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  Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019
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Author Topic: Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal Election May 26, 2019  (Read 48799 times)
Lechasseur
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« Reply #425 on: May 31, 2019, 06:52:17 am »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-parti-populaire-c-est-fini-mischael-modrikamen-va-l-annoncer?id=10235195&fbclid=IwAR3Ms-t3ZukDyOIBs6GPmNswFrZzfCAWXVDACgql5wDhbGNL2WOa7MqeI_8

The Parti Populaire is going to be disbanded
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Zinneke
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« Reply #426 on: May 31, 2019, 07:22:26 am »
« Edited: May 31, 2019, 04:46:47 pm by coloniac »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

Yeah, splitting the parties on linguistic lines was a disaster imo, and I think it very heavily contributed to the situation we have today.

It's really not. The split federal constituencies made that a problem in the first place. But even if (just for the sake of counterfactual which is dodgy anyway) we theorise that the parties would have stuck together, the long run the CVP-PSC would have been heavily "Flemish dominated" and the PSB-BSP a "Walloon dominated", or at least perceived as such. And it would not stop parties like Rassemblement Wallon and Volksunie who are the parties that pressured the split along linguistic lines. Quite the contrary, they disappeared because the mainstream parties adopted their stances. Had the latter not done that then we'd have much bigger stints without government.


The real nail in the coffin was BHV being scinded rather than treated as a place where federal interests converged. Parties would have to find compromise if such an important part of the country had to be fought on a platform of reconciliation. And BHV is essentially future metropolitan Brussels and needs a common governance structure if we're going to run our greatest asset in our country (the EU NATO institutions) in a non-third world sh**thole manner. Instead we went for narrow linguistic nationalism.

Edit : I say we,  but the Flemish have to take the major part of the blame there. But VB was higher than it was now when that episode went down.
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Beagle
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« Reply #427 on: May 31, 2019, 07:45:34 am »

...

But the Francophone political class, just like its voters, its economy, its effing mentality ( I speak as a francophone, sorry if it offends) are sedentary. ...



Edit : I say we, the Flemish have to take the major part of the blame there. But VB was higher than it was now when that episode went down.

Now I am confused...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #428 on: May 31, 2019, 08:02:42 am »

...

But the Francophone political class, just like its voters, its economy, its effing mentality ( I speak as a francophone, sorry if it offends) are sedentary. ...



Edit : I say we, the Flemish have to take the major part of the blame there. But VB was higher than it was now when that episode went down.

Now I am confused...

In my OP I said "we" as Belgians went for narrow linguistic nationalism. But it was mainly Flemish political class driven movement. FDF also had extreme views on this but they don't have the electoral scores to back this up.

As a francophone Brusseleir I don't take any blame for BHV or wanting to enlarge Brussels, which is fundamentally not stripping any rights to Flemish speakers and instead giving a larger say in the capital's affairs.

You can be Flemish and francophone btw. They were the main target of original Flemish nationalism before Walloons (who some Flemish nationalists consider to be victims of francophone elites), as decedents of the old French administrative class.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #429 on: May 31, 2019, 12:42:26 pm »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

Yeah, splitting the parties on linguistic lines was a disaster imo, and I think it very heavily contributed to the situation we have today.

It's really not. The split federal constituencies made that a problem in the first place. But even if (just for the sake of counterfactual which is dodgy anyway) we theorise that the parties would have stuck together, the long run the CVP-PSC would have been heavily "Flemish dominated" and the PSB-BSP a "Walloon dominated", or at least perceived as such. And it would not stop parties like Rassemblement Wallon and Volksunie who are the parties that pressured the split along linguistic lines. Quite the contrary, they disappeared be side the mainstream parties adopted their stances. Had the latter not done that then we'd have much bigger stints without government.


The real nail in the coffin was BHV being scinded rather than treated as a place where federal interests converged. Parties would have to find compromise if such an important part of the country had to be fought on a platform of reconciliation. And BHV is essentially future metropolitan Brussels and needs a common governance structure if we're going to run our greatest asset as a country in a non-third world sh**thole manner. Instead we went for narrow linguistic nationalism.

Edit : I say we,  but the Flemish have to take the major part of the blame there. But VB was higher than it was now when that episode went down.

