ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[libertpaulian]

Surprise surprise, partisan SCOTUS gonna partisan.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1049821777650769920

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1049754018032041986

Pack the court, create new states. Perhaps in North Dakota, each Reservation can secede and form its own state in a few years, and then Heitkamp can carpetbag there to get elected.

Oh yeah.. that partisan 6-2 (out of SCOTUS vote. lol

I'm pretty sure Sotomayor voted to take up the case.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Surprise surprise, partisan SCOTUS gonna partisan.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1049821777650769920

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1049754018032041986

Pack the court, create new states. Perhaps in North Dakota, each Reservation can secede and form its own state in a few years, and then Heitkamp can carpetbag there to get elected.

Oh yeah.. that partisan 6-2 (out of SCOTUS vote. lol

I'm pretty sure Sotomayor voted to take up the case.

I Googled "North Dakota Voter ID law" and this was the first thing that came up:

http://www.inforum.com/news/government-and-politics/4511372-supreme-court-rules-6-2-favor-north-dakotas-voter-id-law

[BudgieForce]

I'm just going by what "legal experts" on twitter tell me.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, at least this particular SC decision didn't involve the new justice, and wasn't entirely split on partisan lines...

Oh yeah.. that partisan 6-2 (out of SCOTUS vote. lol

It is pretty unusual to have any written opinions for a stay application/injunction, much less one joined by more than 1 Justice. The fact that there were 2 indicates that this was pretty unusual, and a departure from the norm.

[Sestak]

I legit want to know what people’s justification is for this.

[Virginiá]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

[ON Progressive]

As if Heidi weren't in enough trouble already, this makes it even worse. North Dakota can now safely be called an autocracy instead of a democracy for denying tens of thousands of its own people the right to vote.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here?

Because the Republican Party wants to pick up ND-SEN.

[IceSpear]

Surprise surprise, partisan SCOTUS gonna partisan.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1049821777650769920

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1049754018032041986

Pack the court, create new states. Perhaps in North Dakota, each Reservation can secede and form its own state in a few years, and then Heitkamp can carpetbag there to get elected.

This will only matter at the margins, but the last thing Heidi needs right now is any more bad news.

[Xing]

Republicans cheat to win, example number 562.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't you only need 4 justices to take up a case? If so, it would mean one of the liberal ones refused to.

[cinyc]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

The 8th Circuit lifted the District Circuit's stay in September - before any ballots were mailed out. They ruled the Purcell didn't apply at that time. The Supreme Court just upheld what was ruled on in September.

http://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/18/09/181725P.pdf

As to the effect of this, even the District Court acknowledged that about 13x more non-Native Americans didn't have the proper ID at the time of their decision than Native Americans. Given Native Americans' already anemic voter participation rate, requiring a voter ID might actually preclude more Republicans from voting than Democrats.

[Zaybay]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

The 8th Circuit lifted the District Circuit's stay in September - before any ballots were mailed out. They ruled the Purcell didn't apply at that time. The Supreme Court just upheld what was ruled on in September.

http://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/18/09/181725P.pdf

As to the effect of this, even the District Court acknowledged that about 13x more non-Native Americans didn't have the proper ID at the time of their decision than Native Americans. Given Native Americans' already anemic voter participation rate, requiring a voter ID might actually preclude more Republicans from voting than Democrats.

Really hope you are right about this...

[ON Progressive]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

The 8th Circuit lifted the District Circuit's stay in September - before any ballots were mailed out. They ruled the Purcell didn't apply at that time. The Supreme Court just upheld what was ruled on in September.

http://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/18/09/181725P.pdf

As to the effect of this, even the District Court acknowledged that about 13x more non-Native Americans didn't have the proper ID at the time of their decision than Native Americans. Given Native Americans' already anemic voter participation rate, requiring a voter ID might actually preclude more Republicans from voting than Democrats.

Would be amazing if this ended up being a self-own.

[Zaybay]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

The 8th Circuit lifted the District Circuit's stay in September - before any ballots were mailed out. They ruled the Purcell didn't apply at that time. The Supreme Court just upheld what was ruled on in September.

http://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/18/09/181725P.pdf

As to the effect of this, even the District Court acknowledged that about 13x more non-Native Americans didn't have the proper ID at the time of their decision than Native Americans. Given Native Americans' already anemic voter participation rate, requiring a voter ID might actually preclude more Republicans from voting than Democrats.

Would be amazing if this ended up being a self-own.

"Heidi wins by 2000 votes thanks to voter ID law"

"Voter ID laws are a threat to Democracy!"-Newt

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

[KingSweden]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

Good analysis

[Zaybay]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

[henster]

I remember the voter ID laws in AL were supposed to doom Doug Jones, we have strict voter ID in VA and Dems have done fine. I think the effects are pretty exaggerated if someone is really motivated to vote they'll find a way to do it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

Is it possible that pollsters are reaching these people and failing to account for their low propensity to vote?

I know, I know, grasping at straws.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

Is it possible that pollsters are reaching these people and failing to account for their low propensity to vote?

I know, I know, grasping at straws.

I doubt it. Almost all wouldn't even have a 701 area code.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Keep in mind that northwestern North Dakota is also a coal mining region, and unlike the oil workers most of those workers are established state residents.

Of course these areas were always Republican, never a union Democratic tradition like in Appalachia. Also the coal mining industry there hasn't been hit anywhere near as hard, or really at all. (That's because it's lignite coal, which is a far more low quality coal than the bitluminous Appalachia is famous for, but still in relatively high use because it can be cheaply mined and transported unlike those deep earth mines. In fact, there are some power plants right next to the mines.)

[Zaybay]

Interesting:

https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/

Brand new approvals for all 100 senators, and Heidi is above Trump in net approval.

[ON Progressive]

Interesting:

https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/

Brand new approvals for all 100 senators, and Heidi is above Trump in net approval.

I'm absolutely sure Trump's approval is -5 in ND when Trump's approval is -7 in PA. /s