Post Random Maps Here 2.0.

[mianfei]

1988 if Dukakis won Bentsen’s home state of Texas:

• Dukakis/Bentsen (Democratic): 52.05 percent, 357 EV
• Bush/Quayle (Republican): 46.95 percent, 181 EV

[mianfei]

1984 if Mondale won Geraldine Ferraro’s home state of New York:

• Reagan/Bush senior (Republican): 54.7 percent, 429 EV
• Mondale/Ferraro (Democratic): 44.5 percent, 109 EV

[mianfei]

1972 if McGovern won Sargent Shriver’s home state of Maryland:

• McGovern/Shriver (Democratic): 49.5 percent, 285 EV
• Nixon/Agnew (Republican): 48.7 percent, 253 EV

[mianfei]

1964 if Goldwater won William Miller’s home state of New York:

• Barry Goldwater/William E. Miller (Republican): 58.2 percent, 509 EV
• Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey (Democratic): 42.3 percent, 29 EV

[mianfei]

1960 if Nixon won Henry Cabot Lodge’s home state of Massachusetts:

• Richard Nixon/Henry Cabot Lodge junior (Republican): 60.1 percent, 492 EV
• Unpledged Electors (Dixiecrat): 1.4 percent, 29 EV
• John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat): 38.5 percent 16 EV

[mianfei]

1956 if Stevenson won Estes Kefauver’s home state of Tennessee:

• Dwight D. Eisenhower/Richard M. Nixon (Republican): 57.0 percent, 446 EV
• Adlai Stevenson II/Estes Kefauver (Democratic): 42.3 percent, 85 EV

[mianfei]

1948 if Dewey won Earl Warren’s home state of California:

• Harry S. Truman/Alben Barkley (Democratic): 49.3 percent, 254 EV
• Thomas E. Dewey/Earl Warren (Republican): 45.3 percent, 239 EV
• J. Strom Thurmond/Fielding Lewis Wright: 2.4 percent, 38 EV

Election goes into the House of Representatives.

[mianfei]

1940 if Roosevelt won Henry Wallace’s home state of Iowa:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Henry Agard Wallace (Democratic): 57.0 percent, 504 EV
• Wendell Lewis Willkie/Charles A. McNary (Republican): 42.4 percent, 27 EV

1940 if Willkie won McNary’s home state of Oregon:

• Wendell Lewis Willkie/Charles A. McNary (Republican): 49.0 percent, 311 EV
• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Henry Agard Wallace (Democratic): 50.4 percent, 220 EV

[mianfei]

1936 if Landon won Frank Knox’s home state of Illinois:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/John Nance Garner (Democratic): 51.8 percent, 358 EV
• Alfred Mossman Landon/Frank Knox (Republican): 45.5 percent, 173 EV

[mianfei]

1932 if Hoover won Charles Curtis’ home state of Kansas:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/John Nance Garner: 53.2 percent, 385 EV
• Herbert Clark Hoover/Charles Curtis: 43.9 percent, 146 EV

[mianfei]

1924 if Davis won Charles Bryan’s home state of Nebraska:

• John Calvin Coolidge/Charles Dawes (Republican): 44.9 percent, 282 EV
• John William Davis/Charles Bryan (Democratic): 38.0 percent, 212 EV
• Robert Marion La Follette/Burton K. Wheeler (Progressive): 16.6 percent, 37 EV

[mianfei]

1920 if Cox won Franklin Roosevelt’s home state of New York:

• James Middleton Cox/Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Democratic): 53.0%, 346 EV
• Warren Gamail Harding/John Calvin Coolidge (Republican): 42.3%, 185 EV

[morgankingsley]

1924 if Davis won Charles Bryan’s home state of Nebraska:

• John Calvin Coolidge/Charles Dawes (Republican): 44.9 percent, 282 EV
• John William Davis/Charles Bryan (Democratic): 38.0 percent, 212 EV
• Robert Marion La Follette/Burton K. Wheeler (Progressive): 16.6 percent, 37 EV

I honestly believe that if the election went to the house in 1924, lafollette would be president

[ScottieF]

AMERICAN POLITICS: THE NEXT 20 YEARS


2020: Betomania

Fmr. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - 340 EV, 50%
Pres. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN) - 198 EV, 43%
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (I-OH)/Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper (I-CO) - 0 EV, 6%


2024: The Emerging Democratic Majority Emerges

Pres. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)/Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - ~413 EV, 54%
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN)/Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) - ~125 EV, 44%