I agree, federalization was a mistake. Why did Belgium become federal and create split constituencies in the first place? Couldn't the government have forseen that it would have just made problems worse?
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #430 on: May 31, 2019, 02:02:13 pm »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_le-parti-populaire-c-est-fini-mischael-modrikamen-va-l-annoncer?id=10235195

The situation with PP is pretty confusing
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Zinneke
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« Reply #431 on: May 31, 2019, 11:51:14 pm »
« Edited: May 31, 2019, 11:57:12 pm by coloniac »

Vandelanotte extremely unlikely to impossible
Reynders...maybe although there will either be a procession of these kind of informateurs, explorateurs, formateurs etc or we will head for new elections.

It's all but done now that VLD has said they will not enter a federal coalition without a Flemish majority. That means N-VA involvement ( because VB and PVDA won't enter any federal coalition). N-VA rules out PS, ECOLO. So no federal majority possible.

We'll be heading for new federal elections.



Why is VLD rejecting a non Flemish majority coalition? I thought NVA and VB were the only ones that would care about that stuff?

Further reason to merge the equivalent parties IMO (PS/spa; CDV/CDH, etc)

Yeah, splitting the parties on linguistic lines was a disaster imo, and I think it very heavily contributed to the situation we have today.

It's really not. The split federal constituencies made that a problem in the first place. But even if (just for the sake of counterfactual which is dodgy anyway) we theorise that the parties would have stuck together, the long run the CVP-PSC would have been heavily "Flemish dominated" and the PSB-BSP a "Walloon dominated", or at least perceived as such. And it would not stop parties like Rassemblement Wallon and Volksunie who are the parties that pressured the split along linguistic lines. Quite the contrary, they disappeared be side the mainstream parties adopted their stances. Had the latter not done that then we'd have much bigger stints without government.


The real nail in the coffin was BHV being scinded rather than treated as a place where federal interests converged. Parties would have to find compromise if such an important part of the country had to be fought on a platform of reconciliation. And BHV is essentially future metropolitan Brussels and needs a common governance structure if we're going to run our greatest asset as a country in a non-third world sh**thole manner. Instead we went for narrow linguistic nationalism.

Edit : I say we,  but the Flemish have to take the major part of the blame there. But VB was higher than it was now when that episode went down.

I agree, federalization was a mistake. Why did Belgium become federal and create split constituencies in the first place? Couldn't the government have forseen that it would have just made problems worse?

(This is more "individual politics" but whatever Tongue )

Federalism was not a mistake in the sense that the Flemish movement as a cultural struggle and the Walloon industrial belt both had very legitimate claims for feeling disenfranchised in a Belgian unitary state. Flemish was marginalised as a language and the lifeblood of the Walloon economy was suddenly closed for reinvestment in new industries up north. The convergence was clear and I think we could have found a decent compromise between cultural and economic devolution, while still maintaining a strong effective Belgian state.

The issue of the constituencies is another matter. I think it harms directly the ability of federal debate to happen, and also it reinforces the traditional parties and harms smaller parties. Instead narrow interests are courted at provincial level and we don't have a proper federal debate on foreign policy, criminal justice, our reason to exist, etc. keep the constituencies a t regional level.*

*Wallonia has a different constituency make up for its regionals though.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #432 on: June 01, 2019, 06:29:06 am »

Very interesting articles in the press about tensions between the CD&V and it's associated pillar organisations due to the shocking performance last week. Potentially a cdH style implosion because of the various Catholic orgs no longer relaying to the party.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #433 on: June 01, 2019, 01:13:18 pm »

Very interesting articles in the press about tensions between the CD&V and it's associated pillar organisations due to the shocking performance last week. Potentially a cdH style implosion because of the various Catholic orgs no longer relaying to the party.

Which articles?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #434 on: June 01, 2019, 04:06:45 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2019, 04:50:10 pm by coloniac »

Very interesting articles in the press about tensions between the CD&V and it's associated pillar organisations due to the shocking performance last week. Potentially a cdH style implosion because of the various Catholic orgs no longer relaying to the party.



Which articles?

En Flandre, la famille chrétienne au bord de l'éclatement https://www.lecho.be/r/t/1/id/10132314
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Zinneke
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« Reply #435 on: June 04, 2019, 02:45:43 am »
« Edited: June 04, 2019, 08:46:37 am by coloniac »

Just an update on all the regional and community government formation talks (which should be quicker than the federal, although the federal talks will be taken more into account.

