Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

For those who have been watching EU politics carefully, farmer protests are popping up all around the continent and Belgium has been no exception, resulting in the farmers’ interests taking centre stage in political discourse. This means we have seen scenes that heavily resemble that of the farmer protests in the Netherlands, with sadly many far right activists also showing up with their usual simplistic slogans, but also Big Ag (represented by the powerful Boerenbond in Flanders, that has been traditionally tied to CD&V) joining in. There were also riots in the centre of Brussels, but because these guys were farmers and not climate activists, they were given chocolates instead of assaulted.

First, a word about the timing and manner of the protests in an EU context. Not only is the EU holding elections very soon, but there’s also the small matter of a Mercosur-EU joint trade agreement that needs to be signed off and ratified. That’s where Belgium is already under scrutiny of course, because of what happened with CETA. While Magnette was the visible face of the Walloon resistance to CETA, the actual deep politics within it showed that cdH also played a role because it was, they, not the PS, who were afraid of populism. This Mercosur agreement could a new touchy subject for the PS and cdH successor party les Engagés though.

The response of the Vivaldi parties has obviously been to try to do a “grand écart” strategy (doing the splits to try to satisfy everyone, which is the nature of such a broken coalition). MR and Georges-Louis Bouchez for example, who basically have become a peak populist party that tries to see where the wind blows on the latest media story and then trying to piggy back it. In this case the MR was releasing their party program in a staged event and decided to invite some symbolic farmers, as well as wheel out Senior Minister Willy Borsus, the Minister of Agriculture boasting about how the Walloon government still opposes the Mercosur deal and MR’s credentials defending the agricultural sector. This kind of backfired though, since both a member of the main agricultural union in Wallonia and even some natural MR types started highlighting that MR’s MEPs have backed legislation promoting free trade agreements with Mercosur and harsher environmental standards.

ECOLO though are bearing the biggest brunt of animosity, given one of the key demands of virtually all the farmers unions regardless of size is for environmental regulations to be relaxed, and we saw in the Netherlands that the BBB was especially effective at using this as a way to gather right-wing populists who only care about sticking it to the Establishment. Céline Tellier bravely agreed to meet the protestors but was whistled and harassed to the extent that police intervention was required.

 On the other side of the linguistic border, to their credit, N-VA have had the most consistent stance on the issue, with De Wever coming out immediately criticising the style of the way the protests were done, saying that blocking roads and slowing the day to day of ordinary citizens was not the right thing. He also criticised the farming industry as having “rested on their laurels” for years and failed to adapt. The Flemish environmental minister Zuhal Demir is the face of the government campaign to reduce nitrogen emissions and has been very stubborn about her desire to see this through. It’s a very risky strategy for the N-VA though: frustrated farmers are already flocking to Vlaams Belang who promise to give them zero environmental regulations, protectionism and other benefits that are simply impossible without violating EU law, but then cakeism is very much a feature of most of the farmers’ lobbies rhetoric.

[wnwnwn]

I only did the poll on Chez Nous as I was surprised when I found how walloon politics seemed to avoid the 'right wing populism'/'anti inmigration right' so common on other multi-party european countries. Not that I support them.
On farmer issues, I suppose the Workers Party will try to get the leftists voters sympathetic to the farmers protests.

[Zinneke]

I only did the poll on Chez Nous as I was surprised when I found how walloon politics seemed to avoid the 'right wing populism'/'anti inmigration right' so common on other multi-party european countries. Not that I support them.
On farmer issues, I suppose the Workers Party will try to get the leftists voters sympathetic to the farmers protests.

It's known that the Francophone side of the country completely deplatforms all far right politicians (and keep in mind the Popular Party under Modrikamen was not deplatformed), so yeah, bona fide neo-fascists are simply not given exposure enough in linear mainstream media compared to in Flanders where they love to invite VB onto a show because it drives ratings up. Worth noting though that La Libre and the tabloid media in Wallonia is slowly getting more extreme in rhetoric in a bid to compete on social media.

The Workers Party do try to ride the alterglobalist wave, and unlike most of the other Francophone parties tgeir opposition to Mercosur is vehement and genuine. Whether it helps them will depend on a lot of factors. This issue will have some salience particularly in Luxembourg province and West Flanders/Limburg on the other side of the border, but other issues will pop up too.

[Zinneke]

A classic Brussels politics moment : Émir Kir was excluded from the PS after numerous controversies over his stance on the Armenian genocide and inviting Turkish extreme right MHP mayors to his local fiefdom Saint-Josse. Now he's rumoured to be doing a deal with the MR leader. It goes to show the partiocratic blob have no ideological substance behind them. Bouchez also recently recruited an ex-PTB member just because he was a "community leader". Yet Bouchez will also be the first Francophone leader to copy right-wing discourse from France about "seperatism of Muslims from the State" and other such garbage.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1759995939962372237

Seat projection in latest polls. The PS in Brussels is getting hammered.