2028: Democratic Reagan Confirmed

Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)/??? - ~320 EV, 51%
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)/??? - ~218 EV, 46%


2032: The New GOP

Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)/Vice Pres. - ~220 EV, 47%
Two Young Center-Right Populist Republicans - ~318 EV, 50%


2036: Four More Years

Random Democrats - ~200 EV, 46%
Incumbent Republicans - ~338 EV, 52%

[Lord Admirale]

(snip)

Honestly I don't see Appalachia getting any more Republican. It's possible that a realigning president would loosen the GOP's grip on the working class areas that Trump impacted in 2016.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

2064

Governor William R. Ballard (D–Wash.)/Mayor Kyria Wenkoop (D–Mich.) — 60.1%
President Melissa Fernandez (R–Ohio)/Vice President Amy Kind (R–N.C.) – 37.5%

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

I don't know if anyone has done this, but whatever.

In this first map, Ralph Nader wins every state in 2000 that voted ≥5% Green in real life. As you can see, no candidate reaches 270, and the vote will go to the House of Representatives.

For President, 2000
270 needed to win

George Bush (R-TX) - 257
Albert Gore (D-TN) - 221
Ralph Nader (G-CT) - 60

In this map, every state that voted ≥2.45% Green goes for Nader. The state that gives Nader 270 is Idaho, which went 2.45% Nader in the actual 2000 race.

For President, 2000
270 needed to win

Ralph Nader (G-CT) - 270 ✔
George Bush (R-TX) - 197
Albert Gore (D-TN) - 71

[Politician]

[bagelman]

Here's how I think it would go:

360-178 GOP (like IN)

Here's how it could go if the nation voted near an inverted margin relative to the 1974 midterm generic ballot:

418-120 GOP (like TX)

Obama may be forced to resign in November, as little as a week after his landslide defeat. President Biden serves as the 45th president for at least a month, probably two, and pardons both President Obama and SoS Hillary Clinton (who also resigned, possibly before the election). Mitt Romney is inaugurated as the 46th president in January 2013.

Romney is beatable if the Democrats harness outsider energy (Sanders=Reagan analogue) but it's not impossible for them to nominate Clinton somehow or some other DLCesque hack and give Romney another four years.

Looking forward, 2020 is Lean D either with the reelection of a popular Democratic outsider president or with the 8 year itch needing scratched.

First of two potential 2016s

President Romney / VP Ryan 327

Former President Joe Biden (or maybe even Clinton, it really depends on how much blame she gets for watergate) / Generic D Running Mate 211

First of two potential 2020s

Senator Russ Feingold 269+

VP Paul Ryan 206(=/+)

Feingold will be the winner, as he will win at least one of the gray states. This is the situation on election before this happens. It is possible for him to win them all, not possible for the inverse.

Second of two potential 2016s

Sen. Bernie Sanders / Ticket Balancing Generic D 291

President Romney / VP Ryan 247

Second of two potential 2020s

President Bernie Sanders / VP 332

Charismatic but very nutty R / R running mate 206

The Republicans use anti-semitic dog whistles during the 2020 campaign, which hurts them dearly downballot in the NYC and Miami metros. Of course, another thing that hurts the Republicans is President Sanders' popularity and the success of his agenda. Obama's personal popularity has rebounded since his resignation but Democrats are moving away from him politically.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Realistic-ish electoral map made up of states I've been to (red) against states I haven't been to (blue & green). Tried to color the non-visited states with the party that could reasonably win them if not the Democrats.

[NHI]

Newsom/O'Rouke: 443 (51.7%)
Trump/Pence: 82 (39.9%)
Romney/Flake: 13 (7.4%)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

S-NY Bobby Kennedy/P-TN Gore Sr 274
cc-CA Nixon/cc-MD Agnew 219
P Wallace 45

[mianfei]

Newsom/O'Rouke: 443 (51.7%)
Trump/Pence: 82 (39.9%)
Romney/Flake: 13 (7.4%)

If there was an anti-Trump landslide or a split GOP, AK and even SC would be much more likely to flip than MO. Missouri is so much an Outer South state that it will likely exhibit similar trends to Appalachia.

[Lord Admirale]

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) / Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 285 EV (50.1%)
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) / Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) - 253 (47.8%)

[bagelman]

Trump 2016 in green vs. Bush 2004 in blue. Trump only barely wins!

ID is a difference of 20 votes, so is left gray. Key is <1% margin is 20%, <5% is 30% and up from there.