In Flanders the N-VA, with De Wever as formateur and essentially regional president in waiting, have received every party and already ruled out PVDA but say they are open to talks with the others. Although its somewhat more logical that they leave the door open to VB, as it allows them to threaten the other parties of attempting an alliance with VB if they don't conform to their demands, this has obviously been derided by the centre-left as evidence that the N-VA's claim they don't deal with extremes is only as good as their word.

In Wallonia, Di Rupo (PS) is the formateur with Paul Magnette and has received every party. The main headlines in Wallonia are about whether the PTB are allowed into the government majority. Hedebouw came to the Elysette with strong words saying that he hopes the PS would "respond to the electorates demands by taking a leftwards turn" and that it would be "nice to see if ECOLO are actually a left or right wing party". Thierry Bodson, the leader of the largest (socialist pillar) union, FGTB, re-itterated his desire for a PS-ECOLO-PTB coalition.

In Brussels, things have gotten a bit more complicated because of the possibility of MR replacing PS in the potential majority with ECOLO and Défi on the francophone side. And although traditionally the two majorities on both sides of the linguistic colleges are formed seperately, Open VLD's FLemish branch have instructed their Brussels branch toput on hold any coalition in a bid to blackmail ECOLO and Groen into accepting MR into the office. This is Reynders' ambition again taking center stage. His relations with VLD already soured because of the previous majority not including him and them ing him in the federal negotiations (he wanted a Commission portfolio, it went to CD&V instead). Now he's also banking on putting the foot down with his Flemish counterpart, and his close ties with Bernard Clerfayt of Défi too, so that he can fulfill his ambition of becoming Minister-President of Brussels.

In OstBelgien/German speaking community there is already a majority formed. ProDG had already taken first spot from the CSP in the elections so they were expected to reconduct a majority with Olivier Paasch. It gives them a nice mandate for the eventuality of any state reform to realise their dream of obtaining a region seperate from Wallonia. You can see a run down of their results here : https://www.rtbf.be/info/election/circonscription/detail_les-resultats-des-elections-communautaires-germanophones-2019?id=10216047

In the Francophone Community, people tend to wait for the regions to form and then act accordingly, but the big question is whether cdH's poor results can be seen as a vote of no confidence in Marie Martine-Schyns "pact of excellence" educational reform as a bid to catch up with Flanders (seen as having much higher standard of secondary education). cdH might actually end up in opposition at all levels for the first time in a while as Prévot eyes the long game and banking on a personalist campaign from opposition in 4 years time.
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« Reply #436 on: June 04, 2019, 05:03:24 am »

What do the linguistic community parliaments actually do? I always assumed they were joke chambers.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #437 on: June 04, 2019, 05:15:41 am »

What do the linguistic community parliaments actually do? I always assumed they were joke chambers.

The Flemish one is more of a committee than a parliament in itself. And at the same time it was the Flemish regional competences that were transfered to the Community parliament so its wierd...basically an excuse to have Brussels as their "capital".

Anyway I laid out the community competences (to you Tongue ) here :

What exactly do the linguistic parliaments do?

Amai. Do you have time to read the Belgian constitution? Cheesy

The simple memory technique we learnt at school was that everything not on the federal level that has to do with material goods and the allocation of resources is devolved to the regional parliaments. This is how the PS(!) demanded Belgian federalism should be shaped in order to stop the CVP from favouring Flemish industry over the declining Walloon one.
Here are the competences : https://www.belgium.be/en/about_belgium/government/regions/competence


The linguistic parliament (or communities) deals with non-material issues. Education is the main one, then healthcare, culture, science, tourism, etc. The Flemish demanded this as they saw it as the next logical step towards the creation of Flemish nationhood (same curriculum, and so on).
https://www.belgium.be/en/about_belgium/government/communities/competence


The typically Belgian compromise was having both. Brussels-Region and the German speaking community (Ostbelgien) politicians tended to lobby for regional structures only, with education and economic policy back in their respective hands.

However, a legal scholar would be able to give you more insight into the exact competences, the particularity of Flanders' government merging the two parliaments and essentially making the linguistic one a committee, etc.

tl,dr its a mess.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #438 on: June 06, 2019, 02:15:29 am »

Big development in francophone politics : cdH actually *choosing* to be in opposition..at all levels.

