1988 Joe Biden vs Bob Dole

[Jaguar4life]

Let's say Joe Biden's plagiarism scandal never occurs and the Iran Contra thing hurts Bush which gives Bob Dole the nomination.

How would the election between Joe Biden/Bill Clinton vs Bob Dole/Jeane Kirkpatrick go like?

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

1988: It's the Economy, Senator

Joe Biden/Bill Clinton: 282 E. Votes, 49.8%
Bob Dole/Jeane Kirkpatrick: 256 E. Votes, 48.1%

 

[Jaguar4life]

What do you think gives Biden the  advantage?

[TheSaint250]

1988: It's the Economy, Senator

Joe Biden/Bill Clinton: 282 E. Votes, 49.8%
Bob Dole/Jeane Kirkpatrick: 256 E. Votes, 48.1%

 

Kentucky would probably go for Dole.  Biden had working-class appeal, but I don't think it was as strong as Clinton/Gore.  Clinton being VP nominee also probably would not have changed much in Kentucky.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

1988: It's the Economy, Senator

Joe Biden/Bill Clinton: 282 E. Votes, 49.8%
Bob Dole/Jeane Kirkpatrick: 256 E. Votes, 48.1%

 

How does Dole win Missouri with <40%?

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp - 318 EVs

Joe Biden/Paul Simon - 220 EVs

... Or if Al Gore was chosen as VP:

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp - 292 EVs

Joe Biden/Al Gore - 246 EVs

[Mr. Smith]

Sen. Joe Biden/Fmr. Governor Chuck Robb
Sen. Bob Dole/Rep. Jack Kemp

[Lord Admirale]

Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)/Governor Thomas Kean (R-NJ) - 360 EV
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)/Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO) - 178 EV

[Mr. Smith]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp - 318 EVs

Joe Biden/Paul Simon - 220 EVs

Who came in third in Ohio?

[Lord Admirale]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

California was pretty Republican until Pete Wilson messed up. The last time it went Democrat (excluding LBJ's landslide) was 1948.

[Mr. Smith]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

California was pretty Republican until Pete Wilson messed up. The last time it went Democrat (excluding LBJ's landslide) was 1948.

False:

It was only a Lean R state at best after 1958 when Bill Knowland screwed up and let Pat Brown into Sacramento.

Everything else pretty much relied on Reagan and Nixon's coattails to stay afloat for the GOP and this extends to Bush Sr winning '88.

In 1960, JFK was called the winner initially, it took absentee votes to flip it back to the native son.

In 1968, Humphrey lost by 3 points, despite the odds being completely against him and the Senate seat flipped D...and hasn't changed since!

In 1970, the Senate seat flipped by a YUGE margin

In 1976, Carter was a really bad fit for the state. He didn't win the primary either times, not against Brown or Ted.

In 1982's midterms, Pete Wilson slid into The Senate thanks to a last minute boost from Reagan. Before that, they were neck and neck, with Jerry having the advantage. And we all know about The Bradley Effect regarding the other race.

The 80's was a resurgence then, and the main office holders had to remain considerably farther left than average for a Republican to hold on.


It stands to reason in light of these facts, that Dukakis quite easily could've had the state with a better put together campaign and a little more charisma  and that Bush Sr benefited YUGE from Reagan.


Now Joe Biden would be the perfect guy to fire up the liberal base in ways Dukakis either wouldn't or couldn't, he'd bring energy not seen since JFK. While Dole, boring as ever, and not nearly so tied to Reagan would NOT have the same luck Bush Sr got...and he still barely won the state,

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

California was pretty Republican until Pete Wilson messed up. The last time it went Democrat (excluding LBJ's landslide) was 1948.

California trended Democratic even during the Reagan years. Bob Dole would have sent Californians running into Biden's arms.

(Furthermore it was Reagan, not Wilson, who is responsible for the dominance Democrats now enjoy in the state.)

[Mr. Smith]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

California was pretty Republican until Pete Wilson messed up. The last time it went Democrat (excluding LBJ's landslide) was 1948.

California trended Democratic even during the Reagan years. Bob Dole would have sent Californians running into Biden's arms.

(Furthermore it was Reagan, not Wilson, who is responsible for the dominance Democrats now enjoy in the state.)

Wrong:

It was Bill Knowland that sent the state leftwards. Pete Wilson was just the final, long delayed nail in the coffin that only took so long because Reagan and Nixon propped the GOP up. That and Carter was an abysmal choice for the state.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Dole isn't winning California guys. Especially not if Bush r could barely hold it against someone like Dukakis.

California was pretty Republican until Pete Wilson messed up. The last time it went Democrat (excluding LBJ's landslide) was 1948.

California trended Democratic even during the Reagan years. Bob Dole would have sent Californians running into Biden's arms.

(Furthermore it was Reagan, not Wilson, who is responsible for the dominance Democrats now enjoy in the state.)

Wrong:

It was Bill Knowland that sent the state leftwards. Pete Wilson was just the final, long delayed nail in the coffin that only took so long because Reagan and Nixon propped the GOP up. That and Carter was an abysmal choice for the state.

I have no doubt that you know much more about California politics than I do but I have to wonder whether your theory holds up when, nearly 35 years after Brown defeated Knowland, conservative Republicans were still winning statewide office with upwards of 55% of the vote.  

Ultimately, demographics are more important than any one election.