TX-SEN: True to Form

[Devout Centrist]

Can we spell F.R.A.U.D? Yes we can!

Hey, glad to see you're back! Good job calling Alabama correctly! No one could've foreseen that 20,000 vote shift at the last minute

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BobMooreNews/status/1052019222732316673

[SCNCmod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BobMooreNews/status/1052019222732316673

That's actually probably money well spent for Beto as well... Most local congressional candidates likely know how to best turn out their voters- which also means more votes for Beto.

[Pollster]

Its flown somewhat under the radar how vulnerable the TX House is to a flip. Still a longshot, but the gerrymander is built to survive only a fairly small rise in Democratic turnout.

[The Mikado]

Its flown somewhat under the radar how vulnerable the TX House is to a flip. Still a longshot, but the gerrymander is built to survive only a fairly small rise in Democratic turnout.

Flip seems nearly impossible, but Dems could well pick up 10+ seats. (20 pickups needed to flip the state house)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

FWIW:

How Money Is Making Polling In The Texas Senate Race Less Reliable

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If this DOES happen, we should start hearing about it within a week or so when early voting in person begins, because the sign will be that an unexpectedly/unusually high # of people who didn't vote in 2014 are voting early, similar to the trend in Georgia.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Its flown somewhat under the radar how vulnerable the TX House is to a flip. Still a longshot, but the gerrymander is built to survive only a fairly small rise in Democratic turnout.

The Republicans are definitely overextended in Dallas and Houston in particular... But the problem is there are not that many really winnable districts outside of Dallas, Harris, Travis, and Bexar counties.

For example, this group is focused on flipping state legislatures, and they note that 21 State House districts would need to be flipped to take the TX House.

https://flippable.org/our-targets/states/texas/

However, they only have... 18... candidates...

What would the tipping point districts be to get enough pickups to flip the State House, and how winnable are those?

[BBD]

Jesse Ventura won the MN governor's race back in 98 without doing any polling for his campaign. The key to Jesse's victory was a large influx of usual non-voters who turned out for his sake. Apples and oranges (or rather apples and pizzas, because they're such different scenarios), I know, but I can't help but get the nagging feeling that polls just aren't doing Beto's campaign justice. I don't have much of a solid footing to back me up on this, but the key really is, I think, usual non-voters (or voters that only vote in Presidential elections) turning out in numbers, fueled by Beto's downright sacrilegious, somewhat mold-breaking tactics (some in terms of sheer size and force), that can't be captured by polling alone.

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/16/beto-o-rourke-campaign-donations/

This is a great article that everyone should read detailing some important, interesting points.

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[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Pretty sure someone said before that if he used it to GOTV and get doors knocked he could have this. Looks like ORourke knows it too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's definitely possible that Beto will outperform polling significantly through historic GOTV efforts. It's just that he's trailing by too much for this to make a difference.

It would certainly be great to see the map if he keeps the race within 3 or 4 points, though.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Eh, the model has missed twice since I've used it. Alabama senate race and the VA presidential race. Made the early VA call for Trump.

It went 49:1, last election. Got PA, WI, MI and MN correct.

I've since modified it slightly. 2/x makes it more robust, margin of 4 percent at half in is callable.

I know it seems 'too simple', but it doesn't take long to calculate and was already 90+ percent accurate.  The only ones it missed are all very close elections with rather large late swings.

[Virginiá]

I'm just going to have to see it to believe it. This race seems to be stagnant if not even moving slightly to Cruz, although it's not entirely clear-cut if you look at Quinnipiac, who has done the most polls over the most time. Typical southern state has an unmovable white electorate. It also seems telling that Beto has calcified around Clinton's losing margin, more or less. Democrats made real progress in 2016, but it's not enough and evidently there isn't much more progress to be made for the time being. I'm not convinced that even a monster GOTV effort can overcome this kind of deficit either. Those kinds of operations can erase maybe a 3-4 deficit, maybe more if the electorate is naturally more swingy, but this is Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm just going to have to see it to believe it. This race seems to be stagnant if not even moving slightly to Cruz, although it's not entirely clear-cut if you look at Quinnipiac, who has done the most polls over the most time. Typical southern state has an unmovable white electorate. It also seems telling that Beto has calcified around Clinton's losing margin, more or less. Democrats made real progress in 2016, but it's not enough and evidently there isn't much more progress to be made for the time being. I'm not convinced that even a monster GOTV effort can overcome this kind of deficit either. Those kinds of operations can erase maybe a 3-4 deficit, maybe more if the electorate is naturally more swingy, but this is Texas.

