ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

Christ you're obnoxious.

[Zaybay]

While it is clear that Heidi is down, and not favored to win reelection,the margin is really the question here. So far, we have gotten 3 polls for the race, and only one can be said to be of actual quality, the Fox poll, at -12. This new poll that we have gotten is from a company with no track record, and no history to compare to. Not to mention the glaring problems with the poll(Trump more popular in ND than WV, Rs making up 60% of the electorate, Is making a measly 10%, Heidi having a suddenly terrible approval, and Cramer suddenly rising exponentially in approvals, Marijuana ballot completely failing when other polls have shown a close race or even the proposition winning). All of these factors have never fit with the state in other polling/election results, and yet, here they are.

As I said before, Heidi isnt favored, shes probably gonna lose, but this poll is so flawed that it shouldnt be the factor that obliterates her. If Fox comes and says "Guess what shes down by 16", then shes DOA, but this poll should be taken with a tablespoon of salt.

[Skye]

While it is clear that Heidi is down, and not favored to win reelection,the margin is really the question here. So far, we have gotten 3 polls for the race, and only one can be said to be of actual quality, the Fox poll, at -12. This new poll that we have gotten is from a company with no track record, and no history to compare to. Not to mention the glaring problems with the poll(Trump more popular in ND than WV, Rs making up 60% of the electorate, Is making a measly 10%, Heidi having a suddenly terrible approval, and Cramer suddenly rising exponentially in approvals, Marijuana ballot completely failing when other polls have shown a close race or even the proposition winning). All of these factors have never fit with the state in other polling/election results, and yet, here they are.

As I said before, Heidi isnt favored, shes probably gonna lose, but this poll is so flawed that it shouldnt be the factor that obliterates her. If Fox comes and says "Guess what shes down by 16", then shes DOA, but this poll should be taken with a tablespoon of salt.

Could be a combination of the Kavanaugh vote and the list of women controversy.

[Brittain33]

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

Christ you're obnoxious.

But remember, he's a socialist who only wants Republicans to win so Democrats will have a better 2020.

[Zaybay]

While it is clear that Heidi is down, and not favored to win reelection,the margin is really the question here. So far, we have gotten 3 polls for the race, and only one can be said to be of actual quality, the Fox poll, at -12. This new poll that we have gotten is from a company with no track record, and no history to compare to. Not to mention the glaring problems with the poll(Trump more popular in ND than WV, Rs making up 60% of the electorate, Is making a measly 10%, Heidi having a suddenly terrible approval, and Cramer suddenly rising exponentially in approvals, Marijuana ballot completely failing when other polls have shown a close race or even the proposition winning). All of these factors have never fit with the state in other polling/election results, and yet, here they are.

As I said before, Heidi isnt favored, shes probably gonna lose, but this poll is so flawed that it shouldnt be the factor that obliterates her. If Fox comes and says "Guess what shes down by 16", then shes DOA, but this poll should be taken with a tablespoon of salt.

Could be a combination of the Kavanaugh vote and the list of women controversy.

The problem with that is that in the midst of Kavanaugh, she was tied in approval. This would suggest she lost almost 20 points simply in the last week, which is rather implausible. And none of that explains Cramer's sudden increase in approval in the same poll.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this. Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this and other factors(early vote/polling). Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, it’s literally a Democratic internal poll which hasn’t even been released...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this and other factors(early vote/polling). Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Agreed, which means the poll was skewed towards Heidi.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this and other factors(early vote/polling). Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

[Former Kentuckian]

There have been questions on here about early turnout by region in North Dakota, so I decided to break down the early vote returns by each region myself. To determine what county goes into what region, I used the North Dakota state government's tourism site rather than just looking at the map and guessing. The North Dakota tourism page breaks the state into six regions: Northeast, Southeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest, and Southwest. I collapsed the regions into three for convenience (West, Central, and East). Here's the tourism page: https://www.ndtourism.com/all-cities I've also included the population for each region by counting the population of each region's counties based on the 2017 info from census.gov: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

