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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 48726 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #400 on: May 26, 2019, 05:14:12 pm »
« edited: May 27, 2019, 02:46:01 am by coloniac »

DierAnimal have their first seat in the Brussels parliament courtesy of the Flemish Francophone lists.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #401 on: May 26, 2019, 05:52:10 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 05:55:53 pm by coloniac »

Projected seat distribution for the Federal level

N-VA 25 (-8)
PS 19 (-4)
Vlaams Belang 18 (+15)
MR 15 (-5)
Ecolo 13 (+7)
CD&V 12 (-6)
Open Vld 12 (-2)
PTB*PVDA 12 (+12) -
SP.A 9 (-4)
Groen 8 (+2)
cdH 5 (-4)
Défi 2 (nc)
PP 0 (-1)

Based on these results, the Flemish leaders Combrez, Beke, Rutte and to a lesser extent De Wever have a lot of self-reflecting to do. PM Michel is toast. Bizarrely, none of the other Francophone leaders will really be at risk. Di Rupo will probably step aside permanently. Prévot can't be blamed.

I'll do region by region tomorrow. Wallonia and Brussels should be straightforward. Flanders ironically has the biggest headache for coalition making.
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Heat
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« Reply #402 on: May 26, 2019, 08:47:12 pm »

Projected seat distribution for the Federal level

N-VA 25 (-8)
PS 19 (-4)
Vlaams Belang 18 (+15)
MR 15 (-5)
Ecolo 13 (+7)
CD&V 12 (-6)
Open Vld 12 (-2)
PTB*PVDA 12 (+12) -
SP.A 9 (-4)
Groen 8 (+2)
cdH 5 (-4)
Défi 2 (nc)
PP 0 (-1)

Based on these results, the Flemish leaders Combrez, Beke, Rutte and to a lesser extent De Wever have a lot of self-reflecting to do. PM Michel is toast. Bizarrely, none of the other Francophone leaders will really be at risk. Di Rupo will probably step aside permanently. Prévot can't be blamed.

I'll do region by region tomorrow. Wallonia and Brussels should be straightforward. Flanders ironically has the biggest headache for coalition making.

The official results page (https://elections2019.belgium.be/fr/resultats-chiffres?el=CK&id=CKR00000) still has PS at 20 and MR at 14 with just 4 polling stations to go.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #403 on: May 27, 2019, 02:07:06 am »

Walloon Parliament 2019 :

PS 23 (-7)
MR 20 (-5)
Ecolo 12 (+8)
cdH 10 (-3)
PTB 10 (+8)
PP 0 (-1)

Likely Walloon majority : PS-ECOLO-cdH

Flemish Parliament 2019 :

N-VA 35 (-8)
VB 23 (+17)
CD&V 19 (-8)
Open Vld 16 (-3)
Groen 14 (+4)
sp.a 13 (-5)
PVDA+ 4 (+4)
UF 0 (-1)

Likely Flemish majority : N-VA-VLD-CDV-sp.a

Brussels Parliament 2019 :

FR
PS 17 (-4)
ECOLO 15 (+7)
MR 13 (-5)
Défi 10 (-2)
PTB 10 (+6)
cdH 6 (-3)
DierAnimal 1

Looks like DierAnimal actually got in on the francophone side! Even more humiliating for Destexhe then who couldn't get in.

NL
Groen 4
spa-One.Brussels 3
Open VLD 3
N-VA 3
PVDA 1
CD&V 1
Vlaams Belang 1
Agora* 1

*Agora are a citizens party that advocate a system whereby people are chosen at random and selected in a council to decide on public affairs. Very clever of them to stand on NL lists as they are popular with francophones but knew the threshold was difficult. There program is in English here : https://www.agora.brussels/?lang=en

Likely Brussels majority : FR --> PS-Défi-ECOLO NL --> Open Vld-Groen-sp.a


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Zinneke
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« Reply #404 on: May 27, 2019, 02:19:04 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 02:24:59 am by coloniac »

For the moment the two federal coalitions most likely are the previous "Swedish" coalition + ECOLO/groen, and the old "Rainbow"/Purple coalition (Green-Red-Blue) + Défi.  

We're in for a long protracted negotiation period.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #405 on: May 27, 2019, 02:40:37 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 02:53:32 am by coloniac »

Flemish parties in Brussels reached record shares and numbers of voters. Some 16.500 more compared to 2014. Mainly new parties like Agora and possibly ECOLO voters switching to Groen after their controversy and several Francophone political scientists calling for people to vote on Flemish lists. Decisive factor in blocking the N-VA in the Belgian capital.

Preference vote contest (means quite little in grand scheme of things these days but still interesting) :

1. Jambon (N-VA, Antwerp) 187,826 votes
2. Di Rupo (PS ,Hainaut) 123,809 votes (down a lot compared to 2014)
3. Theo Francken (N-VA ,Vlaams Brabant) 122,738 votes (excellent result given his constituency)
4. Tom Van Grieken (VB, Antwerp) 122,232 votes
5. Alexander de Croo (VLD, East Flanders) 80,283 votes



Also Georges-Louis Bouchez, the MR campaign spokesperson and all round fireband, failed to get a seat in Hainaut despite a strong preference vote score. His twitter is something to behold btw. Probably a big campaign mistake for MR to deploy this guy, not necessarily because of his ideas but his inexperience.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #406 on: May 27, 2019, 04:30:34 am »

Flemish Parliament 2019 :

N-VA 35 (-8)
VB 23 (+17)
CD&V 19 (-8)
Open Vld 16 (-3)
Groen 14 (+4)
sp.a 13 (-5)
PVDA+ 4 (+4)
UF 0 (-1)

Likely Flemish majority : N-VA-VLD-CDV-sp.a

Why with the sp.a? N-VA, Open VLD and CD&V have a majority already. Adding the sp.a would be even more difficult for the N-VA.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #407 on: May 27, 2019, 04:47:07 am »

You are right, they will likely reconduct the previous majority.