My dad and several of my friends still think Beto is going to win. Should I keep trying to bring them back to reality, or should I just wait three weeks and let the results do the talking? Because they are getting incredibly annoying about it.

[Zaybay]

I'm just going to have to see it to believe it. This race seems to be stagnant if not even moving slightly to Cruz, although it's not entirely clear-cut if you look at Quinnipiac, who has done the most polls over the most time. Typical southern state has an unmovable white electorate. It also seems telling that Beto has calcified around Clinton's losing margin, more or less. Democrats made real progress in 2016, but it's not enough and evidently there isn't much more progress to be made for the time being. I'm not convinced that even a monster GOTV effort can overcome this kind of deficit either. Those kinds of operations can erase maybe a 3-4 deficit, maybe more if the electorate is naturally more swingy, but this is Texas.

My dad and several of my friends still think Beto is going to win. Should I keep trying to bring them back to reality, or should I just wait three weeks and let the results do the talking? Because they are getting incredibly annoying about it.

I mean, you are probably the worst person to "bring someone to reality" for a race, no offense. But personally, I would let the results do the talking. Just let them keep their enthusiasm, it helps in elections.

[riceowl]

Debate happening right now, BTW.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-debate-live-stream-texas-senate-race-today-2018-10-16/

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm just going to have to see it to believe it. This race seems to be stagnant if not even moving slightly to Cruz, although it's not entirely clear-cut if you look at Quinnipiac, who has done the most polls over the most time. Typical southern state has an unmovable white electorate. It also seems telling that Beto has calcified around Clinton's losing margin, more or less. Democrats made real progress in 2016, but it's not enough and evidently there isn't much more progress to be made for the time being. I'm not convinced that even a monster GOTV effort can overcome this kind of deficit either. Those kinds of operations can erase maybe a 3-4 deficit, maybe more if the electorate is naturally more swingy, but this is Texas.

My dad and several of my friends still think Beto is going to win. Should I keep trying to bring them back to reality, or should I just wait three weeks and let the results do the talking? Because they are getting incredibly annoying about it.

I mean, you are probably the worst person to "bring someone to reality" for a race, no offense. But personally, I would let the results do the talking. Just let them keep their enthusiasm, it helps in elections.

The average opinion on Atlas about this race is starting to get more pessimistic for Beto than me, lol.

Beto has accomplished a great deal, and even polling 30%+ with whites and keeping it as close as Hillary kept it (with a much whiter electorate in a midterm, presuming that bears out) would be a tremendous accomplishment, and would mark real forward progress for Dems in TX. And Beto could well end up doing better than that, even. That is not likely enough to win the present election, but if those sorts of gains can be sustained, then TX could potentially be competitive in future Presidential elections substantially more quickly than was previously thought.

[Virginiá]

The average opinion on Atlas about this race is starting to get more pessimistic for Beto than me, lol.

Beto has accomplished a great deal, and even polling 30%+ with whites and keeping it as close as Hillary kept it (with a much whiter electorate in a midterm, presuming that bears out) would be a tremendous accomplishment, and would mark real forward progress for Dems in TX. And Beto could well end up doing better than that, even. That is not likely enough to win the present election, but if those sorts of gains can be sustained, then TX could potentially be competitive in future Presidential elections substantially more quickly than was previously thought.

I'm definitely glass half-full on this race, so I definitely agree with those points. I just can't see him winning right now. I'd feel better about it if we saw the race tighten a good bit in the last couple weeks though. Otherwise, well, you never want to be in a position where your primary argument is that a large polling error is going to deliver victory to your party. I guess it could happen but it's not something I can rely on!

[SCNCmod]

I didn't see the 1st half of the debate tonight... But in the 2nd half I thought Beto had a strong performance.

[Pyro]

This moment is making the rounds on Twitter tonight.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1052374954514223105

[2016]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

No sh**t.

[SCNCmod]

This moment is making the rounds on Twitter tonight.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1052374954514223105

That was the answer that stood out to me as well.  And with the Debt numbers & cost of the Tax cut emerging as an issue...

In general Dems would be smart to highlight a talking point similar to "we see now that Average American's are paying for the corporate tax give away that is exploding the deficit- and they will continue to as individual tax cuts sunset out and corporate tax cuts remain."

[Antonio the Sixth]

This moment is making the rounds on Twitter tonight.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1052374954514223105

He really is amazing. I can't blame people who keep donating to him.

[BBD]

Apparently these qualify as "attack ads".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvY_upr_4e4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWdkOH4HITI

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/17/beto-orourke-attack-ads-against-ted-cruz-start-air-texas/

[BBD]

Oh and here's another one of Beto's new "attack ads".

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1052620284778475520