ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Brittain33]

$ 1.6 Million will be the amount of money that GOP outside Groups will spend in ND every day in October and November 2018. This tells us nothing. It will all come down to the GOP candidate. If it's a low energy guy like Rick Berg, she may survive. If not, she'll lose by 5 or more.

Bear in mind that North Dakota is one of those few states where it's possible for a candidate to have personally met a sizable percentage of the electorate.

Not for nothing that ND and MT were the two Senate races Nate Silver called wrong in 2012.

[Brittain33]

Why is Cramer a weak candidate again?

[Brittain33]

Maybe they're taking encouragement from the rebound in R polling.

[Brittain33]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

[Brittain33]

Thousands of workers have flooded into North Dakota since 2012 to drill oil. Guess how they are voting? I suspect it is for the GOP.

The oil boom has crashed since then, though. The man camps have been abandoned.

[Brittain33]

Cramer with some remarkable tone deafness on Kavanaugh

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/politics/kfile-cramer/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Oh boy. I bet he didn’t want to spend the next two weeks explaining what he really meant here, but tough luck. Get ‘em, Heidi.

[Brittain33]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

It doesn't need to.

Just moving the needle slightly can make a huge difference.

Yeah. If Heitkamp ekes out a narrow win this November, how incredible would it be that the Kavanaugh nomination took away a critical senate seat from the Republicans?

[Brittain33]

Unless Ford face plants at her testimony, no Dem is going to vote for Kavanaugh. They have enough cover to get out of having to vote yes.

[Brittain33]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

So has Iowa, and yet...

[Brittain33]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

Hawley in particular knows the danger of speaking on this in his race.

[Brittain33]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

Hawley in particular knows the danger of speaking on this in his race.

Braun too.

Oh, duh.

[Brittain33]

Heitkamp campaign sending him shovels to keep digging.

[Brittain33]

Heitkamp needs to do a guest spot on the Lawrence Welk Show.

[Brittain33]

I’d rather see a public survey than these Twitter rumors

Speaking for myself, I would be perfectly happy to have Twitter insiders lie to me for the next month that Heitkamp is tied in private polls so I can save up all my disappointment for Election Day.

[Brittain33]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

That's generally how political campaigns work.

I have friends who donate to a lot of campaigns who are particularly annoyed with Heitkamp emails.

[Brittain33]

I love the new thread title.

For people who don't get the reference, start around 2:40 in this clip from Whatever Happened to Baby Jane?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zYmVHFcx_o

[Brittain33]

I'm surprised that the tariff hit to farmers hasn't helped Heitkamp more. The only way those tariffs will get reversed is with a Congress that is actually willing to disagree with Trump on policy instead of being afraid of disagreeing.

[Brittain33]

Just seems so bizarre she'd end up losing in 2018 while she won in 2012 under much less favorable circumstances. Rick Berg must have been Todd Akin level of bad.

The partisan lean of North Dakota was quite a bit better in 2012 than it is now, unfortunately for Heitkamp.

They like Trump a lot more than they liked Romney.

As for Kavanaugh, maybe there's a rural perjurer preferrer factor here, but we can't know for certain.

[Brittain33]

Glad to see her go down by double digits, but we need to sink McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester in the same fashion too. That way we won't have to deal with any unnecessary BS when Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets replaced.

#SendTrumpReinforcements

#56GOPSENATESEATS

#ConfirmAmy

Christ you're obnoxious.

But remember, he's a socialist who only wants Republicans to win so Democrats will have a better 2020.

[Brittain33]

"I want to believe" but isn't this literally "unskewing" a poll?

45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

[Brittain33]

Well, this gives Heidi the biggest chance to do whatever she can to pull it out.

All that money won't buy you an election though ... (especially not in a tiny state like ND).

Money never buys you an election. But it can give her the best chance at voter turnout with GOTV and ads.

I wonder if it can help with Native Americans needing to get ID and get to the polls because of the state's voter suppression law.