This gives a massive headache to PS, as they are know forced to either back a hard left coalition with ECOLO and PTB and risk alienating the Flemish Right for good or a Purple coalition with MR (remember they already have this configuration in certain key communes) that would pave the way for the same coalition at federal level + the Greens.

For cdH opposition is going to be a time of self-reflection. There's basically 3 movements in the party now : one that is the traditional movement that wants the party to remain a patrician party that serves narrow catholic pillar interests and thus should remain in government, one younger that thinks it should modernise in opposition and become a sort of Macronist movement essentially centrist but not too liberal, an another that wants to merge with the MR. I think its inevitable that the latter happens.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #439 on: June 06, 2019, 09:51:27 am »

I saw in Le Soir that Maxime Prévot is considering changing the CdH's name as part of rebuilding the party (although no decision has yet been made).

Do you have any idea what the new name could be, or which type of image Prévot wants to give the party?

At anyrate CdH probably does have to rebrand at this point, I think the CdH brand is too damaged at this point, the question would be to what and to attract which type of electorate.

How do you think Maxime Prévot compares two his two predecessors, Benoît Lutgen and Joelle Milquet?

And when you say that a merger with MR is inevitable, how long do you think it will be until that happens?

At anyrate it does seem like there isn't much room for the CdH left on the political scene (my understanding is it's basically thanks to Prévot the party did as well as they did in the first place).
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« Reply #440 on: June 06, 2019, 10:31:09 am »
« Edited: June 06, 2019, 10:42:40 am by coloniac »

I saw in Le Soir that Maxime Prévot is considering changing the CdH's name as part of rebuilding the party (although no decision has yet been made).

Do you have any idea what the new name could be, or which type of image Prévot wants to give the party?

No but expect something very...French *hint*

Quote
At anyrate CdH probably does have to rebrand at this point, I think the CdH brand is too damaged at this point, the question would be to what and to attract which type of electorate.


How do you think Maxime Prévot compares two his two predecessors, Benoît Lutgen and Joelle Milquet?

The party itself might be centred around Prévot. He's seen as the "gendre idéal" type. The good son-in-law, clean cut, well spoken. He's also definitely more to the Right and more liberal in the economic sense than Lutgen who was from the farmers interest Luxemburgish wing and especially Milquet who was definitely on the left of the party.  

Weirdly I don't think Prévot is perceived as part of the old establishment parties and glued to the PS (remains to be seen with MR) the same way Milquet and to a lesser extent Lutgen were. Thus he can still remodel the party on a personalist line of "vote for me the squeeky clean guy", a sort of Belgian Macron but with obviously much less slime as we are less self-congratulatory as a people, and also less power over his party, because he didn't found it.

So the type of electorate a new cdH could attract in Wallonia are the people who realise tough decisions need to be made both in terms of economy, immigration and justice but still want a minimum of dignity for them to be done in. Prévot provides a pretty good profile for that. I really don't think there's a big constituency for that though, especially as MR must by now have realised putting firebands in communication roles like Georges-Louis Bouchez did not help them.

Brussels electorate is a wierd mix, mainly "establishment" people, people whose kids go to expensive catholic schools and muslim democrats. I don't think they can look beyond that as a party here.


Quote
And when you say that a merger with MR is inevitable, how long do you think it will be until that happens?

I'd give it one maybe two more elections. Including the potential for fresh federal elections. It'll probably be like what the MCC did*, so initially a cartel so that cdH can make the threshold in the constituencies they do poorly in, then a gradual party merger.  

*and don't discount the MCC vetoing a cdH entry into the MR bubble, they have personal grudges since the split too, but Deprez is getting old and he even appears to have made up with Maingain.


Quote
At anyrate it does seem like there isn't much room for the CdH left on the political scene (my understanding is it's basically thanks to Prévot the party did as well as they did in the first place).

I don't think Prévot could do much, but I don't think he is the reason they did "better than expected" (yet still disastrously bad) either.

 They still always overperform because the pollsters always underestimate family voting in Wallonia (so people who litterally dont give a sh**t about politics but vote because mum and dad vote that way, or vote for their pillar).