EDIT : like in 2010 (and 2014 with VLD) though they may take in one party as a "bridge" for the federal coalition but De Wever says he won't govern with the left.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #408 on: May 27, 2019, 04:56:34 am »

7sur7 have a very simple interactive electoral map :

https://www.7sur7.be/home/elections-consultez-la-carte-des-resultats-ici~a94d232b/



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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #409 on: May 27, 2019, 05:05:12 am »

Given that PS-Ecolo-PTB have a majority in Wallonia, why not go with a full left wing government coalition?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #410 on: May 27, 2019, 05:17:33 am »

Given that PS-Ecolo-PTB have a majority in Wallonia, why not go with a full left wing government coalition?

Its unlikely PS-ECOLO use that majority because it will alienate the Flemish parties they might be forced to work with at the federal level. Last time out PS-cdH and N-VA-CD&V (later VLD) immediately formed regional majorities and people predicted a massive block until MR ceded at the federal level. This time there is more of a likelihood that regional and federal coalition formations are thought out in tandem. Brussels will be the easiest one.

If they do use that majority though, I still woulnd't expect to see PTB ministers. They lack a lot of personnel. They're still growing as a party.  
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DavidB.
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« Reply #411 on: May 27, 2019, 06:24:00 am »

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.
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Feel The Bern
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« Reply #412 on: May 27, 2019, 06:29:59 am »

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.

Flemish Brabant has Maggie De Block effect of 2014 that is worn out.
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Feel The Bern
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« Reply #413 on: May 27, 2019, 06:47:58 am »

Given that PS-Ecolo-PTB have a majority in Wallonia, why not go with a full left wing government coalition?

It's a possibility if the Swedish coalition continues on Flemish level, but we might have a problem with the federal parliamant than.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #414 on: May 27, 2019, 07:08:05 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 07:18:56 am by coloniac »

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.

I said that nobody really deployed big hitters in East Flanders, but the fact that Alex de Croo (who is well like with rich and yuppies alike) was leading their federal list while Verhofdstadt was head of list for Europe probably helped their campaign here a lot. Also East Flanders is well off compared to West, and less traditionally nationalist compared to Antwerp. N-VA in East Flanders are a bit of a joke (Bracke and his conflicts of interest, Gent internal divisions).

Those southwestern communes are reasonably rich communes. The kind of people whose parents voted VLD.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #415 on: May 27, 2019, 07:17:28 am »

Why does Open VLD do so well in the southwest of Eastern Flanders? I expected them to do better in Flemish Brabant and worse there.

Flemish Brabant has Maggie De Block effect of 2014 that is worn out.

He's right that those are suburbs that usually did very well for VLD in the past though. I think Francken helped get them on board with N-VA in Flemish Brabant.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #416 on: May 27, 2019, 07:31:54 am »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 07:46:19 am by Lechasseur »

The King is to meet Bart De Wever and Elio Di Rupo this afternoon (3PM and 4PM respectively I believe).
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Zinneke
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« Reply #417 on: May 27, 2019, 07:34:37 am »

The King is to meet Bart De Wever and Elio Di Rupo this afternoon (3PM and 4PM respectively I believe).

whatyearisit.jpeg
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Zinneke
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« Reply #418 on: May 27, 2019, 12:18:30 pm »

From the ever present Pascal Delwit :

Wallonia electoral trends since 1946 (puts PS "win" into perspective) :




Flanders since 1995 :

 
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #419 on: May 30, 2019, 01:21:47 pm »

https://www.lalibre.be/actu/politique-belge/pourquoi-le-roi-a-opte-pour-didier-reynders-et-johan-vande-lanotte-comme-informateurs-5cefe18d7b50a62b5b9a9d8d?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2#cxrecs_s

Didier Reynders (MR) and Johan Vande Lanotte (SP.A) have been named as "informateurs" by the King.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #420 on: May 30, 2019, 01:29:33 pm »

How likely is it that either of them would be named formateur afterwards?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #421 on: May 30, 2019, 03:39:43 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2019, 04:31:45 pm by coloniac »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.

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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #422 on: May 31, 2019, 05:47:34 am »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)
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Zinneke
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« Reply #423 on: May 31, 2019, 06:33:56 am »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

The issue of not having a majority on both sides of the community divide is a big one for any party. Last time out there was no majority for the francophone side (De Weber Saïd he was uncomfortable with this, and I believe him because he genuinely believes the two democracy theory) but it was justified by the fact that PS-cdH tied themselves to each other.

In this case though VLD need to appear nationalist. Any party on the Flemish Right does. No True Scotsman taken to an entire political spectrum does that. You're now not a "Good Genuine Fleming" if you cater to the federal interest over narrow regional economic nationalism.

Quote
Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

Unlikely, but if we do adopt confederalism I think we'll also adopt a federal-wide constituency, and the parties will start running together again (while still having a separate structure).

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Lechasseur
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« Reply #424 on: May 31, 2019, 06:44:12 am »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

Yeah, splitting the parties on linguistic lines was a disaster imo, and I think it very heavily contributed to the situation we have today.
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