Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[136or142]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

[Jeppe]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

Debbie Lisko is probably the frontrunner after Montenegro’s sexting scandal.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Good luck to Westbrook!

[KingSweden]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

Debbie Lisko is probably the frontrunner after Montenegro’s sexting scandal.

Maybe... depends on how many early votes he rolled up.

[Gass3268]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

Debbie Lisko is probably the frontrunner after Montenegro’s sexting scandal.

Maybe... depends on how many early votes he rolled up.

I thought I read somewhere that estimates about 80% of the total vote could be the early vote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated the OP with basic information about the election. Results can be found here: http://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/5/0 . The NYT should have a page up closer to poll closing time.

Please be aware that even though polls close at 9 ET, results will be delayed for 1 hour under state law. The earliest we could see initial numbers is 10 ET.

[Cactus Jack]

A bullet-points summary of the Republican primary for those who don't know and/or have an interest, sticking to the three most prominent candidates:

• Debbie Lesko: The "sane" choice despite her loyalty to the Branch Trumpidian. An idiot, but nuanced enough to avoid trouble and not turn the GE into another PA-18.
• Steve Montenegro: Insane. Kooky-dukes, in the words of Dwayne Johnson. Arpaio's guy. Already smacked with one scandal before the election had even really started, this guy is a walking explosion in a skeleton factory.
• Bob Stump: An opportunistic "college Ayn Randian" type who changed his name to cash in on former Congressman Bob Stump. No chance in Hell, but he's noteworthy for being the only major candidate to loathe Trump.

I'm putting my money on Montenegro winning the primary, because the AZGOP has lost absolutely all control in its collective life.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm putting my money on Montenegro winning the primary, because the AZGOP has lost absolutely all control in its collective life.

It would be absolutely hilarious if this ends up happening. For reference,the Democratic Party has never been really competitive in this part of the west valley, and the closest thing to a base is the small bits of Glendale in the south. Hell, Arpaio won the seat even as he was loosing in a landslide. But, if Montenegro becomes the candidate off of his banked early vote, this will be the third federal election (AL, PA-18) where the GOP sent a dead red seat into the competitive zone do to candidate quality.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT Page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/arizona-house-special-election-primary

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.

Well that's a dumb law.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.

Well that's a dumb law.

What's the reasoning behind it, if anyone knows?

[Sestak]

C'mon Monty!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.

Well that's a dumb law.

What's the reasoning behind it, if anyone knows?

Probably something to do with not influencing anyone who is still in line when polls technically close.

[Webnicz]

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.

Well that's a dumb law.

What's the reasoning behind it, if anyone knows?

It's to encourage voters to stay in line after the polls close. If a candidate is "leading" and a voter is still in line after the polls close, the voter may feel like they don't have to vote and get out of line. And vice versa, if a candidate is leading a voter does not like they can either stay in line and be more encouraged to vote, or it could discourage them from voting swell depending on they type of mindset the person has.

Its a law that drives us election junkies insane, but its a rather good one.

[Webnicz]

Lesko leading with 23,621 (36%)

Montenegro in second with 15,884 (24%)

Loves very close behind 15,283 (23%)

[Webnicz]

For the Dems

TIPIRNENI - 20,121    /    (59%)

WESTBROOK - 14012    /    (41%)


Turnout for Dems at 31.55%

For GOP turnout around 35.52%
source

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ALL EARLY VOTE

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Hiral Tipirneni
20,121   58.9%   
Brianna Westbrook
14,012   41.1   
<1% reporting (0 of 143 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Debbie Lesko
23,621   36.0%   
Steve Montenegro
15,884   24.2   
Phil Lovas
15,283   23.3   
Bob Stump
3,665   5.6   
Clair Van Steenwyk
1,565   2.4   
Christopher Sylvester
1,274   1.9   
David Lien
1,141   1.7   
Richard Mack
824   1.3   
Mark Yates
742   1.1   
Chad Allen
707   1.1   
Brenden Dilley
633   1.0   
Stephen Dolgos
318   0.5   
<1% reporting (0 of 143 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT calls D primary:

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Hiral Tipirneni
20,121   58.9%   
Brianna Westbrook
14,012   41.1   

[Doimper]

[LimoLiberal]

The fact that Westbrook got 41% means Laura Moser and other weak #resistance candidates are extremely likely to win in D primaries. Panic time for Democrats hoping to retake the house.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm not even trolling. She got outspent 10:1 by Hiral. She has no right to be getting 41%. There are going to be some awful candidates winning in Democratic primaries.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm not even trolling. She got outspent 10:1 by Hiral. She has no right to be getting 41%. There are going to be some awful candidates winning in Democratic primaries.

Given Democrats track record of not choosing risk candidate I doubt it.

[Doimper]

[Bidenworth2020]

not a great result for dems tbh