What's the probability that the 2024 GOP nominee is female or a racial minority?

[Mr. Morden]

What’s the probability that the 2024 Republican nominee for president is either a woman or a racial minority (or both)?  And by “racial minority”, let’s include Hispanics.  So yes, Cruz and Rubio would count as “minority”.

Secondary question: If the 2024 GOP presidential nominee is a white male, what's the probability that he picks a woman or racial minority as his running mate?

[Mr. Morden]

I still don't think the Republican Party will be ready for a woman to lead their ticket, and in any case, Haley is the only realistic female Republican nominee I can think of. No Republican female Governors or Senators stand out and most are pretty old.

Joni Ernst spoke at both CPAC and the Faith & Freedom conference last year, then met with the New Hampshire delegation at the RNC.  She also did an event in New Hampshire just a few weeks before the election.  So I'd say she was laying the groundwork for 2020 back when it looked like Hillary Clinton would be the incumbent that year.  Now that Trump is the incumbent in 2020, I suspect she'll most likely run in 2024.

That said, she doesn't seem like a very compelling candidate, so I'm not expecting her to win the nomination.

[mvd10]

I can see it happen. If Trump is impeached in 2017 or 2018 I think Pence will pick Haley as VP. Rubio and Tim Scott also are great options. If Pence wins in 2020 Haley/Rubio/Scott is the overwhelming favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination and even if Pence loses in 2020 (s)he will have a good chance. If Trump doesn't get impeached and wins 2020 Pence probably is the 2024 nominee. If Trump doesn't get impeached but loses in 2020 (most likely scenario imo) I really don't know. Pence will run, but I imagine there will be a significant anti-Trump backlash in the GOP establishment which sees Pence as too close to Trump. Their ''champion'' probably will be someone like Rubio or Ryan.

[Skill and Chance]

Female: 35% or so, minority: 5% or so.  Even if Trump gets a 2nd term (as of now, I expect he will), it won't be a Pence coronation.  Trump's base doesn't transfer well enough to Pence.

[RINO Tom]

Female: 35% or so, minority: 5% or so.  Even if Trump gets a 2nd term (as of now, I expect he will), it won't be a Pence coronation.  Trump's base doesn't transfer well enough to Pence.

Trump's base isn't analagous to other groups in the Republican Party, as it is not ideologically pure, so to speak, and it will have no choice but to "transfer" to another type of Republican; Trump is the only Trump.

[Medal506]

Ted Cruz will most likely be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. Oh he has no chance? Oh yeah I forgot just like how Donald Trump had no chance of being the nominee oh wait he was the nominee last year. Well he's not president and never had a chance of becoming president. You know we ended with president Hillary Clinton right? Oh wait no Trump is president.

[peterthlee]

Female - nay
Racial minority - both little Marco and Cruz have a decent shot in 2024 (regardless of Trump's performance in 2020)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Haley has a decent shot for 2024, especially if Trump has but the single term and she can emerge relatively untainted. That said, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, Pence is likely the favorite for 2024.

[Santander]

Christians are the most oppressed minority in America.

[Young Moderate Republican]

What’s the probability that the 2024 Republican nominee for president is either a woman or a racial minority (or both)?  And by “racial minority”, let’s include Hispanics.  So yes, Cruz and Rubio would count as “minority”.

Secondary question: If the 2024 GOP presidential nominee is a white male, what's the probability that he picks a woman or racial minority as his running mate?

It's pretty likely, considering the second place primary finisher was a racial minority and chose a female running mate.

[Kingpoleon]

Females: Nikki Haley, Ivanka Trump, Mia Love, Mary Fallin, Joni Ernst, Shelley Moore Capito, Deb Fischer
Minorities: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Brian Sandoval, Mia Love

[Lincoln Republican]

If Republicans can persuade Condi Rice to run, highly unlikely, they would get both, female and minority.

And she would make a great President.

[Mister Mets]

Probably about one in three.

The likeliest nominee is Mike Pence, a white guy. He could become President if something happens to Trump, and be seeking the White House in his own right. If Trump's reelected and serves two full terms, he'd start a primary in the enviable position of being an incumbent veep.

While there are potential minority nominees (including people who haven't been elected to statewide office) the bench of white guys is deeper. Of the 15 Republican Senators elected/ appointed in or after the 2014 midterms, 12 were white guys.

I think the party would like to nominate a woman or a racial minority, but even ignoring Pence, odds favor a white guy simply because there are more choices there.

[catographer]

Ironically at the moment, VT has a Republican governor and WV has a Democratic one.

[RINO Tom]

Ironically at the moment, VT has a Republican governor and WV has a Democratic one.

Not ironic at all.

[President Johnson]

Nikki Haley has a decent chance to be nominated, no matter whether Trump loses in 2020 or not. She's young, in the GOP mainstream and has now experience in both domestic and foreign policy.

[Young Conservative]

40-50%. Here's a list of who it could be:
-Marco Rubio
-Ted Cruz
-Nicki Haley
-Joni Ernst
-Tim Scott
-Mia Love
-dare I say....Ivanka Trump
-Someone New

[Lord Admirale]

Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Joni Ernst, Tim Scott, Susana Martinez, Shelley Capito, Ted Cruz (cringe), Ben Carson, Herman Cain, and others.

[Medal506]

I think Cruz could be the Republican nominee in 2024 but I don't think race or gender matters when it comes to politics. I think it should be more about the issues and less about silly things like race and sex

[Skunk]

Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Joni Ernst, Tim Scott, Susana Martinez, Shelley Capito, Ted Cruz (cringe), Ben Carson, Herman Cain, and others.

PLEASE be Herman Cain, I need a good laugh.

[Medal506]

40-50%. Here's a list of who it could be:
-Marco Rubio
-Ted Cruz
-Nicki Haley
-Joni Ernst
-Tim Scott
-Mia Love
-dare I say....Ivanka Trump
-Someone New

Ivanka Trump is not a Republican

[hopper]

40-50%. Here's a list of who it could be:
-Marco Rubio
-Ted Cruz
-Nicki Haley
-Joni Ernst
-Tim Scott
-Mia Love
-dare I say....Ivanka Trump
-Someone New

Ivanka Trump is not a Republican

Yeah I heard she is not affiliated with either party(Dem or Republican) but I do think her politics are left of center though.

[hopper]

Possible; but I'd say very unlikely. Pence will probably be the nominee in 2024 and has a good chance at winning his own term in 2020 barring a horribly timed recession.

I do think that the first gop President in a post 2024 Democratic realignment will be in 2036 or 2040 and it'll be a millennial woman (possibly born in the 90's) and a moderate.

So the Republicans would have their own Bill Clinton or dare I say Jimmy Carter to take the party back to the center of the political spectrum in 2036 or 2040.

[hueylong]

Surprised no one has mentioned Will Hurd. I think he's up there in terms of likelihood. Once this Trump train wreck has concluded, GOP will desperately yearn for sanity again and he can provide that. He's knowledgeable, politically savvy, and has a good intelligence background. At least, this is what the optimist in me says. In actuality it'll probably be someone like Sheriff Clarke or Ben Carson.