ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Calthrina950]

https://youtu.be/QNZuXF7ewf0

Ad from Heitkamp explaining her Kavanaugh vote and mentioning that she voted for Gorsuch. It’s a good strategy and I think she should really stress that she would have voted for anyone BUT Kavanaugh.

Let's be honest: if she were down by a couple of points rather than double-digit she would have voted to confirm. This is more about securing a plum job after she leaves the senate

Or: she genuinely believed women had been assaulted

It's a combination of both. Heitkamp seems like she was sincerely disturbed by the allegations, but at the same time, her seat is in grave jeopardy. She knows that she will almost certainly lose at this point, so voting her conscience is an easier decision to make.

[Calthrina950]

Heitkamp apparently will be on 60 minutes explaining her vote.

I saw that 60 Minutes report just a few hours ago. She did come off as sincere, and flat out admitted that it would have been wiser for her to have voted for Kavanaugh than against him. In other words, she voted her conscience. Susan Collins was also interviewed by the program, and she seems to have adopted the same line that Manchin and the other Republican Senators have used: that Ford is a victim of sexual assault, but that she is mistaken in regards to the identity of her attacker (that is, Kavanaugh). I don't know how she, or the others can say that with a straight face, given that Ford has been adamant about her attacker's identity.

[Calthrina950]

I’m sure this is going to be Cramer's Akin moment.

This will not make a difference. At this point, I think that Heitkamp is done for.

[Calthrina950]

Grain of salt, but still...

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1052624947636506624

This is not surprising. And this whole debacle over the sexual assault allegations, I believe, has only put her further in the hole.

[Calthrina950]

Are we seriously freaking out over GOP internals?

Every North Dakota poll in the past few months has shown Heitkamp trailing Cramer statewide. Unless you are prepared to say that there will be another repeat of 2012, it's hard to see how the race could still be within the margin of error.

[Calthrina950]

Are we seriously freaking out over GOP internals?

Every North Dakota poll in the past few months has shown Heitkamp trailing Cramer statewide. Unless you are prepared to say that there will be another repeat of 2012, it's hard to see how the race could still be within the margin of error.

Ok, Mr. Dems in Disarray

I'm not saying that the Democrats are in "complete" disarray. Manchin, Tester, and Donnelly have clear leads in their races, while Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are leading by double digits. And Democrats are favored to take the House. What I am saying is that Democratic chances in many of the tossup states that will decide Senate control have decreased, and that the polls in those states have tightened. Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota are moving out of reach for them; the trends make that clear. And Arizona, Nevada, and Missouri are not sure wins for them either. My view on these matters is that of a realist.

[Calthrina950]

I really hope ND is the big surprise of election night.  I know everything points to her losing... but I hope either their is a silent women's vote, or when enough voters get in the voting booth they end up changing to Heitkamp b/c they think she will work the hardest of ND or think ND benefits from having a Senator in each party ... or something???

Of all the senate candidates and regardless of party (and from a very outside of ND perspective)... she seems very deserving of being in the senate.  She just strikes me as a very good, honest, down to earth, moderate, smart person, who works really hard for her state.

At this point, I just don't think an upset is going to happen. The polls seem to have moved out of the margin of error, and she is down by much more than she was back in 2012. Democrats are guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, and that will be this one. They could even lose Missouri, given that McCaskill is slightly trailing Hawley.

[Calthrina950]

I am now starting to seriously wonder if Heitkamp will lose by double digits next month. We have now had two polls showing her trailing Cramer by more than 10 points. As I said before, Cramer's victory will complete North Dakota's transition into a solidly Republican state at all levels.

[Calthrina950]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

[Calthrina950]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I wasn't here, but comments referring to Lincoln have been made, on this thread and elsewhere, concerning that.

[Calthrina950]

Heitkamp has only been down double digits in 2 polls, the race has been rarely polled and ND polling is crap anyway. I'm not saying she'll win(though 538's fundamentals do), but I am saying that the narrative that Heitkamp is 100% DOA and will be, well, Blanched, is foolish, and there is a wide range of possible outcomes for this race.

There is still a possibility that Heitkamp could win, but that possibility is very low at this point. The polls that have come out thus far are outside of the margin of error.

[Calthrina950]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

[Calthrina950]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

Actually she lost by 12, which believe it or not was viewed as a fairly good result for her at the time, since most people expected her to get Blanched after Dems got BTFO in 2014.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

My mistake. That is still a pretty bad result. And I think Heitkamp will lose by double digits.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1055631732320411648

She can raise enough campaign dough to surpass Jeff Bezos' net worth, but that doesn't translate into votes.

Also, where is most of this money coming from? I highly doubt that it's just from North Dakota alone.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1055631732320411648

She can raise enough campaign dough to surpass Jeff Bezos' net worth, but that doesn't translate into votes.

Also, where is most of this money coming from? I highly doubt that it's just from North Dakota alone.

Agreed.  If she wins this thing, then that means Donnelly and McCaskill are winning too.

My belief is that she and McCaskill will lose, and that Donnelly will just barely hold on. However, the possibility that all three lose has increased with the recent spate of polls that have come out. Hopefully they do not. We need moderate Democrats, and losing them would only deepen political polarization.

[Calthrina950]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

[Calthrina950]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

If the polls are to be trusted, Democrats are not only easily winning the House but also Senate races in Trump +>18 states, which really shouldn’t be the case if this were merely a Democratic "ripple".

But they are only barely winning those races. Indiana and Missouri are still tossups, and it is by no means guaranteed that Democrats will hold them next week. West Virginia, of course, is an exception to this, but I attribute it to Manchin's long-time incumbency status and the weakness of his opponent's campaign. I would consider 2018 to be a true wave if it were 1994 in reverse, a year in which not a single Republican incumbent (to my knowledge) lost and in which they made major gains in both Houses of Congress.

Instead, it is shaping up to be a repeat of 2006, without the element of winning in the Senate and with less impressive performances by Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Keep in mind that Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Wyoming, all states where Democratic governors won by huge landslides 12 years ago, are poised to reelect Republican governors, and that Kansas, where a Democrat also won in a landslide that year, might still be held by Republicans.

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

With how bad the Senate map is (we’re talking historically bad), it was always a super long shot for Democrats to take the Senate even in a tsunami.

I agree that the Senate map is very bad for Democrats. But a true national wave would overcome such a deficiency.

[Calthrina950]

2018 is not a blue wave because dems aren't winning in Wyoming

That was not the point that I was trying to argue. I was trying to draw a comparison between this election and 2006, to show that Democratic performances will not be as impressive on the gubernatorial level.