ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[ON Progressive]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

Can anything be gleamed from these 34k? 

FWIW, I heard turnout isn’t great in the west of the state.

[Zaybay]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

Can anything be gleamed from these 34k? 

FWIW, I heard turnout isn’t great in the west of the state.

I have no idea about the turnout in each part of the state, but if you are correct, then a likely reason may actually be the new ID requirements. Most of the new R Oil Workers have basically been cutoff from voting due to it.

[KingSweden]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

At this point, I just don't think an upset is going to happen. The polls seem to have moved out of the margin of error, and she is down by much more than she was back in 2012. Democrats are guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, and that will be this one. They could even lose Missouri, given that McCaskill is slightly trailing Hawley.

you say that as if we have had a plethora of polling in ND.

Granted this is a case where a preponderance or other factors are driving this analysis rather than polls alone

[MT Treasurer]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

Can anything be gleamed from these 34k? 

FWIW, I heard turnout isn’t great in the west of the state.

Link?

[MAINEiac4434]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

[Vega]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

That's generally how political campaigns work.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1053272190060294145

BOLD

[Brittain33]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

That's generally how political campaigns work.

I have friends who donate to a lot of campaigns who are particularly annoyed with Heitkamp emails.

[MT Treasurer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/schumer-senate-midterms-915405

[MycroftCZ]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/schumer-senate-midterms-915405

He seems generally confident about Heitkamp... wonder if their internals show her bouncing back?

[MycroftCZ]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

That's generally how political campaigns work.

I have friends who donate to a lot of campaigns who are particularly annoyed with Heitkamp emails.

There's no way they're more annoying than the Doug Jones emails.

[Zaybay]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/schumer-senate-midterms-915405

He seems generally confident about Heitkamp... wonder if their internals show her bouncing back?

I mean, most likely. The Fox poll was taken back with Kavanaugh, which didnt play well in the seat. Considering other seats have reverted back to pre-Kavanaugh levels, or better, to a small D bump, I would say that ND would be the same. Of course, this is just a theory, I would need polling to confirm.

[Skye]

I don't think any of us believe Heitkamp will lose by double digits. More polling of this race is needed.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

My assumption is she is down 5-7 points, but what do I know.

[MT Treasurer]

I like to be cautious with my ratings, which is why I have ND/TN/MS-S all as Toss-up, MI-SEN "only" Likely D, WY-GOV Lean R, WI-GOV Toss-up, etc.

[Zaybay]

I would say shes down by around 6 points right now.

[Tender Branson]

It's sad that there's no good quality poll from this state, such as CNN, SUSA or Marist.

But I guess that's because ND has an anti-robot-calling law or something ...

[Zaybay]

It's sad that there's no good quality poll from this state, such as SUSA or Marist.

But I guess that's because ND has an anti-robot-calling law or something ...

worse, they also have no actual party registration.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If the post about low turnout in the west is true, then that's good for Heitkamp. Western ND will drag her down regardless of what the outcome of the race is.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1053272190060294145

Cook Senate ratings behind the curve yet again. What is the point of having "expert" Senate ratings if they don't update until it is clear to everyone else what is happening?

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1053272190060294145

Cook Senate ratings behind the curve yet again. What is the point of having "expert" Senate ratings if they don't update until it is clear to everyone else what is happening?

They are usually very careful with their rating changes. If they behaved like Atlas, we would have rating changes every week.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

They are usually very careful with their rating changes. If they behaved like Atlas, we would have rating changes every week.

But compare to the Cook House ratings.

With the Cook House ratings, they move races and then later people say, "oh, at the time they moved it I wasn't sure why the moved it, but it turns out they were right to move it."

When has that happened with the Senate ratings?

The issue is that whereas the House ratings do provide some added value and are often a leading indicator, the Senate ratings do not (and always seem to be a lagging indicator).

