2005/6 Predictions

[dazzleman]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

Rell is not just popular. The woman had approval ratings in the 80s!

Rell has great political skills.  She seems to know just how to hit the perfect pitch on controversial issues, and there's something for everyone.  She staunchly supported the death penalty earlier this year, and presided over the execution of Michael Ross, while signing a civil unions bill for gays that reiterated the stance that marriage is between a man and a woman.

I have to assume that if she runs, she will win.

[ian]

I like the look of all those southern Democrat governors!!!

[ian]

I'm not really sure who is term-limited or not, so I just kept CO, GA, MN, & others Repub, since I dunno about Bill Owens, Sonny Perdue, and Tim Pawlenty, etc.
I think that PA, OR, MI, and AL are all tossups, so I just stuck with the incumbent just to predict SOMETHING.  These will also be the closest races.
CA, OH, NY, and MA are coming back to us.
WI, ME, NH, IA, and IL are going to switch the next election cycle.
Everything else stays the same.

edit: I don't really know why I thought that the gov. of NH had a low approval rating.  Lynch keeps his seat.

[Ben.]

I like the look of all those southern Democrat governors!!!

It takes the leap that Blanco is still competative by 07... which she should be and that Moore or even Taylor runs in MS. 

[Frodo]

Does anyone else wish to change their predictions, or will you stand by them?

[ian]

Does anyone else wish to change their predictions, or will you stand by them?

As I said when I edited my post, I change to say that Lynch will, in fact, keep his seat.  And I might venture to say that Blagojevich will keep his, too.  Have the Repubs put up anyone who can beat him?

[MissCatholic]

I think the democrats are going to have a great night in 06. They will lose Iowa. Narrowly win Illinois and Michigan as the republican GOP is in absolute chaos.

The dems will pick up Colorado, Arkansas, Ohio, New York, Maryland, Minnesota and California.

So the map looks like (not including next weeks results)

[socaldem]

I'm not sure about all your calls, but I'd definitely include Massachusetts as one of the more solid pick-ups for Dems...

I agree that IA will likely fall to the GOP...

Though polls don't show it right now, I really think that NV will probably switch hands.  Rep. Gibbons is a terrible, terrible candidate and he's going to have trouble winning statewide against either State Sen. Dina Titus or Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson.  I think both are rather good candidates.

Georgia also bears watching, though I think Perdue has done a fairly good job solidifying his hold on power.   

Meanwhile, I think Pawlenty will ride out the storm and edge out a victory over Hatch.  He's relatively moderate--or at least is fairly good at acting that way--and will definitely out-perform Kennedy.  A lot of money's going to be spent in the state, meanwhile, on the GOP's behalf....

[nini2287]

>30% Tossup
>50% Slight
>70% Lean
>90% Solid

[Sarnstrom]

I'll be the first to predict that Mike Hatch will defeat Tim Pawlenty in 2006.

[Citizen James]

The Termanator will win reelection by a big margin so it won't even be close in CA

Any particular reason for your confidence?   His popularity rating is a lethal 33% or so, and people who originally assumed he would be a moderate are changing their minds about him.

I think he will probably squeek by in the primaries, but his reelection chances seem rather grim.  I don't think even a smear campaign of Rovian proportions would help him.

[Flying Dog]

If the dems could get a good candidate in the CA Gov race then we would have this race in the bag.