ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

If this is even an ounce true, then this move probably helps Heitkamp a ton. The R trend of the West was mostly due to out of state oil workers, and now, they may not be able to vote. Not to mention, the areas that can get driver licences are all in the East, of in largely pro-Heitkamp areas.

This may possibly be a game changer. Funny that it would come from a voter ID law.

No, not really. Western ND has always been heavily Republican. The oil boom just increased the population of some counties out there, but even then the population increase was in numerical numbers not very high. It's just that those counties had such low populations to begin with.

I mean let's compare some total votes cast. These are the two fastest growing counties in the United States:

Williams County:
2016 - 12,807
2012 - 9,808

McKenzie County:
2016 - 4,672
2012 - 3,451

Yeah, those are huge increases percentage wise! But then let's compare to:

Cass County:
2016 - 80,821
2012 - 73,855

Oh wait, numerically that's higher! Also I don't know the 2012 estimates for those, but compared to the 2010 Census McKenzie County has almost doubled in population. But it didn't come close to doubling in votes cast. That's because most of those workers probably weren't even registering or settling there to begin with and saw it as a temporary gig. They're also not the types known for high turnout or registration.

Also the population increase in Cass County from 2012 is higher than the increase in those two counties combined. Now granted yes, it's true that the Cass County increase is probably largely due to rural depopulation and population shifts within North Dakota but the population center of gravity in the state hasn't really shifted that much.

Is it possible that pollsters are reaching these people and failing to account for their low propensity to vote?

I know, I know, grasping at straws.

I doubt it. Almost all wouldn't even have a 701 area code.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Keep in mind that northwestern North Dakota is also a coal mining region, and unlike the oil workers most of those workers are established state residents.

Of course these areas were always Republican, never a union Democratic tradition like in Appalachia. Also the coal mining industry there hasn't been hit anywhere near as hard, or really at all. (That's because it's lignite coal, which is a far more low quality coal than the bitluminous Appalachia is famous for, but still in relatively high use because it can be cheaply mined and transported unlike those deep earth mines. In fact, there are some power plants right next to the mines.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I was, and no one was hyping her up or thinking she had a chance.