ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Calthrina950]

Are we seriously freaking out over GOP internals?

Every North Dakota poll in the past few months has shown Heitkamp trailing Cramer statewide. Unless you are prepared to say that there will be another repeat of 2012, it's hard to see how the race could still be within the margin of error.

[Beet]

My opinion of this race has been the same since last year, and my analysis the same since July:

If the 2017 elections (and 2018 special elections) are any indication, any wave in 2018 is only conditional: Democrats will 'wave' in urban and metropolitan areas, but not in rural areas. Since North Dakota is not a metropolitan state, it may not be affected by any wave and may even trend more R. This is a far more Republican state than even the one Mitt Romney carried in 2012, when Heitkamp was elected. Obama got 38% of the vote then, but Hillary only got 27% of the vote. 1 in 4 of the Democratic voters who helped Heitkamp to her original election simply don't exist any more.

[Calthrina950]

Are we seriously freaking out over GOP internals?

Every North Dakota poll in the past few months has shown Heitkamp trailing Cramer statewide. Unless you are prepared to say that there will be another repeat of 2012, it's hard to see how the race could still be within the margin of error.

Ok, Mr. Dems in Disarray

I'm not saying that the Democrats are in "complete" disarray. Manchin, Tester, and Donnelly have clear leads in their races, while Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are leading by double digits. And Democrats are favored to take the House. What I am saying is that Democratic chances in many of the tossup states that will decide Senate control have decreased, and that the polls in those states have tightened. Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota are moving out of reach for them; the trends make that clear. And Arizona, Nevada, and Missouri are not sure wins for them either. My view on these matters is that of a realist.

[Zaybay]

You guys are seriously using GOP internals for approval numbers? Come on. Give me something thats actually concrete.

I know we dont get any ND polls really, but this is ridiculous.

[IceSpear]

You guys are seriously using GOP internals for approval numbers? Come on. Give me something thats actually concrete.

The FOX poll gave her a 48-49 favorability rating. Considering her no vote on Kavanaugh as well as the sexual assault thing, it wouldn't be surprising at all if she's underwater now.

[Zaybay]

You guys are seriously using GOP internals for approval numbers? Come on. Give me something thats actually concrete.

The FOX poll gave her a 48-49 favorability rating. Considering her no vote on Kavanaugh as well as the sexual assault thing, it wouldn't be surprising at all if she's underwater now.

Ok, thats concrete. But the approval from internals arent, which is where my beef lies.

[wbrocks67]

Again, we've only had, what, 2 Fox News polls? People act is if there has been a plethora of polling here

[Matty]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/18/politics/lexi-zhorela-heidi-heitkamp-cnntv/index.html

Woman named in heitkamp sexual assault says “damage is done”, now in police protection

[Virginiá]

Jesus Heitkamp

[Senator Incitatus]

Those around in 2017 know that I've always been bearish on Heitkamp's chances, but I always thought this would at least be close. Now, it's looking like she could actually get Kirk'd.

nah, this is unique. kirk didnt have any scandals. i think a new term is needed

Uh, Kirk said one of the most racist things any candidate said in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

[IceSpear]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Her fatal mistake was not retail politicsing hard enough.

[Beet]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Heitkamp was going to lose even before any of this. If ND wasn't a 27% Clinton state, Cramer's support for Kavanaugh and his comments about "even if it was true" and "strong women don't get raped" would have sunk him long ago.

[TML]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Heitkamp was going to lose even before any of this. If ND wasn't a 27% Clinton state, Cramer's support for Kavanaugh and his comments about "even if it was true" and "strong women don't get raped" would have sunk him long ago.

That line of thinking would also imply that Manchin would be doomed as well, as his home state gave Clinton only 26% of the vote.

No, I think the main reason Heitkamp is in trouble is that she has been running a rather lukewarm campaign (compared to someone like Richard Ojeda in WV-3, who has come out swinging and maintained that posture).

[Beet]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Heitkamp was going to lose even before any of this. If ND wasn't a 27% Clinton state, Cramer's support for Kavanaugh and his comments about "even if it was true" and "strong women don't get raped" would have sunk him long ago.

That line of thinking would also imply that Manchin would be doomed as well, as his home state gave Clinton only 26% of the vote.

No, I think the main reason Heitkamp is in trouble is that she has been running a rather lukewarm campaign (compared to someone like Richard Ojeda in WV-3, who has come out swinging and maintained that posture).

There's no indication Ojeda is going to win.

As for Manchin, let's just say I'm a lot more skeptical of his chances than most here.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

To be frank, I believe that what Heitkamp did was an honest error, and that responsibility falls upon newspapers in cases like this to catch errors like this and to make sure that this type of mistake does not go through.

[MT Treasurer]

That line of thinking would also imply that Manchin would be doomed as well, as his home state gave Clinton only 26% of the vote.

No, I think the main reason Heitkamp is in trouble is that she has been running a rather lukewarm campaign (compared to someone like Richard Ojeda in WV-3, who has come out swinging and maintained that posture).

It also implies that Doug Jones shouldn’t be Senator right now, that Bredesen should be DOA at this point, that Democrats should have lost several special elections in deep red territory they actually won, etc. The fact that Clinton (one of the least popular Democratic candidates in history who essentially insulted all Republicans/rural voters) only received 27% of the vote in 2016 is completely extraneous to this year's election since it’s not 2016 anymore and Clinton isn’t on the ballot. It will be absolutely humiliating for Heitkamp if she loses in a massive Democratic wave election, especially given how well Democrats are doing in virtually every other red state Senate race.

[SCNCmod]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

[Bidenworth2020]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

i thought she would win still, before the abuse thing

[SCNCmod]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

i thought she would win still, before the abuse thing

Granted I think she will need a political miracle to win like an unusually big silent vote(which I hope happens)...

But either way- I just don't think the abuse thing will have an effect- the underlying reasons to vote either candidate seem like they would far outweigh a mistake that was clearly unintentional and in which Heitkamp handled in an admirable way (in stark contrast to how most "typical" politicians would... took responsibility and appeared genuinely sorry for the mistake). 

[Zaybay]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

[SCNCmod]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

Can anything be gleamed from these 34k? 

[Calthrina950]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

At this point, I just don't think an upset is going to happen. The polls seem to have moved out of the margin of error, and she is down by much more than she was back in 2012. Democrats are guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, and that will be this one. They could even lose Missouri, given that McCaskill is slightly trailing Hawley.

[Zaybay]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

At this point, I just don't think an upset is going to happen. The polls seem to have moved out of the margin of error, and she is down by much more than she was back in 2012. Democrats are guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, and that will be this one. They could even lose Missouri, given that McCaskill is slightly trailing Hawley.

you say that as if we have had a plethora of polling in ND.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1053272190060294145