Nevertheless, their core electorate is dying or in depopulating regions, their pillar organisations are defecting to ECOLO, they have no clear message, just policy, they are in the EPP (despite their efforts to kick him out at the last, the whole Orban controversy did not help them),  the youth wing and the party itself are at odds because they sold themselves as "radical centrists" and that attracts Macronista types to what is fundementally still a christian democratic party.  and they have the most split party in terms of geography (the Brussels branch humiliated Lutgen by not collapsing the Brussels gov)...I could go on.

Basically Prévot strategy of turning it into a personalist machine that tries to "moralise" politics from the centre ground is the best one...but he's no Emmanuel Macron, and France doesn't have to deal with the cesspit of communitarian politics, which Prévot does not have a stance on because, as I said before, most of the francophone political class don't actually think about things like what happens in Flanders. So he will get found out eventually, or merge with MR with some going to ECOLO.

What I predict will happen in the first case is that then a series of celebrity political entrepreneurs will try their hand in cdH with a soppy unionist message as the country delves further into institutional crisis, the prime candidate being one Vincent Kompany as I don't think its a coincidence his dad is a cdH mayor. And then when that fails they will merge with MR with some going to ECOLO.


EDIT : sorry for the long post Tongue bored at work.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #441 on: June 06, 2019, 11:12:19 am »

I saw in Le Soir that Maxime Prévot is considering changing the CdH's name as part of rebuilding the party (although no decision has yet been made).

Do you have any idea what the new name could be, or which type of image Prévot wants to give the party?

No but expect something very...French *hint*

I heard that some communal branches of CdH changed their name to Mouvement Démocrate (like how in France the rump that stuck with Bayrou in the UDF after 2/3rds of the party including VGE jumped ship to join the UMP in 2002 rebranded to the Mouvement Démocrate in 2007) whille others to Challenge Humaniste +. Would either of those be possible at national level, and if so which would be more plausible? I take it Mouvement Démocrate would appeal more to the type of electorate that Prévot represents, who are also the type of electorate that to a large degree have jumped ship to MR in the last 10, 15, 20 years, while Challenge Humaniste + kind of signals that the party is digging its heels in, something that doesn't sound like would fit a Prévot type party. Any opinion on that?

Quote
And when you say that a merger with MR is inevitable, how long do you think it will be until that happens?

I'd give it one maybe two more elections. Including the potential for fresh federal elections. It'll probably be like what the MCC did*, so initially a cartel so that cdH can make the threshold in the constituencies they do poorly in, then a gradual party merger. 

*and don't discount the MCC vetoing a cdH entry into the MR bubble, they have personal grudges since the split too, but Deprez is getting old and he even appears to have made up with Maingain.

That makes sense. Do you think that would be a good thing for non-"leftwing" bourgeois parties?

I saw in Le Soir that Maxime Prévot is considering changing the CdH's name as part of rebuilding the party (although no decision has yet been made).
Quote
At anyrate CdH probably does have to rebrand at this point, I think the CdH brand is too damaged at this point, the question would be to what and to attract which type of electorate.


How do you think Maxime Prévot compares two his two predecessors, Benoît Lutgen and Joelle Milquet?

The party itself might be centred around Prévot. He's seen as the "gendre idéal" type. The good son-in-law, clean cut, well spoken. He's also definitely more to the Right and more liberal in the economic sense than Lutgen who was from the farmers interest Luxemburgish wing and especially Milquet who was definitely on the left of the party. 

Weirdly I don't think Prévot is perceived as part of the old establishment parties and glued to the PS (remains to be seen with MR) the same way Milquet and to a lesser extent Lutgen were. Thus he can still remodel the party on a personalist line of "vote for me the squeeky clean guy", a sort of Belgian Macron but with obviously much less slime as we are less self-congratulatory as a people, and also less power over his party, because he didn't found it.

So the type of electorate a new cdH could attract in Wallonia are the people who realise tough decisions need to be made both in terms of economy, immigration and justice but still want a minimum of dignity for them to be done in. Prévot provides a pretty good profile for that. I really don't think there's a big constituency for that though, especially as MR must by now have realised putting firebands in communication roles like Georges-Louis Bouchez did not help them.

Brussels electorate is a wierd mix, mainly "establishment" people, people whose kids go to expensive catholic schools and muslim democrats. I don't think they can look beyond that as a party here.

