ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[MT Treasurer]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

If the polls are to be trusted, Democrats are not only easily winning the House but also Senate races in Trump +>18 states, which really shouldn’t be the case if this were merely a Democratic "ripple".

[Virginiá]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

The House wouldn't flip in a "ripple." To label it as such really diminishes the structural disadvantages Democrats have in winning the chamber at all. A wave would flip the House, and on a Senate map this bad with so many seats in deeply unfavorable territory, one or two losses is to be expected even if it isn't guaranteed due to the fundamentals.

Simply put, basing so much of this on the Senate is not a good way to define a wave.

[MT Treasurer]

Simply put, basing so much of this on the Senate is not a good way to define a wave.

Especially given how absurdly R-friendly the Senate map is. We wouldn’t even be talking about MO and IN right now in a Democratic "ripple" year.

[Calthrina950]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

If the polls are to be trusted, Democrats are not only easily winning the House but also Senate races in Trump +>18 states, which really shouldn’t be the case if this were merely a Democratic "ripple".

But they are only barely winning those races. Indiana and Missouri are still tossups, and it is by no means guaranteed that Democrats will hold them next week. West Virginia, of course, is an exception to this, but I attribute it to Manchin's long-time incumbency status and the weakness of his opponent's campaign. I would consider 2018 to be a true wave if it were 1994 in reverse, a year in which not a single Republican incumbent (to my knowledge) lost and in which they made major gains in both Houses of Congress.

Instead, it is shaping up to be a repeat of 2006, without the element of winning in the Senate and with less impressive performances by Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Keep in mind that Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Wyoming, all states where Democratic governors won by huge landslides 12 years ago, are poised to reelect Republican governors, and that Kansas, where a Democrat also won in a landslide that year, might still be held by Republicans.

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

With how bad the Senate map is (we’re talking historically bad), it was always a super long shot for Democrats to take the Senate even in a tsunami.

I agree that the Senate map is very bad for Democrats. But a true national wave would overcome such a deficiency.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

2018 is not a blue wave because dems aren't winning in Wyoming

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

2018 is not a blue wave because dems aren't winning in Wyoming

[Calthrina950]

2018 is not a blue wave because dems aren't winning in Wyoming

That was not the point that I was trying to argue. I was trying to draw a comparison between this election and 2006, to show that Democratic performances will not be as impressive on the gubernatorial level.

[MT Treasurer]

http://www.minotdailynews.com/opinion/community-columnists/2017/07/too-much-confidence-in-heitkamp-is-an-opportunity-for-republicans/

[RI]

The Dem's closing message: https://demnpl.com/by-voting-in-north-dakota-you-could-forfeit-your-hunting-licenses/

I thought only Republicans tried to suppress the vote?

[ON Progressive]

The Dem's closing message: https://demnpl.com/by-voting-in-north-dakota-you-could-forfeit-your-hunting-licenses/

I thought only Republicans tried to suppress the vote?

Yes, because a website is totally the same thing as Republican state governments implementing voter ID laws designed to make it as hard as possible for minorities to vote.

[mcmikk]

The Dem's closing message: https://demnpl.com/by-voting-in-north-dakota-you-could-forfeit-your-hunting-licenses/

I thought only Republicans tried to suppress the vote?

Yes, because a website is totally the same thing as Republican state governments implementing voter ID laws designed to make it as hard as possible for minorities to vote.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Are you suggesting that minorities can't drive? That's pretty racist.

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/APCentralRegion/status/1058148297335025665

One of the most disgusting things to happen in the courts this year just occurred

[SCNCmod]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Are you suggesting that minorities can't drive? That's pretty racist.

The ND Voter Suppression Debacle has nothing to do with being able to drive.  Many Native Americans in ND do not have street addresses b/c they live on reservations and have always used PO Boxes on their IDs/ Driver Licenses. So the law they R's put into effect recently (to damped the Native American vote that elected Heitkamp in 2012... seeing as she won by a few thousand votes) ... requires an ID with a Street Address... even though most of those on reservations do not have a street address.

Then, Even some Native Americans who went through the 911 system to find out their physical denoted street address and get an ID with this address.... and send in an Absentee ballot.... had those ballots send back because their "new address" does not match the states list of address.

Also- The Republican Secr of State behind the change- will not even give a definitive regarding what will be accepted on election day to prove address (ie will a tribal issued document of address, etc )

So, not sure what being able to drive has to do with anything related?

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/APCentralRegion/status/1058148297335025665

One of the most disgusting things to happen in the courts this year just occurred

The Kansas Voter Suppression Debacle is equal... or a close 2nd. (esp since Polls show current republican Secr of State (who controls voting related issues) Chris Kobach in a virtual dead heat for Kansas Governor).

[Former Kentuckian]

Cory Booker has joined Heitkamp's statewide tour for at least one stop.

[Woody]

Cory Booker has joined Heitkamp's statewide tour for at least one stop.

Is she deliberately trying to lose now?

[MT Treasurer]

[Woody]

It's over, Heitkamp is already gone. Nothing is going to save her tomorrow.

[MT Treasurer]

When was the last time Republicans held every statewide AND federal office in the Dakotas?

[cinyc]

Here's how Heitkamp got blanched, in glorious Atlas colors. The results were slapped together as of last night and may be a bit rough - I still need to proof the precinct matching.



An interactive version of this map in non-Atlas colors (sad!) is here:
Mobile: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2018
Desktop: https://www.thecinyc.com/2018-nd-senate-ge

Let me know if you see any obvious errors.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but this is the first time that Republicans won the entirety of the North Dakota delegation since the 1956 elections.

If you want to go with non R-NPL candidates only, 1920.

[IceSpear]

It's crazy that she still did better in Cass County than she did in 2012 even while getting semi-Blanched. These national trends are even hitting the small urban areas like Fargo.

Same for Montana, where Tester basically owes his life to the "urban" areas of the state.

[One Term Floridian]

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

WTF from the future but didn't even warn us about the coronavirus. D*ck!