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1760206632099680527

(Take the Flemish college with a pinch of salt because they can never poll the dutch-speakers in Brussels correctly)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New poll

[Zinneke]

Note that the Brussels poll in Laki's post is for the federal constituency hence why some Flemish and Francophone parties run joint lists (usually a Flemish Brusseleer in 3rd place)

[Zinneke]

Olivier Maingain has accused his DéFI presidency successor François De Smet’s cabinet of outright vote rigging when deciding the regional lists and has thrown the party into complete civil war, and its gaining a lot of media attention. Maingain is reportedly unhappy with the direction of “his” party under De Smet’s leadership, although its unclear if there is any ideological substance to this,  although rumors that De Smet is more keen on a right-wing alliance with the old enemy MR might be it. Maingain though just bangs on about how De Smet should listen to the local elected officials more instead of campaigning on vaster issues. The sad thing is that De Smet could have actually led a party with some interesting ideological zeal, away from outdated Francophone minority rights and more focused on reforming governance at Francophone level as a whole. But instead there are no interesting proposals, just typical baron politics.

 Anyway it’s another big boost for MR in the capital, where the topic of insecurity and public drug use is also in the headlines following 4 shootings. The only issue is that all it does for MR is run up the vote tally in the places you’d expect them to do well anyway. Their strategy of cosying up to the likes of Kir or other minority “community leaders” might actually be what pushes them over the line to first place.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

For who knows some dutch (or wants to practice it a bit), i found this article

Source: DM

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Seems like VLD will be halfed in Antwerp, Limbourg & East Flanders. Their best province seems to be West Flanders where they drop 1%, from 13% to 12% in this poll, probably due to strong (new) mayors here and the fact that this is N-VA weakest province (less people moving from VLD to N-VA). Farmers class and self-employed class probably are better retained by VLD here.

But elsewhere they're halfed. In Antwerp they get 4% which would be potentially below electoral threshold to get a seat, while in Limbourg they get 6%, potentially falling below the required total of number of votes they need to get 1 seat.

VLD their best province West Flanders would be a first. I don't think that has ever happened before, because we used to be a catholic stronghold. They've declined in recent years quite a bit, esp in federal elections and have less strong faces nowadays.

What happened is that - because it's the conservatives weakest province as well and conservatives have historically had trouble in this more rural area because probably too neocon policies - the self-employed and farmers class stick more with OVLD or VB instead of N-VA here. Less ppl swing from OVLD to N-VA whereas in other provinces ppl swing from OVLD to N-VA and from N-VA to VB.

Vooruit getting 20.2% is also surprising, their best province also being West Flanders, which also would be a first given again this was a catholic stronghold. That would be a strong overperformance here, and indeed the chairwoman of Vooruit is from West Flanders. That's a good sign for her.

Communists could get their first seat ever in West-Flanders, this being historically the weakest province to crack. Same for Groen who has a regional face though as chair and would probably be able to defend their one seat succesfully.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New poll, 100 days before election

VB:
Best poll ever? At least from the past 20 years, because i don't have a full record of polls held prior to 2003 and 2007. But def. the best poll for them since than. Chair Van Grieken is the third most popular politician of Flanders.

N-VA:
Worst poll in 10-15 years. They rarely fell below 20%, this is the second time in at least 10 yrs it happens. Chair De Wever is the most popular politician of Flanders (but he consistently tops that for basically over 10 years already).

Vooruit
A bit down compared to the controversies and with Rousseau out, but still winning quite a bit compared to last time but not as much as earlier. Would be a better election result than 2019, and more on par with 2009 and 2014 but nothing exceptional, and they risk even losing more momentum. Rousseau - despite being disliked a lot by youngsters in a recent youth poll, second to only the far right chair - is the fifth most popular politician in Flanders. Depraetere who took over is only 19th in the ranking.

CD&V

Slight recovery from the usual atrocious polls in the past years. Probably their best poll in quite a while, backed up by the other poll taken this year. Probably benefitting from some of the issues such as agriculture that are gaining momentum, and a more competent leader. They have the 5th and 8th most popular politicians of Flanders, one of them being popular in West Flanders for basically 20 years already.

PVDA:

Second best poll ever, only beaten by the other poll taken from this year by 0.1%. This is an excellent poll once again. Still need to see the result before I believe it because this is more than doubling the previous result which was already their best result ever. Chairman Hedebouw is the fourth most politician of Flanders at the moment (despite being Walloon) and Jos D'Haese (below 30 yrs) also in top 10, in particular among the youth due to his TikTok presence.

Open VLD

Bad, and their worst poll from this polling firm (which actually has a liberal bias since it consistently shows them doing a tad better than other polls). But still horrible poll. Prime minister De Croo is the second most popular politician in Belgium but this doesn't translate in a good election result (and they have no bench anymore, with rumours already indicating De Croo wants to work in Europe due to the bad polling after the election).