I think CdH being glued to PS and running to the left under Milquet may have saved it in Brussels (thanks to getting the muslim democrat vote), but I think it really caused a decline for the party in Wallonia. I was in enseignement libre in a catholic school there and I didn't know a single person who came from a family that still voted CdH (tbf though, I obviously didn't speak politics with everyone) (this was about 10 years ago). The more bourgeois types were from MR supporting types while poorer ones or ones from immigrant backgrounds (that includes Italians) were from PS backgrounds. The latter makes sense, but I think the former all ran to MR because CdH was trying to become a PS light, which I don't think appealed to bourgeois catholics.

The problem for CdH now is the people who still vote CdH for ancestral reasons are in rural areas that are dying off, and given I think the chunk of bourgeois catholics who defected to MR have been there a while now, it will probably be hard to get them back (but I guess it's possible if Prévot does a good job of transforming the party or if something goes wrong with MR (like a bad leader or something).

And now CdH is losing its leftwing who are defecting to Ecolo. I guess it needs to be seen if a tradeoff between the two wings is possible, and how well that works out for them. At anyrate CdH is definitely in between a rock and a hard place right now.

Obviously correct me on this stuff if I'm wrong, or if my knowledge is too anecdotal.

I saw in Le Soir that Maxime Prévot is considering changing the CdH's name as part of rebuilding the party (although no decision has yet been made).

Do you have any idea what the new name could be, or which type of image Prévot wants to give the party?
Quote
At anyrate it does seem like there isn't much room for the CdH left on the political scene (my understanding is it's basically thanks to Prévot the party did as well as they did in the first place).

I don't think Prévot could do much, but I don't think he is the reason they did "better than expected" (yet still disastrously bad) either.

 They still always overperform because the pollsters always underestimate family voting in Wallonia (so people who litterally dont give a sh**t about politics but vote because mum and dad vote that way, or vote for their pillar).

Nevertheless, their core electorate is dying or in depopulating regions, their pillar organisations are defecting to ECOLO, they have no clear message, just policy, they are in the EPP (despite their efforts to kick him out at the last, the whole Orban controversy did not help them),  the youth wing and the party itself are at odds because they sold themselves as "radical centrists" and that attracts Macronista types to what is fundementally still a christian democratic party.  and they have the most split party in terms of geography (the Brussels branch humiliated Lutgen by not collapsing the Brussels gov)...I could go on.

Basically Prévot strategy of turning it into a personalist machine that tries to "moralise" politics from the centre ground is the best one...but he's no Emmanuel Macron, and France doesn't have to deal with the cesspit of communitarian politics, which Prévot does not have a stance on because, as I said before, most of the francophone political class don't actually think about things like what happens in Flanders. So he will get found out eventually, or merge with MR with some going to ECOLO.

What I predict will happen in the first case is that then a series of celebrity political entrepreneurs will try their hand in cdH with a soppy unionist message as the country delves further into institutional crisis, the prime candidate being one Vincent Kompany as I don't think its a coincidence his dad is a cdH mayor. And then when that fails they will merge with MR with some going to ECOLO.

And why don't francophones seem to care about what happens in Flanders, whether it be the political class or the voters? It seems to me it has a very clear effect on Wallonia, even if albeit indirectly.
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« Reply #442 on: June 07, 2019, 03:13:05 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2019, 05:33:22 pm by coloniac »

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I heard that some communal branches of CdH changed their name to Mouvement Démocrate (like how in France the rump that stuck with Bayrou in the UDF after 2/3rds of the party including VGE jumped ship to join the UMP in 2002 rebranded to the Mouvement Démocrate in 2007) whille others to Challenge Humaniste +. Would either of those be possible at national level, and if so which would be more plausible? I take it Mouvement Démocrate would appeal more to the type of electorate that Prévot represents, who are also the type of electorate that to a large degree have jumped ship to MR in the last 10, 15, 20 years, while Challenge Humaniste + kind of signals that the party is digging its heels in, something that doesn't sound like would fit a Prévot type party. Any opinion on that?

I wouldn't read too much into name changes at communal level. I made a post about that time about how Walloons treat their communal politics very different to Flemings and Brusseleirs. Its much more local-focused and the big parties, although previously using their communal links to clientelise certain regions to much greater effect, have realised they are better served sometimes re-branding. There's also very strange cross-party alliances at communal level that mean you get some re-branding names.

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That makes sense. Do you think that would be a good thing for non-"leftwing" bourgeois parties?

To unite? I'm not so sure what you mean?

