Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[MaxQue]

Sammy Mahdi (the flemish christian (?) democrat party leader) in drag queen.

I was not ready for it.

I presume that the CDV strategy to win next election will not based on the muslim vote.

I saw an RTBF article that said it's more of an indication that the Vivaldi parties that are clearly set to lose next election are trying any desperate attempt for relevancy by trying to "people-ise" their party presidents. Of course De Wever was the first to really popularise this, he made his name through a game show, but now you see Rousseau, GLB, Mahdi all turn up on random game shows/reality tv and it's a sign of the utter desperation for any publicity as the Vivaldi PR machines scramble to find some sort of unique identity from the partiocracy blob.

Re: overall attitudes to LGBT, You see with the schools being tagged and burned down because of the EVRAS law though that cultural reactionary attitudes towards LGBT people are still somewhat present and if anything making a return (a strange alliance of far right conspiracy  theorists and Islamist alter-globalists), with conspiracies spilling in from France about "LGBT ideology" and "sex education classes teaching our kids about masturbation at 8 years old". So even if Mahdi is commendable for his attitude towards trans people, he may be actually shooting himself in the foot. We have a trans minister who when named nobody blinked an eye and we had Theo Francken be called out by his own twitter fans for making a big deal about women's underwear for men, but looks like we are going to inherit the worst aspects of the UK/France twittosphere and their braindead ideas thanks to the cancer that is social media and astroturfing.

there are good reasons to oppose Evra but none to burn schools.

It depends if one is criticising the actual proposition or if one has just read what the online conspiracy theorists have said about it. There is absolute chasm between the disinfo online and the actual proposition. There is no talk whatsoever of teaching 8 year olds about masturbation or even gender identity. There is talk of teaching 11 year olds about physical contact on things like legs and arms, and also how to tackle potentially awkward questions given many at that age have maybe already been sadly exposed to pornography.

https://www.rtbf.be/article/complotistes-extreme-droite-et-adeptes-de-theories-pedocriminelles-voici-le-reseau-des-desinformateurs-sur-levras-en-belgique-11256548

Sorry but it's full wokist:
"L’objectif est de "prendre conscience que l’identité de genre peut être identique ou différente, se rapprocher, s’éloigner, correspondre, ne pas correspondre, différer, osciller, … de celle assignée à la naissance."

So? That is purely factual and untainted by Catholic or Islamic doctrine.

[Zinneke]

[Zinneke]

Les Engagés are going around the provinces announcing their heads of list for next year’s campaign already. In the same way Prussia was an army in search of a country, Les Engagés are a party in search of an ideology, only far less organized and successful. As a result they drafted in ex-boss of the Walloon Federation for Enterprises (the equivalent of the Flemish VOKA), Olivier de Wasseige, in a clear signal of a more pro-business . This was seen as treading on MR’s feet somewhat, especially in a province where the local MR branch is far more moderate than their Hennuyer leader. Also joining their ranks is Yves Coopieters - who was one of the many Public Health “talking heads” during the Covid crisis - in Brabant Wallon, again seen as a way to create a contrast with the Michel-Bouchez led MR. The two parties also seem to trade defections in Brussels, in what promises to be an interesting 3 way battle with Défi for an increasingly frustrated electorate in the Capital due to the various ECOLO-groen mishaps in both style (their leader admitted taking a taxi on no car day to go to an interview) and substance (Waste management has been an utter disaster under their most senior Minister Maron). Basically both Défi and LE are hoping that GLB continues to swerve right and they siphon voters from traditional MR-voting blocks

[Zinneke]

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/07/07/jean-marie-dedecker-overweegt-om-de-ldd-nieuw-leven-in-te-blazen/

List Dedecker (a libertarian party) might choose to to be on the lists next election again. It's something that is into consideration and would be a threat to both the flemish liberals and flemish national conservatives (VLD and N-VA) if they decide to do so as they're quite popular, esp. in West Flanders.

Update : Dedecker and N-VA decide to renew partnership and make him head of list in West Flanders. What a sell out.

