ME: Independents Gaining Traction
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  ME: Independents Gaining Traction
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Maxwell
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« Reply #125 on: November 21, 2017, 09:32:10 PM »
« edited: November 21, 2017, 09:34:40 PM by Maxwell »

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

I'm pretty sure Charlie Baker is going to get a primary challenge. it won't be successful, but it will happen.

also lol. Massachusetts and Vermont are historically republican states where the GOP occasionally win over old moderates who usually vote Dem otherwise. (well, okay, maybe not Massachusetts thanks to their catholic population) Baker has no ability to build up the GOP in Massachusetts, let alone in the nation, and the Vermont GOP has zero influence on even their next door neighbors, the crackpot New Hampshire GOP.

In Maryland, sometimes people just get cranky about taxes and vote Republican for Governor. Larry Hogan is not new - his dad was a congressman, and Larry had been running for years, either through actual political campaigns or through anti-tax groups. Larry Hogan is also not particularly moderate. And either way, he's not exactly building the Maryland GOP either, rather running on his own as a monolith.

also, dude, I was a FISCONSOCLIB a while ago, I was waiting for the GOP to change in my direction but honestly there's no audience for it. The way the GOP wins is through culture war. that's about as simple as it gets.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #126 on: November 21, 2017, 09:35:52 PM »

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

I'm pretty sure Charlie Baker is going to get a primary challenge. it won't be successful, but it will happen.

also lol. Massachusetts and Vermont are historically republican states where the GOP occasionally win over old moderates who usually vote Dem otherwise. Baker has no ability to build up the GOP in Massachusetts, let alone in the nation, and the Vermont GOP has zero influence on even their next door neighbors, the crackpot New Hampshire GOP.

In Maryland, sometimes people just get cranky about taxes and vote Republican for Governor. Larry Hogan is not new - his dad was a congressman, and Larry had been running for years, either through actual political campaigns or through anti-tax groups. Larry Hogan is also not particularly moderate. And either way, he's not exactly building the Maryland GOP either, rather running on his own as a monolith.

also, dude, I was a FISCONSOCLIB a while ago, I was waiting for the GOP to change in my direction but honestly there's no audience for it. The way the GOP wins is through culture war. that's about as simple as it gets.

Yeah, of course they're not popular nationwide with the party, but they are integral parts of the party.

Also, I'll still wait and see. I'm not gonna give up on a party just because the leaders are idiots, even if I don't vote for the party occasionally (most likely for President in 2020). That might sound naïve, but so be it.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #127 on: November 21, 2017, 09:38:35 PM »

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Whatever you say.

If they're unwelcome, then I assume they will all be primaried next year?

The Republican Party will become more of a big tent once again. It will happen. They are starts in that direction.

Are you seriously suggesting that any of those people would have a shot at breaking even 1% in a national primary?

And no, the GOP isn't going to become a FISCULLY CONSURVATIVE SOSHULLY LIBRUHL party anytime soon - why would they? Cultural warfare is all they have; who would vote for a culturally libertine (not the right word but I'm going to use it anyway) party that advocates for things like Trumpcare and the tax bill?

Of course they couldn't. Not now. But once this "culture war" stuff dies down, the party will be reformed for the better.

It'll change soon.

They're literally no evidence to suggest that this is the case - as social media becomes even more ingrained in American (and global) life, people become even more and more trapped in their bubble of information. The "culture war" isn't a fad or whatever (it's been the cornerstone of American reactionary politics since it's conception, needless to say), and it's only going to intensify from here.

Who knows? More Republicans seem to be trending away from being completely pro-life and trending towards being in favor of SSM, as well as some form of amnesty.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #128 on: November 21, 2017, 09:44:29 PM »

Not that you can quantify whatever the hell "integral parts of the party" mean, but come on. Anyway, I still want an explanation as to how FISCONSOCLIB is a likely (or even viable) path for the Republican Party moving forward.

As the voters move left on social issues, so will the party to survive.


Again, Trump is not an aberration; he's the logical conclusion of decades of pandering to George Wallace voters. The right-wing demagoguery and welfare chauvinism of Trump isn't an anomaly or exclusive to him - he's just the latest manifestation of it.


lol


Edit: Republicans are becoming more friendly to amnesty? Are you serious?

http://thehill.com/latino/351901-poll-two-thirds-of-republicans-back-citizenship-for-daca-recipients

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/274575-poll-majority-of-republicans-support-path-to-citizenship
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #129 on: November 21, 2017, 09:47:14 PM »


Nice response. You got me there
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heatcharger
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« Reply #130 on: November 21, 2017, 09:50:41 PM »

Newsflash Saint: Republican politicians and donors are highly divorced from their voters on many issues. And lol at the idea that Republican leaders give any sh**ts about what is popular public policy.