Green

Not a great poll as well. Their only great election really is like 1999 when they had all momentum (due to a major ecology crisis in the full campaign), and they've never really gotten a cycle where everything went perfect since than, one cycle where they fought for their survival as a party that they got over the electoral threshold could also be seen as a win and generally slow but steady growth in the 21st century. Polling really well in 2019 but screwed over by bad momentum in the final phase of the campaign. This cycle in particular being absolutely horrible for them, comparable to the horrible 1999-2004: the only other time they were in the government. Not really a party that admittably has gotten RNG on their site throughout their existence.

Transwoman Petra De Sutter though might save the party as she's basically the only Green politician that does well in the personality polls, being the 7th most popular politician of Flanders. And she's generally seen as very competent - even by other government parties, whereas the other green politicians basically messed everything up they could've messed up (and she's admittably also my favourite non-PVDA politician atm).

The co-chairs Nadja Naji and Jeremie Vaneeckhout (Brussels and West-Flanders) probably aren't that well known and aren't necessarily unpopular but overall not well known.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

For government participation, chances

CD&V: 99.9%
I cannot see a scenario where they won't be in the government. Unless they aren't needed in a centrist coalition (very unlikely) or when far right + N-VA have a majority (impossible for federal, due to no Walloon counterparts).

Vooruit: 99.9%
Almost certain, unless far-right + N-VA have a majority which is again impossible federally, and they're needed in every other coalition, including with N-VA. N-VA even wants a government with them explicitly, preferring socialists over VLD due to the GLB / BDW feud.

Open VLD: 95%
They might do so bad that they will strategically skip, but again most likely needed in every coalition unless far right + N-VA. And they'll most likely govern anyways since they campaign on good governance, taking responsability etc. They probably also still would govern even if MR would be excluded on request by N-VA (tho i doubt they can afford that if they want a majority on both parts of the country), or they'll need the Greens incl. Ecolo.

Green: 85%
Likely in the government anyways, because again there aren't that many options, and they and Ecolo always would joint-enter (not separate), and liberal-socdem-christian democrat wouldn't have enough to exclude them. Even N-VA might not afford to not include them, but its gonna be either them or MR if one is excluded.

N-VA: 50%
Coin flip at this point. They're likely needed for a stable government but they're tying these talks with flemish talks which might backfire.

VB: 1%
Can't see a scenario really, barring very unlikely things

PVDA: 0.01%
Only scenario is when CD&V/Les Engages, Groen/Ecolo & Vooruit/s.pa and them have enough and even than i doubt it.

For PM chances

MR: Wilmes would be a good candidate, but she is a candidate for Europe. GLB is seen as a dick by most. N-VA would block it, but leftist parties would prefer someone else Maybe someone else could. I'm less familiar with Walloon politicians, but i think if N-VA doesn't govern, it's going to be a flemish PM again due to lack of majority on flemish side. Lahbib also has too much baggage and gaffes that she'd not be a great pick (incl. the Crimea vacation controversy). Maybe Reynders returns from retirement/europe because he'd be more acceptable to N-VA if they need a Walloon PM in exchange for N-VA gvment participation.

PS: N-VA would block most of PS candidates, esp. Magnette. And Vivaldi 2.0 i can't see having a PS, let alone a Walloon PM due to the likely lack of majority on Flemish side.

Groen-Ecolo: Petra De Sutter is the only realistic candidate and she might have a decent chance, because probably most acceptable to N-VA and also a Flemish candidate in case of Vivaldi 2.0, generally good relations with everyone. This would also be historic since it'd be the first trans head of government worldwide? And it's not unrealistic to see it happen, as she'd have a chance to be pushed forward as a compromise candidate.

Vooruit: Connor Rousseau could maybe do it with a comeback but he's toxic, divisive and controversial atm, but it's a dark horse candidate. Frank VDB also is a possible candidate (but again also sort of divisive). Depraetere is too new for the stage. And Gennez has too much baggage too. I don't think a Vooruit PM is that realistic (Petra de Sutter or someone from VLD makes more sense).

Open VLD: De Croo 2 is the only realistic candidate, but even than with such a horrible election result probably coming in, it's not clear what would happen. Possible for Vivaldi 2.0, and maybe one of the more likely option but definitely not a given. There are other candidates on the bench but the bench definitely weakened a lot. A Lachaert comeback or some other dark horse from the right is a possibility. Ongena maybe too but he's too bland & generic i think, so this might backfire too. Rutten also is a possibility, maybe the most likely one if De Croo gives up or chooses for Europe.

CD&V: Mahdi is an option (which would be the first Belgian head of government with Arab roots. Crevits too. Esp for Vivaldi 2.0.

