ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[MAINEiac4434]

https://www.pressherald.com/2013/08/15/maines-unhealthy-democratic-union-alliance-thwarts-economic-growth_2013-08-15/

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Wow nvm

I'd take Terry Hayes more seriously if she actually had an issues page on her website. It's almost July and... nothing. Even Alan Caron has one.

Woah, you're right.

I had a friend who briefly worked for her, and she said that her campaign team is made up of the exact same people who made up Cutler's 2014 run. If they haven't updated their playbook, prepare for the exact same spoilerific campaign that Cutler ran in 2014. She also said that they said things like (paraphrasing) "nobody pays attention before the summer, so we don't even need to have a platform until then."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leans R with unpopular Mills, but Golden will win

[Free Bird]

I'm calling this one a tossup. We all know full well how Moody will portray himself and Mills, but the higher Democratic turnout does show promise, even if it could be at least partially because Moody was basically assured the nod going in. We'll have to see how much of a Cutler effect Hayes has.

Also, can we just agree that, in execution, RCV is a goddamn mess?

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm calling this one a tossup. We all know full well how Moody will portray himself and Mills, but the higher Democratic turnout does show promise, even if it could be at least partially because Moody was basically assured the nod going in. We'll have to see how much of a Cutler effect Hayes has.

Also, can we just agree that, in execution, RCV is a goddamn mess?

The actual ranked choice count took less than an hour. It was getting all the ballots in one place, and counting them in the first place.

[ON Progressive]

I'm calling this one a tossup. We all know full well how Moody will portray himself and Mills, but the higher Democratic turnout does show promise, even if it could be at least partially because Moody was basically assured the nod going in. We'll have to see how much of a Cutler effect Hayes has.

Also, can we just agree that, in execution, RCV is a goddamn mess?

The actual ranked choice count took less than an hour. It was getting all the ballots in one place, and counting them in the first place.

Yeah. Don't blame RCV for the fact ME's elections are way too decentralized which results in rural municipalities not reporting their results for days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm calling this one a tossup. We all know full well how Moody will portray himself and Mills, but the higher Democratic turnout does show promise, even if it could be at least partially because Moody was basically assured the nod going in. We'll have to see how much of a Cutler effect Hayes has.

Also, can we just agree that, in execution, RCV is a goddamn mess?
/quote]
 
ME like AK is such a weird state, Mills is vulnerable.

[MAINEiac4434]

Some concessdorsements:

Betsy:

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Eves:

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Cote:

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[MAINEiac4434]

Alan Caron was previously young and cool, is now old and wack.

https://twitter.com/rupaullepage/status/1010369930431254531?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Moody, wins this race, given how unpopular Janet Mills is

[MAINEiac4434]

We finally have the full Republican results: blank ballots beat Ken Fredette. Nearly 8% of Republicans did not vote for a single Republican candidate. Sign of potential rebellion against Moody?

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results18.html#nonrank

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I'd guess that 8% were tea party/alt-right rather than moderates, so no idea where they'd go in the GE

[MAINEiac4434]

I'd guess that 8% were tea party/alt-right rather than moderates, so no idea where they'd go in the GE

Mason was the Tea Party dude, though (but not necessarily alt-right).

Maybe they’ll stay home.

[TheSaint250]

Is RCV prohibited in all state-based elections or just the statewide ones (minus the federal elections)?

[MAINEiac4434]

Is RCV prohibited in all state-based elections or just the statewide ones (minus the federal elections)?

All state elections. State Senate, State House, Judge of Probate, District Attorney, Sheriff

[TheSaint250]

Is RCV prohibited in all state-based elections or just the statewide ones (minus the federal elections)?

All state elections. State Senate, State House, Judge of Probate, District Attorney, Sheriff

Ok thank you!

[MAINEiac4434]

Just got polled; favorability of the 4 Gov candidates, Pingree, Collins and Trump, Gov race itself, effectiveness of attacks and Moody and positives for Mills. Probably a Mills internal, I don’t know if it’ll be released.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mills might lose.

[wesmoorenerd]

Mills might lose.

She's solidly a favorite at the moment no matter which way you slice it. She's not as much of a lock as Pritzker or Lujan Grisham, but I'd be shocked to see ME vote for Moody. Even on a bad night, I'd expect the Dems to pick up those three and Michigan.

[MAINEiac4434]

Mills might lose.

Well, yeah. Everyone might lose. It’s a toss-up race right now.

[TheSaint250]

Mills might lose.

Well, yeah. Everyone might lose. It’s a toss-up race right now.

Is Hayes even going to be a big factor this time around? The lack of RCV will most likely hurt her, as I would assume likely Hayes voters would lean towards the Democrat here and will vote for Mills now.

Then again, the last time that only two candidates got more than 5% was 1970.

EDIT: Wow, I just put together that 2018 Republican nominee Shawn Moody was 2010 independent candidate Shawn Moody. What kind of campaign was he running then?

[MAINEiac4434]

Mills might lose.

Well, yeah. Everyone might lose. It’s a toss-up race right now.

Is Hayes even going to be a big factor this time around? The lack of RCV will most likely hurt her, as I would assume likely Hayes voters would lean towards the Democrat here and will vote for Mills now.

Then again, the last time that only two candidates got more than 5% was 1970.

EDIT: Wow, I just put together that 2018 Republican nominee Shawn Moody was 2010 independent candidate Shawn Moody. What kind of campaign was he running then?

Here’s the thing: Hayes is running clean elections, but the GOP in the legislature is refusing to fund the clean elections fund, because most legislative Democrats run clean. Hayes only has $91K left. You can’t run a competent statewide campaign without party backing with only $91K. She is completely screwed unless the GOP acquiesces.

Alan Caron, however, is not running clean and is also rich as balls. He has a whole bunch of web ads nd a TV ad going right now. It’s not a perfect indication, but he’s passed Hayes in Facebook likes (both trail Mills and Moody by thousands, however).

Shawn Moody has changed basically every one of his political positions from 2010 to 2018 in order to get LePage backing in the primary and the GOP nomination over Mayhew and Mason. He went from a pro-choice, pro-RCV, pro-Medicaid expansion centrist whose primary concern was cutting business taxes to LePage with a smile.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mills might lose.

Well, yeah. Everyone might lose. It’s a toss-up race right now.

Dems can still have a good night and Mills can lose. RI and CT and ME can go GOP. 😀

[MAINEiac4434]

Shawn Moody bought an ad on a NASCAR




Janet Mills used it as an excuse to attack him, as he unveilied the car while a conference on the opioid epidemic was ongoing, which Moody and Mills were both invited to speak at:

https://twitter.com/JanetMillsforME/status/1019738653621346304

[MAINEiac4434]

Mills with an extremely small fundraising lead over Moody, but the majority of his donations came from a single $500K loan to his own campaign. Hayes has most COH

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Mills with an extremely small fundraising lead over Moody, but the majority of his donations came from a single $500K loan to his own campaign. Hayes has most COH

She has the most COH yet she can't afford an issues page..