ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[IceSpear]

Campbell internal has him up 3 on Heitkmamp, but Atlas told me this race was likely D

And Kirk's internals showed a tie.

Not that I disagree with your point. I think the race is a toss up.

[IceSpear]

Heitkamp has no chance against a Republican with a proven record of winning that is well known and represented the entire state in Congress.

[IceSpear]

Look out for Braun in Indiana

Great advice for Heini Heidkempt.

[IceSpear]

ND and TX in the same category is pretty funny.

[IceSpear]

Posting this solely for MT Treasurer's reaction:

North Dakota nasty: GOP makes Heitkamp top target for defeat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/20/north-dakota-senate-heitkamp-cramer-gop-787808

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She's very confident in how elastic ND is!

[IceSpear]

Damn, if even MT Treasurer is calling this a toss up now, Heitkamp might be doomed after all.

[IceSpear]

Would be kind of weird to conduct a Delaware poll at all, much less to release one on the same day as their primary.

[IceSpear]

Apparently Heitkamp's internals show her behind as well. She's probably going to be triaged soon.

I doubt she cares. She was triaged in 2012 too.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stick a fork in her... as I've been saying for a while this one needs to be triaged.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/surprisingly-senate-now-play

Yeah...Republicans, all the pundits, and probably you said the "race was over" in 2012 too. How did that work again?

And literally nobody was saying Rick Berg was a bad candidate until the retrospective #analysis. Gotta love revisionist history.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stick a fork in her... as I've been saying for a while this one needs to be triaged.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/surprisingly-senate-now-play

Yeah...Republicans, all the pundits, and probably you said the "race was over" in 2012 too. How did that work again?

And literally nobody was saying Rick Berg was a bad candidate until the retrospective #analysis. Gotta love revisionist history.

She may just win at the end of the day but I am not overly optimistic. Considering how poorly she is doing despite being well regarded and in a Republican midterm.... it is making me wonder how West Virginia and Montana Senate will end up.

Universally rural areas have been souring on Democrats even in this climate with a few exceptions (downstate IL, western wisconsin, rural Minnesota).

Astrology has Heitkamp winning but I am dumping any use of astrology in predicting these elections as logically I do not see Heitkamp winning at this point.

I'm not optimistic either, in fact I think she'll lose, but you'd think people would be a bit more cautious after all the egg every single analyst, "expert", pollster, and pundit (both professional and amateur, including myself) got on their face after 2012.

[IceSpear]

watch all the pundits move it back once another random poll has Heidi up 12, lol

[IceSpear]

Who else misses January, when it was Heitkamp vs. Tom Campbell, she was incredibly popular, and the race was Lean D?

Who else misses 2017, where McCaskill was getting blanched by Ann Wagner, Sherrod Brown was losing to Josh Mandel, Bob Casey was highly vulnerable, and Tennessee and Texas were completely safe for the Republicans (moreso than Utah)?

Not to mention Donnelly had a 0% chance of winning, Baldwin was extremely vulnerable to god-tier candidate Sean Duffy while Walker was "cruising", Senator-elect Rock was going to pull off an upset against Stabenow, and Maine/Virginia were "sleeper races"

Anyway, Heitkamp being in danger should be no surprise to anyone, though obviously she can't be counted out, since a 4% lead isn't insurmountable, especially since her party is having a good year.

Sen-elect Rock wouldn't have been an upset, he was inevitable.

Nothing will top early 2009 though, when Dems were on track to gain many seats, and their only vulnerable seats were Arkansas (but Blanche is still favored!) and California (but ONLY if Schwarzenegger runs!)

And yet we have people acting as if they know what the political environment will be like in 2024...

[IceSpear]

Kind of off topic, but I had a dream last night that a poll was released that had Heitkamp leading 24-14 with 62% undecided, and everyone on Atlas took it seriously and acted like she was heavily favored because she now had a double digit lead.

[IceSpear]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Yeah, this is a state that gave a 36 point margin to the pussygrabber.

[IceSpear]

Kind of off topic, but I had a dream last night that a poll was released that had Heitkamp leading 24-14 with 62% undecided, and everyone on Atlas took it seriously and acted like she was heavily favored because she now had a double digit lead.

Weird, I had that same dream, except it was a Beto lead.

Lol. I'm not even joking though, I really did have that dream.

Yes, I know I need to get out more, but that can wait until after the election.

[IceSpear]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Senators Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock sure agree with your comment.

So does President Trump, unironically though.

[IceSpear]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Looks like I was wrong. It moved votes towards Cramer!

And look at the abuse we took for saying that Cramer's "Akin comments" wouldn't matter in a state that gave a 36 point margin to the pussygrabber, haha.

The Atlas hivemind/echo chamber/circlejerk is powerful indeed and almost always buys into its own hype, lol.

[IceSpear]

Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

To be fair, we've gotten two polls in the past month. Both show Heitkamp down double digits. So it's not like it's just one poll here.

[IceSpear]

Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

DKE is less reactive than this place

How many incumbents trailing by double digits in multiple polls a month before the election ended up winning in the end? I can't imagine there are very many. So no, it's not "overreaction" at all to think Heitkamp is screwed.

And again, there have been two polls showing her down double digits, not just one. So if anything, if a poll came out showing Cramer +3 or something that would be the outlier.

[IceSpear]

Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

DKE is less reactive than this place

How many incumbents trailing by double digits in multiple polls a month before the election ended up winning in the end? I can't imagine there are very many. So no, it's not "overreaction" at all to think Heitkamp is screwed.

And again, there have been two polls showing her down double digits, not just one. So if anything, if a poll came out showing Cramer +3 or something that would be the outlier.

TWO double digit polls have come out. The DFM poll, which had Heidi doing the best, was by far the most accurate in 2012. Give me a break, lol. Heidi is still in this, and is gonna win IMO

That was a Democratic internal and didn't even poll the entire state.

[IceSpear]

Heitkamp is a NO on Kavanaugh.

Bye-tkamp

Yeah, she must be punished for daring to reject a drunkard sex creep for a lifetime appointment on the highest court.
Amirite bro?

This is what a majority of North Dakota voters unironically thinks.

It's funny people in this thread were trying to find a silver lining to the Republicans pulling out of this race. They're pulling out because it is a slam dunk. They couldn't care less whether Cramer wins by 5 or 15.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/jwgop/status/1048982945124552704

I’d rather see a public survey than these Twitter rumors

If the best news for Heitkamp is a "private poll" that some Msnbc hack claims to have seen than shows her down several points as an incumbent, then she really is screwed

[IceSpear]

I’m sure this is going to be Cramer's Akin moment.

#HeresHowCramerCanStillBeAkin

[IceSpear]

Surprise surprise, partisan SCOTUS gonna partisan.

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1049821777650769920

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1049754018032041986

Pack the court, create new states. Perhaps in North Dakota, each Reservation can secede and form its own state in a few years, and then Heitkamp can carpetbag there to get elected.

This will only matter at the margins, but the last thing Heidi needs right now is any more bad news.

[IceSpear]

Interesting:

https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/

Brand new approvals for all 100 senators, and Heidi is above Trump in net approval.

I'm absolutely sure Trump's approval is -5 in ND when Trump's approval is -7 in PA. /s

#realignment

In a world where Bill Nelson sweeps the Panhandle while Rick Scott carries Miami-Dade County, anything is possible.

Seriously though, Morning Consult is one of the junkiest pollsters ever. All their results should be flushed down the toilet.