ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Virginiá]

Did anyone really think Blanche had a chance? I mean, look at these awful polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_boozman_vs_lincoln-1186.html

She was done by January, if not much sooner.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Heitkamp isn’t favored, but it’s very unwise to call her DOA, especially since it looks like Democrats are still very competitive in TN.

[MycroftCZ]

Heitkamp's down but this state has NO VOTER REGISTRATION and we have a poll with only 9% of people identified as Independents. That Cramer +16 poll is complete junk and if you move the numbers to 45% R, 35% D, and 20% Independent, Heitkamp's got a slim lead. 

Yes yes unskew those polls

To be fair, those are just the 2016 numbers, though a bit D friendly in my book.

I know, all the polls have her down double digits and the recent cycle has been dominated by her doxxing domestic abuse victims but if you want to believe she still has a shot (just like you believed Jealous was ahead in Maryland) go ahead

Ooof, you got me, I though a race may get closer back in June, and I was wrong, I should be ashamed.

All Im doing is pointing out that the numbers the poster used are almost exactly the 2016 numbers, giving 2% more to Rs and 2% more to Is, giving an electorate of 31% Ds, 47% Rs, and 22% Is. Not claiming anything, just laying down numbers. I personally dont like to go based off a hunch, unlike you do whenever an R is leading a race by more than 1 in a single poll.

I'm not saying that Heitkamp's gonna win and I think I'm definitely going to be more optimistic about her chances because I love her. What I am saying that we really have no idea who's gonna turn out in 2 weeks and I have a feeling that there are a lot more people that are gonna vote for Heitkamp than a lot of us think.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heidi has been project veritas'd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMP-l8eB6s

Lol, who even cares though, she was going to lose regardless.

[Zaybay]

Heidi has been project veritas'd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMP-l8eB6s

Lol, who even cares though, she was going to lose regardless.

Cool story bro.

[ON Progressive]

Heidi has been project veritas'd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMP-l8eB6s

Lol, who even cares though, she was going to lose regardless.

Like I said earlier, nobody other than guaranteed Republican voters cares about James O'Keefe.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Heitkamp more likely to win than CA-32 GOP candidate Joshua Scott?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is Heitkamp more likely to win than CA-32 GOP candidate Joshua Scott?

Yes

[Senator Incitatus]

Heidi has been project veritas'd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMP-l8eB6s

Lol, who even cares though, she was going to lose regardless.

They did this with Bredesen staffers too and I have the same reaction – where are politicians finding these dumbass staffers to hire?

[OBD]

I've kind of accepted that Heitkamp is going down.

[Zaybay]

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html
DeSantis-48
Gillum-45
R+3
Trump Net Approval: +9
(done by Stratigic Research Associates)


This is the pollster that has given most of the info we have so far on the ND senate race......

[Former Kentuckian]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

[Calthrina950]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

[IceSpear]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

Actually she lost by 12, which believe it or not was viewed as a fairly good result for her at the time, since most people expected her to get Blanched after Dems got BTFO in 2014.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

[Pandaguineapig]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

I think internal polling is bad enough for Democrats that they've mostly given up on this race, leaving Heitkamp with lesser surrogates such as Landrieu and Hagel

[Virginiá]

To the extent that they matter at all, the only surrogates who really matter are people are like Obama, and only because he recently-ish left office and he is still fresh in people's memories. Other members of the party who are national stars may be catnip for activists and other people like that but are hardly going to change anything.

But Mary Landrieu? Does anyone in North Dakota even know who she is?

[Calthrina950]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

Actually she lost by 12, which believe it or not was viewed as a fairly good result for her at the time, since most people expected her to get Blanched after Dems got BTFO in 2014.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

My mistake. That is still a pretty bad result. And I think Heitkamp will lose by double digits.

[Pandaguineapig]

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html
DeSantis-48
Gillum-45
R+3
Trump Net Approval: +9
(done by Stratigic Research Associates)


This is the pollster that has given most of the info we have so far on the ND senate race......

Unskew!!!unskew!!!

[Virginiá]

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html
DeSantis-48
Gillum-45
R+3
Trump Net Approval: +9
(done by Stratigic Research Associates)


This is the pollster that has given most of the info we have so far on the ND senate race......

Unskew!!!unskew!!!

If anything, this poll balances out CNN's +12 poll for Gillum. That is the point of throwing them in the average. An average which, btw, DeSantis is still comfortably behind in.

[Former Kentuckian]

Early vote is up to 51,904 now. 89,024 voted early in 2014, and 255,128 had voted by the end of election day in 2014. Certain counties are now opening up for in-person voting (in addition to the ongoing vote by mail), so that's provided a little bump this week on top of the already high early voting we've seen from the state so far.

[Wisconsin+17]

Makes sense. Older white lady from deep red state who also lost by more than 10 percent.

[MT Treasurer]

Early vote is up to 51,904 now. 89,024 voted early in 2014, and 255,128 had voted by the end of election day in 2014. Certain counties are now opening up for in-person voting (in addition to the ongoing vote by mail), so that's provided a little bump this week on top of the already high early voting we've seen from the state so far.

Interesting. I don’t think ND had any competitive statewide races in 2014, although Cramer underperformed that year (only winning 55-38 in a very good year for Republicans). I’d say higher turnout in a state like ND probably favors Republicans, but it’s just a guess.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To the extent that they matter at all, the only surrogates who really matter are people are like Obama, and only because he recently-ish left office and he is still fresh in people's memories. Other members of the party who are national stars may be catnip for activists and other people like that but are hardly going to change anything.

But Mary Landrieu? Does anyone in North Dakota even know who she is?

There's probably someone on Atlas with a ND avatar.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1055631732320411648

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1055631732320411648

She can raise enough campaign dough to surpass Jeff Bezos' net worth, but that doesn't translate into votes.