[Umengus]

Judge rules (for now) that medias (VTM and HLN) can not report about "racist slur" said  in september by the Vooruit leader (drunked) Conner Rousseau.

Of course all medias speak only about that.

[Umengus]

The last ipsos poll is in !

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/de-grote-peiling-kwart-vlamingen-zou-voor-vlaams-belang-kiezen-malaise-voor-open-vld-en-groen-is-enorm~a61d66d4/

By seats:

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1707809285382516954

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/10/03/flemish-socialist-leader-to-be-questioned-about-allegations-of-r/

https://twitter.com/Belga_English/status/1708737559449203167

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1709979535179989104

[DavidB.]

Rousseau wasn't just "complaining about Roma people", he said the police should use batons against these "brown men" more often because "that's the only language they understand". He himself admitted that this is in the police report even though he said he did not use these words literally. He also told police officers they make "too much money". Incredible if he still manages to stay on until the federal election. Imagine what would happen if this were Tom Van Grieken.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/MR_officiel/status/1711366755262558382

MR have shut down the coup against Bouchez rumours but have neutered the chiwawa somewhat by bringing in the far more universally popular (just for her COVID briefings, because we are a shallow feckless people) Wilmes as the main character of the campaign.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New polling









in Brussels

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1712787355407429691

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Some polls for the mayoral elections next year

Antwerp

Current mayor: Bart De Wever (N-VA)
Coalition: N-VA, Vooruit & Open VLD





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Weet het niet = Don't know / undecided

Ghent

Current mayor: Matthias De Clercq (Voor Gent = Vooruit+Open VLD)
Coalition: Vooruit + Open VLD + Groen + CD&V





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Bruges

Current mayor: Dirk De Fauw (CD&V
Coalition: CD&V + Vooruit + Open VLD





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Voor Brugge = Vooruit.

In 10 cities we will have more poll results in the next days: Aalst, Genk, Hasselt, Kortrijk, Leuven, Mechelen, Oostende, Roeselare, Sint-Niklaas en Turnhout

Overall, trend is: losses for Open VLD & gains for PVDA & VB

[Umengus]

Liège (compared to 2018) (actual: PS-MR)

PS 24 (-6)
MR 19 (+1)
PTB 18 (+2)
Vert ardent (ecolo): 16 (+2)
Engagés: 10 (+3)
Vega 3 (-1)
PP 3 (doesn't exist anymore)
Defi 2 (-2)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trend lines for the three cities i mentioned above

Antwerp





N-VA -12%
Groen -3.6
Vooruit -1.2
VB +2.2
PVDA +2.5
CD&V -2.8
Open VLD -1.9
Undecided: +20.0
Others: -3.1

Bruges





CD&V -14.9
Vooruit -5.8
Open VLD -6.4
N-VA -5.7
Groen -2.6
VB +4.4
PVDA +3.6
Undecided: +27.2
Others: -0.7

Ghent





This is a bit complex due to the coalition to calculate, but i'll attempt it


Groen +0.4
Vooruit -6.7
Open VLD -15.1
N-VA -0.3
CD&V -4.4
VB +3.4
PVDA +4.0
Others -4.4
Undecided +23.2

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Kortrijk





VB +3.9%
Open VLD -17.9%
Vooruit -4.1%
N-VA -1.0%
Groen -0.9%
CD&V -9.5%
PVDA +4.0%
Undecided: +26.9%
Others: -1.5%

Hasselt





Vooruit/Groen -7.6%
N-VA -15.6%
VB +4.2%
CD&V -11.3%
PVDA +2.8%
Open VLD -4.2%
Undecided +30.4%
Others: +1.3%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Leuven





Vooruit -5.9%
N-VA -6.2%
Groen -7.0%
CD&V -6.8%
PVDA +2.5%
VB +2.5%
Open VLD -1.8%
Others +0.3%
Undecided +23.7%