North Dakota's population as of 2017: 755,393
Note on voting in North Dakota: North Dakota does NOT have voter registration.
Total number of ballots mailed: 78,643
Total number of ballots returned: 35,319
Total number of early in-person voters: 2
Source on voting numbers: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/ABEV.aspx?eid=303
Percentage of 2014 advance: 39% (http://www.electproject.org/early_2018)

Eastern North Dakota
Counties: Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Richland, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, Traill, Walsh
Population : 321,536
Total ballots mailed: 28,477
Total ballots returned: 13,588

Central North Dakota
Counties: Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Pierce, Ramsey, Rolette, Sheridan, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, Wells
Population : 276,719
Total ballots mailed: 32,900
Total ballots returned: 15,451
Total in-person: 2

Western North Dakota
Counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Oliver, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Williams
Population : 157,138
Total ballots mailed: 17,263
Total ballots returned: 6,269

Disclaimer: The number for the ballots sent by region when combined don't match up to what the ND SOS says have been mailed (it's off by 3 votes); likewise, the number for the ballots returned is off by 11 votes compared to what the ND SOS says. Though I was careful, I'm willing to admit this could be an error on my part. I'm not sure if I somehow messed up or the ND SOS site is off by a few votes (it's probably me). Regardless, I'm too lazy to go back through the numbers and check, and it doesn't affect giving an idea of overall turnout by region.

We now have 83,961 ballots mailed, 40,918 ballots returned, and are still at a grand total of 2 in-person voters. North Dakota had 89,024 early voters in 2014.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this and other factors(early vote/polling). Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

[Former Kentuckian]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1054721751073075201

I would say she is probably trailing by mid singles based on this and other factors(early vote/polling). Shes down, but she has a chance, how ever slim it may be.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

I'm a Heidi fan and was (and still am) rooting for her, but I've finally completed the grieving process and come to terms with her losing. I'm just focusing on turnout in the state at this point because it interests me, not because I think she has a chance.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1054805360429686784


This is what this traitor deserves for betraying the interests of her constituents. ENJOY GETTING BLANCHED!

[Pollster]

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1054805360429686784


This is what this traitor deserves for betraying the interests of her constituents. ENJOY GETTING BLANCHED!

hasnt this poor woman suffered enough? jeez

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1054805360429686784


This is what this traitor deserves for betraying the interests of her constituents. ENJOY GETTING BLANCHED!

I don't think James O'Keefe has ever swung a single vote towards anybody ever. Nobody cares what that "journalist" thinks other than guaranteed Republican voters.

[KingSweden]

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

I’d be curious if his claim that that was the actual breakdown in the last 2-3 cycles, seeing as ND has no voter registration

[Pollster]

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

I’d be curious if his claim that that was the actual breakdown in the last 2-3 cycles, seeing as ND has no voter registration

This is the guy from Pharos Research, which made a splash in 2012 (and to be fair, put out some good numbers) but has disappeared since.

[Brittain33]

"I want to believe" but isn't this literally "unskewing" a poll?

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

[RI]

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

I’d be curious if his claim that that was the actual breakdown in the last 2-3 cycles, seeing as ND has no voter registration

Hard to say. The Pharos poll from 2012 which nailed the final ND Senate margin showed a turnout of 42 R, 27 D, 31 I. I have no doubt the composition has changed a lot since then, and the environment is very different.

The major problem with his comment is that you can't simply readjust polls like he's suggesting.

[Pollster]

More from this guy:

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052393979143163905

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052621715618951168

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052622058104881152

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054463451685212160

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054643109865246720

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054643650204823553

He has also commented on a few other competitive races as well, notably MO and FL.

[Zaybay]

While I do agree with the pollster that the electorate shown in the Cramer+16 was complete garbage, the numbers shown by the pollster for Political ID are waaaaay too rosy.

I would personally say an electorate around 48% R, 20% I, and 32% D, but hey, Im no expert on ND Political Identification politics.