I get that you are an extremely naive high schooler as were many of us, but uh, try not to be.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #131 on: November 21, 2017, 09:59:32 PM »

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Susan Collins? Carlos Curbelo? Elise Stefanik? Brian Sandoval? Spencer Cox? Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, probably one of the five most powerful women in the House? David Joyce? Lamar Alexander? Bill Haslam? Shelley Moore Capito?

The list goes on and on. In case any of you forgot, Kasich was the plurality of Trump's primary voters second choice, esp. in the Northeast, West Coast, and Midwest. Without Trump in the race, he and Bush combined would have cracked 30-40%.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #132 on: November 22, 2017, 12:17:16 AM »

No Republican is ever going to run as a moderate again thanks to the Tea Party/TRUMP.

There's Charlie Baker. And Larry Hogan. And Phil Scott.

There are still quite a few.

Those people are persona non grata in the national Republican Party and represent blue states. Don't be intellectually dishonest.

Susan Collins? Carlos Curbelo? Elise Stefanik? Brian Sandoval? Spencer Cox? Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, probably one of the five most powerful women in the House? David Joyce? Lamar Alexander? Bill Haslam? Shelley Moore Capito?

The list goes on and on. In case any of you forgot, Kasich was the plurality of Trump's primary voters second choice, esp. in the Northeast, West Coast, and Midwest. Without Trump in the race, he and Bush combined would have cracked 30-40%.
What poll says Kasich was not the plurality of Trump voters second choice?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #133 on: November 22, 2017, 02:40:13 AM »

Susan Collins? Carlos Curbelo? Elise Stefanik? Brian Sandoval? Spencer Cox? Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, probably one of the five most powerful women in the House? David Joyce? Lamar Alexander? Bill Haslam? Shelley Moore Capito?

The list goes on and on. In case any of you forgot, Kasich was the plurality of Trump's primary voters second choice, esp. in the Northeast, West Coast, and Midwest. Without Trump in the race, he and Bush combined would have cracked 30-40%.

- Collins is unpopular at home and is (presumably) extremely unpopular among GOP voters nationwide; no one besides psephologists know who Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is but if she was prominent enough to be a national name, obviously the base would despise her

- Stefanik, Curbelo, and (especially) Alexander are just generic Republicans so I don't understand their inclusion

- Haslam and Sandoval's national prospects were donor fantasies; they would've gone nowhere in 2016 and Haslam would've probably been sat at the kiddie table had he ran.

The others in your list include some random lieutenant governor and a totally irrelevant backbencher.

On abortion, gay rights, government spending, the Paris agreement, and immigration, Curbelo is undoubtedly moderate, as is Stefanik for the most part.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #134 on: November 22, 2017, 05:55:23 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2017, 05:57:33 AM by Chris Murphy 2020 »

So, uh, getting back on topic:

LePage backing Moody would be HUGE. It’d really screw over Mayhew and Fredette, who are unpopular with the public at large but arguably the two most prominent LePage-ites in the state. A LePage endorsement might be enough to get him over the finish line in a crowded primary such as this.

Not being a politician would help him in the general, too, especially if the Democrat is Janet Mills or Mark Eves (which it will be), two people who have gotten into very public spats with LePage. Moody could run as a quasi-“Drain The Swamp” candidate fighting “Dysfunction in Augusta” (even as the people running his campaign are largely responsible for that dysfunction, not Mills or Eves) and Mills would bleed enough to Hayes that it would be an agonizingly close race even as the Democrats probably retake the State Senate (they need only one seat).
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #135 on: November 22, 2017, 10:31:29 AM »

So, as jfern mentioned in the USGD board, the Maine Green Independent Party now has its second state representative: Henry John Bear (I already updated the Wikipedia page Tongue).
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Kamala
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« Reply #136 on: November 22, 2017, 10:50:54 AM »

Pingree: maybe.

Who the hell isn’t running? Might as well get Pingree’s daughter to run as well.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #137 on: November 22, 2017, 10:58:54 AM »

Pingree: maybe.

