Primus Inter Pares - 2015 EU Referendum

May 2015 - Burnham makes the ultimate gamble on Europe, will it work?

Personally popular despite a troubled government over the past few years, Prime Minister Andy Burnham found himself at a major dilemma on the issue of Europe. With the European Union made stronger by the EU Constitution and the renewed success of the Euro as most of Europe recovered from the 2004 Economic Crisis the calls for further integration and federalization increased, putting Burnham at a disadvantage. Personally a staunch pro-European, Burnham had committed to promote reform in the EU to drive down immigration, his attempts at negotiation with freedom of movement going nowhere. To that he had to add the constant undermining of him by the Labour hard-left, increasingly eurosceptic, and the continued existence of New Deal, that had won three by-elections in a row against the Government.

Well aware that if he called a referendum on further integration into Europe defeat would be almost certain, Burnham settled on what he saw as the ultimate tactical maneuver: Calling for a referendum on the membership of the European Union (which easily passed Parliament with Conservative support) Burnham intends to achieve a strong Remain vote to his own advantage, cementing his authority inside the party, silencing his critics on the hard-left and delivering New Deal a death blow. With most polls pointing to a strong Remain victory, Burnham stands confident that he can translate his popularity (despite his party's poor approval ratings) into a result that will give him a stronger hand at the negotiating table.

Remain: Unlike 2005 the bitter partisanship has made it impossible to field a sole pro-Europe, and as a result, Prime Minister Burnham leads the main Remain effort alongside most of the Labour Party, while the Green Party, the Reform Party, a few Conservative Pattenites and the Liberal Democrats are fielding smaller efforts of their own. With the support of Prime Ministers Major, Heseltine, Prescott, Livingstone and Patten, they argue Britain must continue to stand inside the European Union, and warn of dark times should the UK ever leave the Union.

Leave: Two main campaigns have risen to fight for a leave result, one being the majority of the Conservative Party, and the other espoused by New Deal and Robert Kilroy-Silk. Citing what they see as the many flaws of the EU (corruption, bureaucratization, lack of immigration control, loss of sovereignty), they argue it is time for the United Kingdom to follow its own road outside Europe, warning against the dangers of a more federal Europe and a stronger EU. Despite polling showing a strong Remain victory, the Leave campaigners are confident they can turn the polls around and stage an upset.

Two days for this one. I'm well aware of how evident the parallels are with OTL, but I just couldn't resist it.

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