ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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  ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are  (Read 106574 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1000 on: October 22, 2018, 10:22:35 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1001 on: October 22, 2018, 10:23:36 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

How exactly doesn't it make sense? Due to the Ebsy Mind Model of adding 10 points to the Democrat in any poll?

Blanche Lincoln was an incumbent who went down in a national wave election against her party. That is clearly not happening here. However, not all of us can be as tedious as you, thankfully.
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henster
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« Reply #1002 on: October 22, 2018, 10:23:45 PM »

Just seems so bizarre she'd end up losing in 2018 while she won in 2012 under much less favorable circumstances. Rick Berg must have been Todd Akin level of bad.
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Very Legal & Very Cool
RFA09
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« Reply #1003 on: October 22, 2018, 10:24:54 PM »

I'm surprised that the tariff hit to farmers hasn't helped Heitkamp more. The only way those tariffs will get reversed is with a Congress that is actually willing to disagree with Trump on policy instead of being afraid of disagreeing.

Nobody votes based off things like tariffs, despite all the hype.

Shh, don't tell the 1800s.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1004 on: October 22, 2018, 10:26:43 PM »

Just seems so bizarre she'd end up losing in 2018 while she won in 2012 under much less favorable circumstances. Rick Berg must have been Todd Akin level of bad.
The partisan lean of North Dakota was quite a bit better in 2012 than it is now, unfortunately for Heitkamp.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1005 on: October 22, 2018, 10:30:43 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I wasn't here, but comments referring to Lincoln have been made, on this thread and elsewhere, concerning that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1006 on: October 22, 2018, 10:32:10 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

How exactly doesn't it make sense? Due to the Ebsy Mind Model of adding 10 points to the Democrat in any poll?

Blanche Lincoln was an incumbent who went down in a national wave election against her party. That is clearly not happening here. However, not all of us can be as tedious as you, thankfully.

Uh, so what? "Blanched" has always just meant an incumbent losing by a massive margin. Last time I checked there's no qualifier to the term that it must take place in a certain political environment. You might as well say it doesn't make sense because the election isn't taking place in Arkansas, or because the Republican's last name starts with a C rather than a B.

Speaking of tedious, will you ever stop doing your best Baghdad Bob impression whenever something shows even remotely bad news for the Democrats? It's blatantly obvious Heitkamp is going to lose, I don't know why you insist on staying in denial until election day. But you do you I guess. It sure worked out well for you when you insisted the Comey letter wouldn't matter.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1007 on: October 22, 2018, 10:36:47 PM »

There is such a thing as overcorrection.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #1008 on: October 22, 2018, 10:41:20 PM »

I'm surprised that the tariff hit to farmers hasn't helped Heitkamp more. The only way those tariffs will get reversed is with a Congress that is actually willing to disagree with Trump on policy instead of being afraid of disagreeing.

Tariffs are really a longer term thing, the longer they last the more they trickle down and it could be devastating for rural ND. Rural ND is driven by agriculture, oil puts a lot of money into the state's coffers but it's direct impact is in a much smaller area of the state.

Cramer is kind of lucky with the timing of it all, if this had happened earlier it would be a bigger issue.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1009 on: October 22, 2018, 10:51:47 PM »

There is such a thing as overcorrection.

You should tell that to Nate Silver, who continues to vastly inflate Heitkamp's chances just to overcompensate for calling the race wrong in 2012. Wink
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jfern
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« Reply #1010 on: October 22, 2018, 10:58:08 PM »

Imagine how badly Heitkamp would lose if Hillary was President.
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RI
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« Reply #1011 on: October 22, 2018, 11:04:29 PM »

Oh, and her real name isn't even Heidi. smh
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1012 on: October 22, 2018, 11:06:53 PM »

Imagine how badly Heitkamp would lose if Hillary was President.

We might've needed a new term.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1013 on: October 22, 2018, 11:14:56 PM »

Heitkamp has only been down double digits in 2 polls, the race has been rarely polled and ND polling is crap anyway. I'm not saying she'll win(though 538's fundamentals do), but I am saying that the narrative that Heitkamp is 100% DOA and will be, well, Blanched, is foolish, and there is a wide range of possible outcomes for this race.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #1014 on: October 22, 2018, 11:34:26 PM »

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy
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BRTD
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« Reply #1015 on: October 22, 2018, 11:41:22 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I was, and no one was hyping her up or thinking she had a chance.
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Boobs
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« Reply #1016 on: October 22, 2018, 11:49:46 PM »

Imagine how badly Heitkamp would lose if Hillary was President.

She would have survived pretty easily. But I think she loses in this world.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1017 on: October 22, 2018, 11:52:31 PM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I was, and no one was hyping her up or thinking she had a chance.

Thank you for witnessing BRTD. I'm sure it wasn't pretty.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1018 on: October 23, 2018, 12:08:30 AM »

Blanche won by a landslide before losing in one, that's the point of the term.

Heitkamp barely won the first time.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1019 on: October 23, 2018, 12:10:10 AM »

Heitkamp has only been down double digits in 2 polls, the race has been rarely polled and ND polling is crap anyway. I'm not saying she'll win(though 538's fundamentals do), but I am saying that the narrative that Heitkamp is 100% DOA and will be, well, Blanched, is foolish, and there is a wide range of possible outcomes for this race.

There is still a possibility that Heitkamp could win, but that possibility is very low at this point. The polls that have come out thus far are outside of the margin of error.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #1020 on: October 23, 2018, 12:11:31 AM »



I like Heidi!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1021 on: October 23, 2018, 12:14:59 AM »

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I was, and no one was hyping her up or thinking she had a chance.

So Atlas was less hackish in 2010?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1022 on: October 23, 2018, 05:28:18 AM »

Just seems so bizarre she'd end up losing in 2018 while she won in 2012 under much less favorable circumstances. Rick Berg must have been Todd Akin level of bad.
The partisan lean of North Dakota was quite a bit better in 2012 than it is now, unfortunately for Heitkamp.

They like Trump a lot more than they liked Romney.

As for Kavanaugh, maybe there's a rural perjurer preferrer factor here, but we can't know for certain.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1023 on: October 23, 2018, 06:31:31 AM »

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

Christ you're obnoxious.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #1024 on: October 23, 2018, 06:36:01 AM »

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

Christ you're obnoxious.
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