ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[TML]

Remember that 538 gives ND the highest voter power index (likelihood of individual voters swinging the race) among all Senate elections this year, so on that basis, it is still a worthwhile investment for the Democrats despite their recent atrocious polling numbers here.

[MT Treasurer]

Heitkamp doing retail politics to save her seat:

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/10/28/senator-heitkamp-drums-up-support-for-campaign-through-door-knocking/

[IceSpear]

Heitkamp doing retail politics to save her seat:

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/10/28/senator-heitkamp-drums-up-support-for-campaign-through-door-knocking/

The most surprising thing about that video is that there's a black person in North Dakota. Combine that with heavy hitters like Tom Udall going to campaign for Heitkamp and the retail politics, and I think this race needs a...

RATINGS CHANGE: Safe R -> Lean D

[Adam Griffin]

ND is of course cheap to campaign in, small and elastic. Biden generally hasn't been like Hillary pre-2016 in hitting the trail for just anybody in the pursuit of collecting endorsements: seemingly, just the candidates who have great shots at winning their respective races. I know at least at some point earlier in the year, he hadn't campaigned for a candidate who lost. Anyway, I doubt Biden has any statistically significant net disapproval in ND and even if he did, his positive effect on mobilizing voters would likely outweigh any negatives. This is exactly the kind of state where you'd expect a huge and near immediate rebound for elected officials upon leaving office.

[Zaybay]

ND is of course cheap to campaign in, small and elastic. Biden generally hasn't been like Hillary pre-2016 in hitting the trail for just anybody in the pursuit of collecting endorsements: seemingly, just the candidates who have great shots at winning their respective races. I know at least at some point earlier in the year, he hadn't campaigned for a candidate who lost. Anyway, I doubt Biden has any statistically significant net disapproval in ND and even if he did, his positive effect on mobilizing voters would likely outweigh any negatives. This is exactly the kind of state where you'd expect a huge and near immediate rebound for elected officials upon leaving office.

DING DING DING! Someone finally got it.

This is the most likely reasoning for why Biden is doing this. He has relatively high approvals around the country and ND is, well, ND, small and elastic. He has chosen only candidates he think will win this entire year, why would he campaign for a sure loser when MO and IN are vulnerable? Because she isnt a sure loser. Something is going on.

[Former Kentuckian]

McDonald is behind in updating the ND numbers to Elect Project, but the early voting is now up to 74% of 2014's early vote (65,491 early votes in so far this year). Early in-person voting is opening in several big counties the next couple of days: Cass County (a quarter of the state's population) and Ward County (fourth largest county by population) today and Grand Forks County (third most populous county) tomorrow. Vote by mail is still ongoing, of course, and early in-person voting continues in Burleigh County and Morton County (the Bismarck-Mandan metro area) and Stutsman County (Jamestown, the ninth largest city).

[Pandaguineapig]

It appears that Trump and the other major surrogates are focusing their stops elsewhere in the lead up to the election, Heitkamp is done but at least she got a bunch of gullible out of state leftists to throw away their money

[wbrocks67]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

[Zaybay]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

Dems dont seem to think so. I mean, they sent Joe Biden to campaign for her in the final days.

[Pandaguineapig]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

Dems dont seem to think so. I mean, they sent Joe Biden to campaign for her in the final days.

He made one stop at a bus tour kickoff which could very well be him repaying a favor for a vote or him securing endorsements (Clinton also campaigned for several doomed democrats for the same reason). What is noticeable is that neither Trump or Pence are planning to make any stops in the state despite being extremely popular there.

[Zaybay]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

Dems dont seem to think so. I mean, they sent Joe Biden to campaign for her in the final days.

He made one stop at a bus tour kickoff which could very well be him repaying a favor for a vote or him securing endorsements (Clinton also campaigned for several doomed democrats for the same reason). What is noticeable is that neither Trump or Pence are planning to make any stops in the state despite being extremely popular there.

He is making 20 stops in ND for a tour with Heidi, I already clarified this. And I have a suspicion that when you say "Doomed Democrats" you refer to the senate races of WI, PA, MO, NC, among others.