VB and PVDA have 0 chance for delivering a PM.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1763871722183291290

[Zinneke]

A PTB/PVDA elected official in Brussels switches to MR, to even his great surprise

https://twitter.com/MR_officiel/status/1765041001393963327

I'm sure it has nothing to do with narrow communitarian/sectetian dog whistling from GLB (all while he retweets the Islamophobie French Right Twittersphere) and generic Brussels politician careerism from Handichi.

[Zinneke]

A few minor updates :

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Agora, the other surprise minor party that won a seat, will only run at federal this time as their demand for citizen assembly type councils was partially adopted by the Brussels parliament.

The crisis in Défi has worsened to a point where Maingain has announced he will not run or participate in the campaign for the federal or regionals, only focusing on his commune in Autumn. He was expected to be a list pusher as his name recognition in Woluwe St Lambert gets them many votes (it is actually a semi-functioning commune in Brussels, which is a rarity). Given it's a kingmaker party of sorts since islts split with MR this will have an impact.

Dried Vanlangenhove, the guy who set up Schild en Vrienden, a neo-Nazi militant group, has been given a year's prison today for his hate speech actions. Pretty rare for politicians here to get prison time unless they've murdered someone (and even then...)

Bouchez's latest stunts are quite something: saying he'll leave Belgium if "things stay the same" (YOUR PARTY HAS BEEN AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL IN POWER FOR 25 YEARS), oh and welcoming not one but two criminals on his Brussels regional list.

PS meanwhile : Di Rupo doing strange tiktoks in his 70s, and Di Rupo fellow list pusher Luc Hennaert, a former magistrate, arguing that cocaine should be legalised and prisons abolished, even though he's campaigning for EU elections where none of that really matters. But then any attention is good attention.

[JimJamUK]

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Are other parties stricter on this subject?

[Zinneke]

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Are other parties stricter on this subject?

Put it this way : MR and Défi are vocally more in favour of stunning animals. But like ECOLO, their actual parliamentarians vote according to confessional lines usually. Défi are the ones who pushed the vote.

In the Flemish college, Groen for example were unanimously in favour of stunning animals before ritual slaughter.

[Zinneke]

Elon Musk was openly backing DVL on twitter and now he can brag about it to all his inmates.

[MaxQue]

A few minor updates :

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Apparently, she had been expelled from DierAnimal in 2020, they lost their seat long ago.

[Flyersfan232]

I think there a a increasing chance that Chez Nous will outperform polls

[Zinneke]

I think there a a increasing chance that Chez Nous will outperform polls

Bouchez covered the right-wing populists well up until the start of the campaign. But his recent actions have hardly been great in keeping that sort of voter : recruiting a PTB member of Moroccan origin just to tow the line to that community,lying about military service and saying that if nothing changes in Belgium he'd leave it (likely to Dubai knowing him because he just absolutely loves the kitsch glamourous lifestyle). So there's a definitely again a sense that efforts of creating a right wing populist electoral market are hindered by the fact that most political entrepreneurs seeking it are from bourgeois backgrounds with no connection to the voter pool that Chez Nous tries to go after (lumpen and 4chan posters)

A few minor updates :

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Apparently, she had been expelled from DierAnimal in 2020, they lost their seat long ago.

Yeah she left during COVID I forgot. She isn't immediately joining ECOLO for legal reasons I think because there's still some sort of dispute. She's a bit of a free spirit as you can imagine but was obviously advised if she wanted to pursue a more high profile career she should join ECOLO.

[Zinneke]

So it's official, N-VA are running lists in Wallonia, their first head of list in Brabant Wallon is a guy known for being a troll on twitter :

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1770480787147682254

Difficult to say whether they are half-arsing it to just get the money as Vlaams Belang did before in Hainaut, or if like 95% of the rest of the Belgian political class they hate Bouchez enough to just try anything to sabotage him. This is a big blow to MR given the last BW seat will likely be a close toss up between them and one of the other traditional Walloon parties.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I don't mind them splitting the vote of the right wing in Wallonia tbh.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

A few minor updates :

DierAninal, the most successful animal rights party in Belgium with its 1 seat in the Brussels Regional Chamber, has just lost that seat to Écolo : Victoria Autstraet will run on the green party's list next election (and its surprising given Ecolo BXL are pro-halal and kosher animals not being stunned before).

Apparently, she had been expelled from DierAnimal in 2020, they lost their seat long ago.

With an electoral threshold, parties like these are basically pointless that only at the end split the vote of similar-minded parties. In the Netherlands, there is room for an animal rights party but there isn't in Belgium, simple. It'll always be an extra-parliamentary party that basically is not relevant.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think there a a increasing chance that Chez Nous will outperform polls

Maybe they are present on twitter, but they're completely ignored in (traditional) Belgian media. Seems to be just wishful thinking to me.