Mechelen





VLD-Groen-M+ -25.5%
N-VA -1.6%
VB +2.9%
Vooruit -1.2%
CD&V -1.5%
PVDA +2.5%
Others: -1.0%
Undecided: +25.4%

Ostend





Vooruit +4.9%
VB +1.9%
VLD/CD&V/Groen / Trots op Oostende: -28.3%
N-VA: -7.0%
LDD: +7.0%
PVDA +3.5%
Others: -3.6%
Undecided: +21.3%

__

Five more to go

[LAKISYLVANIA]

A bunch of more middle-sized cities

Roeselare



CD&V -20.0%
VB +4.8%
N-VA -5.5%
Vooruit -3.3%
Groen -3.6%
Open VLD -4.6%
PVDA +4.0%
Others: +0.8%
Undecided: +27.3%

Sint-Niklaas



Home city of Vooruit chairman Conner Rousseau

VB +5.5%
N-VA -14.6%
Vooruit: +0.8%
Groen: -4.5%
CD&V -5.1%
PVDA +1.2%
Open VLD -4.5%
Others: -0.1%
Undecided: +21.4%

Turnhout



N-VA -10.6%
VB +8.9%
Vooruit -0.5%
TIM -4.6% (local party)
Groen -4.4%
CD&V -8.6%
Open VLD -3.7%
PVDA +1.1%
Others -1.0%
Undecided: +23.5%

Genk



CD&V -19.1%
N-VA -4.6%
VB +3.7%
Vooruit -4.7%
PVDA +1.4%
Groen -1.1%
Genk anders +0.7%
Open VLD -2.6%
Undecided: +26.2%

Aalst



VB +5.2%
N-VA -18.3%
Vooruit +4.6%
Groen -2.9%
CD&V -6.8%
Open VLD -5.4%
Stadslijst -2.9%
PVDA +1.2%
Others +0.4%
Undecided: +26.0%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

These is mostly from all Flemish cities, i'm not aware of a poll for Wallonia being released (if so, i'll also publish those)

I know some might not be interested in local politics. Neither am i, but it is a good way for getting trends early on and extrapolating them, seeing if they make sense with national trends.

While the huge number of undecideds would likely go for centrist parties and not the far-right or far-left, i believe (also due to more choice and them being more calculated, while radicals know who they would vote for long in advance). And secondly, it wasn't that for PVDA many people were already voting for it before.

But aside of that

In every city poll, PVDA makes gains. In larger urban areas even more, sometimes doubling.
In every city poll, VB makes gains, esp. in the more middle-sized cities and given we don't have polls about rural communes, one can only imagine what is going to happen there. It's pretty likely they'll get an absolute majority in some of these (they got 40% in Ninove in 2018)

I think aside of that, every other party consistently loses, except for 3 exceptions related to Vooruit, in the home city of Conner Rousseau (Sint-Niklaas), Aalst and the socialist stronghold Ostend where the incumbent liberal mayor is unpopular.

This also confirms that Vooruit is likely to make gains, however these polls were taken before the "racist controversy" surrounding Conner Rousseau, it's not certain yet how that will affect polls, but this explains why Vooruit is unwilling to get rid of him, since he's clearly and definitely causing the party to make gains again after a long-trend decline.

For N-VA and Green, these are modest losses, but in Ghent it's a good poll for Green, however the mayoral candidate for Green is extremely unpopular, so they're probably better off going for someone else there. N-VA seems to mostly lose in middle-sized cities and potentially also rural areas, however given their ceiling was used to high, they can afford to lose a lot and remain relevant.

CD&V and Open VLD are getting wiped out. CD&V is more of a rural party, so these polls being bad for them in urban areas isn't too dramatic if they can keep their strength in local and rural areas, and they've definitely started to double down on rural strategy. However given that cities such as Roeselare contain a lot of subcommunes that also are in rural areas where they also seem to lose a ton, they're bound to have a rough election cycle likely. But like N-VA, their ceiling used to be high so they can still afford to lose quite a lot and remain relevant in most locations. But for urban areas, this is likely their end.

