, would N-VA and VB want to leave the EU as well? Have they ever released plans to how an independent Flemish state would function or is ir more vague dreams?

VB Yes
N-VA no.
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,918


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: May 26, 2019, 12:17:34 pm »

Does any polling exist on where Brussels voters would go in an eventual breakup?
Logged
Lechasseur
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,201
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: May 26, 2019, 12:35:04 pm »

How come VB are doing so well this time?
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,950
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: 0.97, S: 5.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: May 26, 2019, 12:39:09 pm »

How come VB are doing so well this time?
N-VA were in the federal government and failed to deliver on their promises. VB portrayed them as weak on immigration, and the climate issue hurt them too, with N-VA mobility minister Ben Weyts toying with the idea of kilometer pricing for cars. In addition, the N-VA did zilch to pursue further autonomy for Flanders. Meanwhile, the N-VA did move the discourse to the right and normalized ideas and rhetoric that used to be off-limits for non-VB parties.

As a result, a lot of voters moved to VB but N-VA probably did attract voters from more centrist parties (looking at you, Flemish Brabant), resulting in a clear rightward shift as VB won a lot more than N-VA lost.
Logged
Lechasseur
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,201
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: May 26, 2019, 12:42:58 pm »

How come VB are doing so well this time?
N-VA were in the federal government and failed to deliver on their promises. VB portrayed them as weak on immigration, and the climate issue hurt them too, with N-VA mobility minister Ben Weyts toying with the idea of kilometer pricing for cars. In addition, the N-VA did zilch to pursue further autonomy for Flanders. Meanwhile, the N-VA did move the discourse to the right and normalized ideas and rhetoric that used to be off-limits for non-VB parties.

As a result, a lot of voters moved to VB but N-VA probably did attract voters from more centrist parties (looking at you, Flemish Brabant), resulting in a clear rightward shift as VB won a lot more than N-VA lost.

I mean that's the thing. These don't just seem to be vote trasnfers from NVA, they're getting votes from other parties too. How do people jump from say Open VLD to VB?
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,950
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: 0.97, S: 5.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: May 26, 2019, 12:48:15 pm »

I mean that's the thing. These don't just seem to be vote trasnfers from NVA, they're getting votes from other parties too. How do people jump from say Open VLD to VB?
They're getting votes from other parties too, but I think the N-VA may be gaining votes from parties like Open VLD and CD&V, thereby mitigating the losses to VB to a certain extent.

I think the step from Open VLD and especially CD&V to VB isn't too unrealistic to take for some, though. Especially thinking of small entrepreneurs and the like here, not the elites of course. Heard anecdotal evidence of a friend whose family moved from Open VLD to VB: "this time for Flanders." In that respect, Van Grieken's strategy has probably worked in "detoxifying" VB: he clearly comes across as more moderate than Dewinter. But clearly most of the VB vote came directly from the N-VA.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,753
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: May 26, 2019, 04:39:08 pm »

Looks like a great day in Belgium for extremist parties on both ends.  Biggest gains by Vlaams Belang on far right and Workers Party on far left.  Any chance either might be included or will a cordon sanitaire keep both out.  Also living here in Canada, sort of reminds me of last year's New Brunswick election; English speaking parts swung rightwards while French speaking parts leftwards and it seems here French speaking areas swinging to the left, Dutch speaking areas swinging to the right.

My understanding though is if separation occurs, Flanders would join the Netherlands as opposed to become its own country.  As for Brussels being an island inside Flemish territory, that would be a non-issue as long both areas remain part of the EU as there are no internal border controls due Scheghen Agreement and EU law states people have the right to live and work in any member state.  Only issue might be on taxes, what happens to someone who lives in Flemish territory but works in Brussels, which country would they pay their taxes to or would they split it.  I am assuming if like North America it would be where they reside not work.

If Flanders joined Netherlands, any chance Wallonia then might join France?  Another thing I've noticed when travelling to Belgium is in Flemish areas most know how to speak French but don't like using it while I think in Wallonia most don't speak Dutch.  Certainly with English, I found practically everyone in Flanders speaks English as a second language (sort of like Netherlands), but in Wallonia, I would say more don't know how to speak English than do (sort of like France).
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: May 26, 2019, 04:44:18 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 04:59:20 pm by coloniac »

I see people already making scenarios as to what would happen if there was a split etc.
Neither N-VA and VB ran on that program.
Just like the other right-wing populists in the EU, they moderated any revolutionary rhetoric of seperatism and split from the EU (N-VA have always been very much against sudden independence). They focused on immigration and stopping being governed by the Walloon Left. And a whole bunch of other issues like preserving company cars (which is so important to the Flemish citizen that isn't a city dweller).