Anyway, the fact that a prized Democrat who has high approvals and has helped pull out races for other candidates is going to ND, and not to AZ, NV, IN, or MO should be a sign, especially considering, if he is doing this for endorsement votes, the other states will actually have the possibility of having D senators, much more useful than a senator who lost in ND.

[psychprofessor]

Kenneth P. Vogel
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HEIDI HEITKAMP's brother @JoelKFGO tells @HallieJackson just now that his sister's reelection race "is way closer than it's been portrayed by national media," & takes a shot at Kornacki: "I'm a @SteveKornacki fan, don't get me wrong, but he's not making my trivial pursuit team."

[IceSpear]

Well, I thought Heitkamp was doomed, but Joe Biden and Heidi Heitkamp's brother told me she wasn't, so I guess that's that!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The ND polls are heavily understating support for Heitkamp.
The SD polls are heavily understating support for Noem.

At least 1 of the above 2 statements has to be true, not sure if anyone can tell with certainty which is true, and it is also possible that both are true.

[2016]

When the brother is saying that you know Heitkamp is doomed.

Her brother Joel is just blowing up smoke here.

[Yellowhammer]

The ND polls are heavily understating support for Heitkamp.
The SD polls are heavily understating support for Noem.

At least 1 of the above 2 statements has to be true, not sure if anyone can tell with certainty which is true, and it is also possible that both are true.

No, not necessarily. Gubernatorial and Senatorial races sometimes follow completely different dynamics, and these are two separate states. The people of SD are voting for who they want to run their state, and the people of ND are voting for who they want to represent them at the federal level in the senate. Senate races have recently been lining up more and more with the state fundamentals each cycle.

[Pandaguineapig]

When the brother is saying that you know Heitkamp is doomed.

Her brother Joel is just blowing up smoke here.

Even he implies that she is still behind lol

[here2view]

Well, I thought Heitkamp was doomed, but Joe Biden and Heidi Heitkamp's brother told me she wasn't, so I guess that's that!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

Dems dont seem to think so. I mean, they sent Joe Biden to campaign for her in the final days.

He made one stop at a bus tour kickoff which could very well be him repaying a favor for a vote or him securing endorsements (Clinton also campaigned for several doomed democrats for the same reason). What is noticeable is that neither Trump or Pence are planning to make any stops in the state despite being extremely popular there.

He is making 20 stops in ND for a tour with Heidi, I already clarified this. And I have a suspicion that when you say "Doomed Democrats" you refer to the senate races of WI, PA, MO, NC, among others.

Anyway, the fact that a prized Democrat who has high approvals and has helped pull out races for other candidates is going to ND, and not to AZ, NV, IN, or MO should be a sign, especially considering, if he is doing this for endorsement votes, the other states will actually have the possibility of having D senators, much more useful than a senator who lost in ND.

Heitkampmentum is



She is going to get on that old bus, stop and talk to the farmer guy who is selling apples by the side of the road, and then the farmer guy is going to vote for her so that she will win. Classic retail politics, she can still win because she is an incumbent in a small state where the people know her.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/1057390950035718144

[Associate Justice PiT]

The ND polls are heavily understating support for Heitkamp.
The SD polls are heavily understating support for Noem.

At least 1 of the above 2 statements has to be true, not sure if anyone can tell with certainty which is true, and it is also possible that both are true.

No, not necessarily. Gubernatorial and Senatorial races sometimes follow completely different dynamics, and these are two separate states. The people of SD are voting for who they want to run their state, and the people of ND are voting for who they want to represent them at the federal level in the senate. Senate races have recently been lining up more and more with the state fundamentals each cycle.

     I thank you for taking more time than I would have to parse that bizarre and unfounded analogy. It is very possible that the polls are right about both Heitkamp and Noem.

[IceSpear]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

[MT Treasurer]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

[Calthrina950]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

[ON Progressive]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

With how bad the Senate map is (we’re talking historically bad), it was always a super long shot for Democrats to take the Senate even in a tsunami.