I don't thinks its a good thing personally because I still think a lot of people in MR value a semblance of secularism in their ranks, even though they now discretely support catholic education. cdH joining in exchange for catholic pillar defence? If I were MR and actually valued my liberal identity, no thanks. Thankfully there is Défi that is now actively promoting laïcisme, but without them it would mean no more voice for those of us who want to see a strict seperation of church and state and an end to our stupid "neutrality" stance and massive overfunding of religious ASBLs and education. I still think its important to have that voice in the democratic debate even if its a non-issue these days IMO.    

Electorally it would be insignificant. Remember MR is also a merger that was supposed to overturn PS hegemony by uniting the Right. It has electorally, in the long term, been an abject failure. cdH are better served re-attracted social christians back to their wing when ECOLO inevitably displays incompetence due to lack of personnel than allying with a broad right. But cdH are facing an existential crisis.


Quote
(...), but I think the former all ran to MR because CdH was trying to become a PS light, which I don't think appealed to bourgeois catholics.

Its this but the real cause of this is the 2000-2010s (especially late 2000s after Purple) being heavily polarised between right and left in Wallonia. The class cleavage is especially strong so as a cross-class party cdH struggles. I honestly think cdH could have become "MR-light" instead of "PS-lite" and still struggled because there just wasn't a clear centrist message to be had.


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And why don't francophones seem to care about what happens in Flanders, whether it be the political class or the voters? It seems to me it has a very clear effect on Wallonia, even if albeit indirectly.

(again this is my personal perspective)

Same reason why the region itself is stagnant : complacency, kakomomics, and in fairness a sense of helplessness. Francophones are, institutionally at least, in a position of strength relative to their population too. And because there is zero federal constituency left, and thus zero electoral debate at the federal level, voters in Wallonia themselves vote according the regional issue salience and don't actually think how their northern neighbours will vote. These past two election some in Flanders do because you have a clear, albeit small, pattern of people who vote CD&V and VLD regionally but N-VA federally or have switched to NVA because they know N-VA will veto the PS. I don't think the Walloons vote PS do it to keep the N-VA out. I think they are just not too bothered about it as much.

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« Reply #443 on: June 07, 2019, 06:00:58 pm »

https://www.rtbf.be/info/opinions/detail_la-belgique-peut-disparaitre-par-implosion?id=10240352

"Belgium may disappear by implosion"
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« Reply #444 on: June 08, 2019, 04:30:54 am »

Good, hopefully it will disappear. This country never made any sense.
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« Reply #445 on: June 10, 2019, 10:09:42 am »

Any updates on coalition-building here?
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« Reply #446 on: June 10, 2019, 10:49:33 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 01:14:29 pm by coloniac »

Any updates on coalition-building here?

Mostly regional coalition are being formed with only an eye on the Federal. THere are a lot of headaches at regional level compared to last time, mainly because of the rise of the extremes and the weakening of the christian democrat parties (who usually are good value for a majority). THere's a big debate in Flanders and internally in the N-VA as to whether they should let VB govern to expose them as rank amateurs. Francken and his wing are obviously in favour while the moderate Bracke in his retirement interview (he is leaving N-VA and politics for good) says the divergences between VB and the majority of N-VAers are too big.

The King appointed Didier Reynders and Johan Vande Lanotte as "informateurs" to investigate possible federal configuration. They submitted a report ruling out VB and PTB-PVDA. They also stressed a protracted breaking of our no government record is not feasible given the incumbent government does not have a majority, so its entirely possible we head to new elections sooner rather than later and the debate is centered on the institutional make up of the country.

The problem is that regional legislatures are fixed term parliaments and if there are new federal elections on the horizon its going to be difficult to maintain majorities until those are done. And yet at the same time to negotiate on federal you're better off mirroring regional.
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« Reply #447 on: June 11, 2019, 02:11:06 pm »

Talks between PS and PTB break down at Walloon level.
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« Reply #448 on: June 15, 2019, 03:45:35 pm »

npdata.be has some great maps about the evolution of the vote from 2014-2019 :


http://www.npdata.be/BuG/426-Uitslagen/
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« Reply #449 on: June 17, 2019, 04:59:19 am »

Talks between PS and PTB break down at Walloon level.

From what I understood, PTB is still PS's preferred coalition partner, even though talks had previously broken down, is that correct?
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