[Former Kentuckian]

There have been questions on here about early turnout by region in North Dakota, so I decided to break down the early vote returns by each region myself. To determine what county goes into what region, I used the North Dakota state government's tourism site rather than just looking at the map and guessing. The North Dakota tourism page breaks the state into six regions: Northeast, Southeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest, and Southwest. I collapsed the regions into three for convenience (West, Central, and East). Here's the tourism page: https://www.ndtourism.com/all-cities I've also included the population for each region by counting the population of each region's counties based on the 2017 info from census.gov: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

North Dakota's population as of 2017: 755,393
Note on voting in North Dakota: North Dakota does NOT have voter registration.
Total number of ballots mailed: 78,643
Total number of ballots returned: 35,319
Total number of early in-person voters: 2
Source on voting numbers: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/ABEV.aspx?eid=303
Percentage of 2014 advance: 39% (http://www.electproject.org/early_2018)

Eastern North Dakota
Counties: Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Richland, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, Traill, Walsh
Population : 321,536
Total ballots mailed: 28,477
Total ballots returned: 13,588

Central North Dakota
Counties: Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Pierce, Ramsey, Rolette, Sheridan, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, Wells
Population : 276,719
Total ballots mailed: 32,900
Total ballots returned: 15,451
Total in-person: 2

Western North Dakota
Counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Oliver, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Williams
Population : 157,138
Total ballots mailed: 17,263
Total ballots returned: 6,269

Disclaimer: The number for the ballots sent by region when combined don't match up to what the ND SOS says have been mailed (it's off by 3 votes); likewise, the number for the ballots returned is off by 11 votes compared to what the ND SOS says. Though I was careful, I'm willing to admit this could be an error on my part. I'm not sure if I somehow messed up or the ND SOS site is off by a few votes (it's probably me). Regardless, I'm too lazy to go back through the numbers and check, and it doesn't affect giving an idea of overall turnout by region.

[Bidenworth2020]

There have been questions on here about early turnout by region in North Dakota, so I decided to break down the early vote returns by each region myself. To determine what county goes into what region, I used the North Dakota state government's tourism site rather than just looking at the map and guessing. The North Dakota tourism page breaks the state into six regions: Northeast, Southeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest, and Southwest. I collapsed the regions into three for convenience (West, Central, and East). Here's the tourism page: https://www.ndtourism.com/all-cities I've also included the population for each region by counting the population of each region's counties based on the 2017 info from census.gov: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

North Dakota's population as of 2017: 755,393
Note on voting in North Dakota: North Dakota does NOT have voter registration.
Total number of ballots mailed: 78,643
Total number of ballots returned: 35,319
Total number of early in-person voters: 2
Source on voting numbers: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/ABEV.aspx?eid=303
Percentage of 2014 advance: 39% (http://www.electproject.org/early_2018)

Eastern North Dakota
Counties: Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Richland, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, Traill, Walsh
Population : 321,536
Total ballots mailed: 28,477
Total ballots returned: 13,588

Central North Dakota
Counties: Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Pierce, Ramsey, Rolette, Sheridan, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, Wells
Population : 276,719
Total ballots mailed: 32,900
Total ballots returned: 15,451
Total in-person: 2

Western North Dakota
Counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Oliver, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Williams
Population : 157,138
Total ballots mailed: 17,263
Total ballots returned: 6,269

Disclaimer: The number for the ballots sent by region when combined don't match up to what the ND SOS says have been mailed (it's off by 3 votes); likewise, the number for the ballots returned is off by 11 votes compared to what the ND SOS says. Though I was careful, I'm willing to admit this could be an error on my part. I'm not sure if I somehow messed up or the ND SOS site is off by a few votes (it's probably me). Regardless, I'm too lazy to go back through the numbers and check, and it doesn't affect giving an idea of overall turnout by region.

this is probably bad news for Heitkamp. She needs gangbusters turnout in the east. On the other hand, the west is bad for Cramer.

[The Vorlon]

An incumbent down by 4 to 12% in a state where the natural bias is not in her favor..

She is at 42% in the RCP average....    Stick a fork in her.... she's done.