Open VLD is just embarrassing. It isn't the party of local strength, but this is just another level. There is a reason why most VLD parties are opting to choose for a different name that doesn't reference VLD. It's because the national VLD brand is toxic and these embarrassing polls only make that case even stronger. This is basically a wipe out across the board. They currently have 37 out of 308 mayors, that's bound to decrease sharply, and only confirms the national polls in that they will lose bigly.

So we're looking at

2 winners: PVDA and VB (far left and far right)
1 probable/likely winner: Vooruit (social democracy)
2 lean/likely losers but potentially not dramatic and only limited losses: Groen & N-VA (green and conservative)
1 very likely loser: CD&V (christian democracy)
1 inevitable major loser: Open VLD (liberalism)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Liège (compared to 2018) (actual: PS-MR)

PS 24 (-6)
MR 19 (+1)
PTB 18 (+2)
Vert ardent (ecolo): 16 (+2)
Engagés: 10 (+3)
Vega 3 (-1)
PP 3 (doesn't exist anymore)
Defi 2 (-2)

> Samedi 14/10 : Liège
> Lundi 16/10 : Charleroi
> Mardi 17/10 : Namur
> Mercredi 18/10La Louvière
> Jeudi 19/10 : Mons

On these days we will see polls

Not really much change in Liège also

___



For national polling, seats by provinces

PTB seems to win the province of Liège according to the last polls (which is their stronghold in Wallonia).

[windjammer]

Is Vlams Belang + NVA have an outright majority, would a coalition happen ?

[PSOL]

I might as well post this now.

I really don’t believe PVDA/PTB has the GOTV machinery or polling strength to go further than 16-17 seats. A swelling of membership into the party to account for this has not happened to my knowledge and neither have news of its mass organizations doing particularly well. I harken back to Zinnella’s post that there could be massive inflation of junk polls by newspapers to get sales and sabotage PTB/PVDA as a whole through a concerted media psyop to waste resources on grounds that are not efficient to bear fruit. The party will gain seats and we got a year left but, like the Danish and Argentine GE polls, the polls are junk.

Further reinforcing this is a possibility of soft PTB/PVDA voters rescuing PS or whomever in grand tactical voting once pressed and the risk that there comes another populist goody package by PS or Vooruit’s apparatuses to placate voters.

By all accounts PTB/PVDA have played the cards they got better than the rest of the field and will gain seats, but not likely by 18 seats or any insane number after that.

[Zinneke]

Is Vlams Belang + NVA have an outright majority, would a coalition happen ?

They might be tempted, but they would first want to PS-Ecolo to break the unwritten light cordon sanitaire around PTB/PVDA to justify it.

Regional level coalitions will be harder to form because the locals happen just a few months after and I guarantee you the parties will want to wait before those to not get punished and lose the juicy local mandates that contribute to their cash cow.

[Zinneke]

Charleroi (lol)

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1713807315562856679

[LAKISYLVANIA]

La Louviere



Mons



Namur

[DavidB.]

Minister of Justice Vincent Van Quickenborne (Open VLD) resigned after it turned out that on August 15th 2022, Tunisia had sent Belgium an extradition request for the perpetrator of this week's terror attack in Brussels. On September 1st that year, the Ministry of Justice forwarded the request to the public prosecutor in Brussels, which... did nothing with it. Apparently, 30 similar files had been sent in that month - only this one wasn't followed up on. With dramatic consequences.

I always thought of Van Quickenborne as a bit of a joke, but the fact that he's taking the ultimate political responsibility even though he cannot interfere with the work of independent prosecutors is exemplary, and so was his extremely clear press conference, in which he also apologized to the relatives of the deceased victims. No ifs or buts, but taking responsibility - that's credible politics.

[Zinneke]

And our Foreign Minister is still in place after her department handed out visas to Iranian government extremists and she lied about it...

I also think though Van Quick had had enough after getting a battering in the media over "pissgate" and the elements of his private life coming out. In addition to Vld's horrible polling and Dedecker running with the N-VA in West Flanders, making him a prime target.