Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results for this will be at https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/ after 7:30. Please note that only the Ohio 12 special Primary election will be covered here, which is separate from the district's regular Primary election. To discuss Ohio primaries aside from the district 12 special Primary election, go to the main Primaries thread.

Other basic info on the election is in the OP.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

District 12 Special
Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
41.7%   Danny O'Connor   3,632   
17.2%   Zach Scott   1,495   
15.5%   John Russell   1,347   
10.9%   Ed Albertson   951   
10.8%   Jackie Patton   938   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   340   
5.8% of precincts reporting (35/603)
8,703 total votes
Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
39.6%   Troy Balderson   4,915   
22.9%   Melanie Leneghan   2,840   
14.1%   Tim Kane   1,748   
12.1%   Kevin Bacon   1,508   
6.5%   Carol O'Brien   808   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   187   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   152   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   138   
1%   Pat Manley   128   
6.1% of precincts reporting (37/603)
12,424 total votes

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

[Badger]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

We Republicans dodged a bullet nominating Troy over Leneghan. Balderson will keep this Lean R, whereas it would've been at least Lean D with Leneghan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

We Republicans dodged a bullet nominating Troy over Leneghan. Balderson will keep this Lean R, whereas it would've been at least Lean D with Leneghan.

I’d say it’s tilt-R with Balderson, but right on the border between tilt-R and Lean R.  O’Connor could win and Goyal would’ve put this right in the middle of the tilt-D category with Balderson as the Republican nominee, but for now, Balderson has a small (but significant) advantage.  Turnout is gonna be through the roof in Franklin County, but obviously that won’t be enough by itself.  O’Connor needs to make big inroads in Delaware County while keeping Richland County close (losing it by 5% or less) and not getting completely blown out of the water in Licking County (that last one is the hard part imo).  Morrow County is probably gonna be Balderson’s best county by a country mile, so low turnout there would help too.  I assume Muskingum County will give Balderson a bigger boost than most Republicans, but if O’Connor can keep things to a 5-8% loss in Balderson’s home county (i.e. doing really well in Zanesville and holding some of the ancestrally Democratic WWC folks) then that obviously helps (although it’s not essential).

[Badger]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

We Republicans dodged a bullet nominating Troy over Leneghan. Balderson will keep this Lean R, whereas it would've been at least Lean D with Leneghan.

I’d say it’s tilt-R with Balderson, but right on the border between tilt-R and Lean R.  O’Connor could win and Goyal would’ve put this right in the middle of the tilt-D category with Balderson as the Republican nominee, but for now, Balderson has a small (but significant) advantage.  Turnout is gonna be through the roof in Franklin County, but obviously that won’t be enough by itself.  O’Connor needs to make big inroads in Delaware County while keeping Richland County close (losing it by 5% or less) and not getting completely blown out of the water in Licking County (that last one is the hard part imo).  Morrow County is probably gonna be Balderson’s best county by a country mile, so low turnout there would help too.  I assume Muskingum County will give Balderson a bigger boost than most Republicans, but if O’Connor can keep things to a 5-8% loss in Balderson’s home county (i.e. doing really well in Zanesville and holding some of the ancestrally Democratic WWC folks) then that obviously helps (although it’s not essential).

What an insanely gerrymandered district map, even by Ohio "standards".

Morrow County will go strongly R, sure, but it'll also have the fewest votes of any county in the district by far (with the possible exception of the SE corner of Marion County the district somehow bites into). The turnout and margins in Licking and Delaware will be the key factor, with the vote totals out of Zanesville a close second.

[Strudelcutie4427]

TX-27. I’ll take Cloud by atleast 15

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Any recent polls for TX-27 Special Election?

[KingSweden]

TX-27. I’ll take Cloud by atleast 15

Sure I’ll go with that

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-27 is a Jungle Primary, so we have this YUGE field:

Democratic Party Raul (Roy) Barrera[9]
Democratic Party Eric Holguin[10]
Democratic Party Mike Westergren[9]
Republican Party Bech Bruun[10]
Republican Party Michael Cloud[10]
Republican Party Marty Perez[11]
Libertarian Party Daniel Tinus[9]
Independent Judith Cutright[9]
Independent Chris Suprun[9]

--------------

So I'll guess: Cloud(R) 44%, Barrera(D) 18%, Holguin(D) 14%, Westergren(D) 8%, Brunn (R) 7%, Perez(R) 6%, Others 3%

[Classic Conservative]

Bruun dropped out and endorsed Cloud.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bruun dropped out and endorsed Cloud.

Okay. It appears his name will still be listed on the ballot though. Edited prediction.

[DFL]

Bruun dropped out and endorsed Cloud.

Okay. It appears his name will still be listed on the ballot though. Edited prediction.

Still see LOTS of Bruun signs heading towards the Gulf Coast, specifically around Rockport and Port A. Not sure if these people know he's out...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basic info on tomorrow's special is in the OP. Results will be here after 8 ET: https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jun30_329_state.htm?x=0&y=140&id=715

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My guess, 58-42 for GOP.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My prediction: Cloud wins by 12%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a NYT results page for this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a NYT results page for this?

Probably not.  According to the OP, the results can be followed at https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jun30_329_state.htm?x=0&y=140&id=715. 

[Bidenworth2020]

Is there a NYT results page for this?

Probably not.  According to the OP, the results can be followed at https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jun30_329_state.htm?x=0&y=140&id=715. 

here too-

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

   Raul (Roy) Barrera   DEM   88   6.72%   88   6.72%
Bech Bruun   REP   80   6.11%   80   6.11%
Michael Cloud   REP   911   69.59%   911   69.59%
Judith Cutright   IND   5   0.38%   5   0.38%
Eric Holguin   DEM   199   15.20%   199   15.20%
Marty Perez   REP   8   0.61%   8   0.61%
Christopher Suprun   IND   1   0.07%   1   0.07%
Daniel Tinus   LIB   1   0.07%   1   0.07%
Michael Westergren   DEM   16   1.22%   16   1.22%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,309      1,309   
Precincts Reported      3   of   184 Precincts      1.63%

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1013211728287432709?s=21

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is this a jungle election?

[fridgeking]

Is this a jungle election?

Yes.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1013211728287432709?s=21

Is there another R or D taking a bunch of votes there? That's a county which gave 61.6% of its vote to Farenthold in 2016

[krazen1211]

Cloud is leading early.