Who the hell isn’t running? Might as well get Pingree’s daughter to run as well.

They'll sort themselves out. The funny thing will be when the Republicans and Democrats narrow it down to one candidate each, and then there are still a bunch of semi-credible Independents.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #138 on: November 22, 2017, 11:12:15 AM »

So, as jfern mentioned in the USGD board, the Maine Green Independent Party now has its second state representative: Henry John Bear (I already updated the Wikipedia page Tongue).
Bear, as a Tribal Representative, doesn’t have a vote but sits in the legislature, sponsors and co-sponsors legislation and is a member of a handful of committees.

Pingree: maybe.

Who the hell isn’t running? Might as well get Pingree’s daughter to run as well.
Ohmigod

She’d lose. Too closely associated with Portland.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #139 on: November 22, 2017, 11:14:16 AM »

So I’ve done the math: Maine, despite being one of the smallest states in the union, currently has the most candidates running for Governor in 2018.

And all of them (okay, most of them) have a chance to win their primaries and the general election. I love Maine politics. I hate Maine politics.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #140 on: November 22, 2017, 11:28:46 AM »

Does Hayes have a chance at making as much of an impact as Cutler in 2010?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #141 on: November 22, 2017, 11:46:03 AM »

And no, the GOP isn't going to become a FISCULLY CONSURVATIVE SOSHULLY LIBRUHL party anytime soon - why would they?

Maybe it's just me, but I also seriously doubt that doing so would easily solve all their long-term problems like many posters on Atlas keep telling me.
The GOP would probably do better if they just adopt a socially accepting, but not nessecarily socially liberal tone, as well as a more moderate position on immigration.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #142 on: November 22, 2017, 01:16:44 PM »

Does Hayes have a chance at making as much of an impact as Cutler in 2010?
She’s ten times the candidate and person Cutler is. If it’s Mills/Mayhew/Hayes, I’d put money on Hayes.

She’s running publicly financed, though, so she won’t have as much money as Cutler did to saturate the airwaves.

The major parties underestimate her at their own risk.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #143 on: November 22, 2017, 03:18:10 PM »

Maine really is the Montana of the Northeast in many ways, lol.

Or, Montana is the Maine of the West.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #144 on: November 22, 2017, 06:11:53 PM »

Maine really is the Montana of the Northeast in many ways, lol.

Or, Montana is the Maine of the West.
This. We were a state first.
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #145 on: November 22, 2017, 07:57:40 PM »

Moody is the one I have my eye on right now (not to vote for, but someone who I think is in a strong position). Not only does he have Lepage staffers on his team, but he was an independent last go around and the independent label goes a long way here. Not to mention, he's a small business owner and not your typical politician. Commercials for Moody's Collision Center always seem to be playing.

I think the Democratic field is pretty weak too so I don't see this as much of an easy D pick-up as some others do.
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« Reply #146 on: November 22, 2017, 08:14:49 PM »

I love this race. So many candidates!

I'm still wrapping my head around the Moody/LePage news. I understand running the "Augusta sucks because of the political class" type of campaign -- and trust me, he's doing that -- but Moody is so unlike LePage in temperament. He's down to Earth, personable, easy to talk to. Not 100% bluster like LePage.

It worries me that he'd be tied so close to the Governor. But I'll wait for more before making a decision on him. I think for right now, if I HAD to vote for a Republican, my preferred choice would be Thibodeau.
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #147 on: November 22, 2017, 09:13:40 PM »

I love this race. So many candidates!

I'm still wrapping my head around the Moody/LePage news. I understand running the "Augusta sucks because of the political class" type of campaign -- and trust me, he's doing that -- but Moody is so unlike LePage in temperament. He's down to Earth, personable, easy to talk to. Not 100% bluster like LePage.

It worries me that he'd be tied so close to the Governor. But I'll wait for more before making a decision on him. I think for right now, if I HAD to vote for a Republican, my preferred choice would be Thibodeau.

What are your thoughts on the Democratic candidates?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #148 on: November 23, 2017, 01:24:21 AM »

John Jenkins sounds amazing. I’d like to see him and Hayes reach some agreement, though, where maybe she runs for the House and endorsed him.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #149 on: November 23, 2017, 07:06:02 PM »

John Jenkins sounds amazing. I’d like to see him and Hayes reach some agreement, though, where maybe she runs for the House and endorsed him.
Hayes is a much, much stronger general election candidate than the motivational speaker and ex-body builder.
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