Now they could use their newfound position to try and force, at most, confederalism. But none of the francophone parties will follow them through.

Like I said, if the Francophones have balls they can call the Flemish electorates bluff and stop Flemish nationalism as a devolutionary movement dead in its tracks by asking them for two referendums : independence of Flanders in exchange for referendum on status of the Brussels Rand. Essentially trading one go at Flemish independence for the return of the linguistic censii to determine what is and is not Flanders. Both of those things (the independence campaign and the return of linguistic census) could be terminal for the Flemish movement. N-VA would lose all credibility of being a strong and stable government party campaigning for Yes, VB would be basically carving out their proto fascist state losing a huge crown jewel that is Brussels and EU trade.

But the Francophone political class, just like its voters, its economy, its effing mentality ( I speak as a francophone, sorry if it offends) are sedentary. They're actually perfectly happy to play the long game and rinse themselves silly with mandates here and there, EU funds and projects, etc. With the possible exception of Maingain, none of them have the faintest idea what to do about Flemish nationalism, nor do I imagine many of the PS-types care, since their party has been essentially regionalist under a cape of "bisounours Belgicism" since the 1970s. And as it looks like the Brussels institutions are safe from N-VA control (Groen have beaten them in the electoral college), I predict the francophone political class will just rest on their constitutionally afforded laurels and we will have the same deadlock as in 2007 and 2010-2012. And like in both occasions eventually VB voters will flock back to the moderate nationalists (N-VA) to try to form a right-wing federal government. Rinse and repeat.  

so tldr : the scission of Belgium will not be on the agenda this legislative cycle

The question is at what point do francophone electorates get tired of the northern neighbours.


Anyway some other key questions that needed answering :


So what kind of coalition seems likely at this point?

The same one that negotiated the accord in 2012. So Tripartite + Greens, although VLD might pass again and rejoin in a minority government. Honestly its not a disaster if we stay in a "current affairs" government in the mean time. It means more power to parliament and that also mean the children inside have to compromise or face further disgruntlement with the political class.  

The key coalitions are at regional level. One they are formed we will see what can be done.

Will N-VA break the cordon sanitaire?

They say they will but they won't. Why? Because the VB score and the threat of VB+N-VA is their trump card in negotiations. They can't afford to lose that. But they can't ally with VB and ever be taken seriously by the francophones either.

Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,492
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: May 26, 2019, 05:01:54 pm »

Looks like a great day in Belgium for extremist parties on both ends.  Biggest gains by Vlaams Belang on far right and Workers Party on far left.  Any chance either might be included or will a cordon sanitaire keep both out.  Also living here in Canada, sort of reminds me of last year's New Brunswick election; English speaking parts swung rightwards while French speaking parts leftwards and it seems here French speaking areas swinging to the left, Dutch speaking areas swinging to the right.

My understanding though is if separation occurs, Flanders would join the Netherlands as opposed to become its own country.  As for Brussels being an island inside Flemish territory, that would be a non-issue as long both areas remain part of the EU as there are no internal border controls due Scheghen Agreement and EU law states people have the right to live and work in any member state.  Only issue might be on taxes, what happens to someone who lives in Flemish territory but works in Brussels, which country would they pay their taxes to or would they split it.  I am assuming if like North America it would be where they reside not work.

If Flanders joined Netherlands, any chance Wallonia then might join France?  Another thing I've noticed when travelling to Belgium is in Flemish areas most know how to speak French but don't like using it while I think in Wallonia most don't speak Dutch.  Certainly with English, I found practically everyone in Flanders speaks English as a second language (sort of like Netherlands), but in Wallonia, I would say more don't know how to speak English than do (sort of like France).

Flanders would not join the NL.
Wallonia would not join France, even less chance than the above.
Brussels would not be happy as an enclave of the Netherlands, or an indepedent Flanders. Its legal status is already incredibly tetchy.

These ideas are all interesting on paper to some but fail to take into account historical realities. Let's focus on the concrete results as they come in instead.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 24 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC