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Nyssus
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« Reply #1950 on: January 14, 2019, 05:24:57 AM »
« edited: January 14, 2019, 04:04:03 PM by Misteeer »

American presidential election of 2072
Tuesday, November 8, 2072


Map of Popular Vote Percentage by State
Red indicates Democratic, Blue indicates Republican, Green indicates Independent
Lighter colors denote smaller margins of victories, while darker colors denote larger margins




Candidates
And their popular vote percentages

Senator Alejandra Gutierrez (D-TX)/Governor Marianna Wilson (D-WA): 53.2%
Vice President Melissa Murdock (R-IL)/Senator Sam Scranton (R-MA): 38.7%
Mr. Dylan Nguyen (I-CA)/Ms. Aspen Simmons (I-CO): 6.9%
Dr. Stephen Yang (G-UT)/Mr. Nasheed Afrabi (G-MI): 0.6%
Ms. Maria Arroyo (L-FL)/Ms. Madeline Roche (L-VT): 0.4%
Others: 0.2%



Context
Of the 2072 presidential election

It was the end of an era.
         The "Northern Strategy" that the Republican Party had opted to adapt, instead of adapting to the changing political climate of the 21st century, was crumbling in front of the elephant's eyes. Yes, the Democrats had incorporated populism of sorts into their 2072 platform, but it delivered them several "blue wall" states that the GOP took for granted as guardians of their brief hegemony - Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
          A decade ago, this map would have been laughed at.
They said that Ally would never win. She was "too liberal", they said. Murdock was over-qualified for her position. She had the positions of vice president, senator, governor, and representative under her belt - what more could the "real Americans" of the Upper South and Lower Midwest ask for? But she wouldn't have it. She would go to great lengths to unearth all of their scandals, their weaknesses, and lay her plan for a "brighter America" for all on the table, bright as day, for all to see.
          And then, there was Dylan. The pseudo-technocratic businessman from the West Coast, who had dared to defy allies in his own party, dismissing them as hypocrites, two-faced corporate shills who gave not a care about the average, hard-working American. This won him California - the first time a third-party candidate had carried even a singular states in a century.
          Another decade, another realignment, it seemed. The Republicans would have to change their ways, or risk losing the entire Midwest and being locked out of the presidency for a generation. The Democrats, fond of their newfound strategy, were poised for another era of relative dominance.
          What happens next? Ask the history books of the future.
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WestVegeta
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« Reply #1951 on: January 16, 2019, 12:09:16 AM »

2008:
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH): 350 EVs
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN): 188 EVs


2012:
Pres. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Ted Strickland (D-OH): 326 EVs
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): 212 EVs

2016:
Fmr. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)/Attorney General Sally Yates (D-GA): 289 EVs
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI): 249 EVs

2020:
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)/Fmr. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV): 291 EVs
Pres. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)/Vice Pres. Sally Yates (D-GA): 247 EVs
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1952 on: January 16, 2019, 11:57:08 AM »



Try and guess what this map is.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1953 on: January 16, 2019, 12:31:11 PM »

Green: Voted for both parties between 2000-2016
Light red/blue: Voted for same party all five elections, but within 5% in one or more of those elections
Dark red/blue: Voted for same party by 5%+ margin all five times
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1954 on: January 16, 2019, 12:34:22 PM »

Green: Voted for both parties between 2000-2016
Light red/blue: Voted for same party all five elections, but within 5% in one or more of those elections
Dark red/blue: Voted for same party by 5%+ margin all five times

Close, its actually 6% for the threshold between light and dark, not 5%.

Otherwise, Arkansas, Georgia, and Washington would be dark.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1955 on: January 16, 2019, 05:19:06 PM »



The real map
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #1956 on: January 17, 2019, 10:07:58 AM »


Apportionment if only Clinton voters mattered. Trump still wins with 276 EVs.


Same thing but with Trump voters. Trump wins with 344 EVs.

And of course, third-parties:

Trump wins 285-253.



Comparison. Light colors are two-way-ties, colored for which party it doesn't break for. Gray is three-way tie. Three guesses as to why the third-parties overperformed in Utah (and to a lesser extent, New Mexico and Vermont).
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andjey
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« Reply #1957 on: January 18, 2019, 09:14:24 AM »
« Edited: January 18, 2019, 10:05:18 AM by АndriуValeriovich »

2000 Presidential election



V.P. Albert Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) 49,7% PV; 312 EV
Gov. George Bush (R-TX)/Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA) 46,4% PV; 226 EV


2004 Presidential election



Pres. Albert Gore (D-TN)/V.P. Bob Graham (D-FL) 50,1% PV; 326 EV
Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)/Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) 47,1% PV; 212 EV


2008 Presidential election



Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN)/Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 50,5% PV; 344 EV
Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) 46,1% PV; 194 EV

Continue little later
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andjey
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« Reply #1958 on: January 18, 2019, 10:36:07 AM »

2012 Presidential election

Popular President Phil Bredesen (D-TN) retires according to his age and health. His V.P. Barack Obama loses Democratic primary to progressive challenger Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders



Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Frm. Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) 48,2% PV; 270 EV
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) 48,5% PV; 268 EV


2016 Presidential election
[/b]



Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/V.P. Judd Gregg (R-NH) 48,5% PV; 285 EV
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) 48,4% PV; 253 EV


2020 Presidential election
[/b]



Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) 52,3% PV; 378 EV
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Frm. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) 45,1% PV; 160 EV
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #1959 on: January 18, 2019, 02:56:25 PM »

A 76 year old at the top of the ticket would be……historic, to say the least
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #1960 on: January 18, 2019, 04:40:30 PM »

A 76 year old at the top of the ticket would be……historic, to say the least

I was about to mention Parker's 81 year old running mate until I saw the words 'top'
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BigVic
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« Reply #1961 on: January 18, 2019, 09:51:17 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2019, 11:26:19 PM by BigVic »



Election 2020 with Trump as 3rd party nominee (Hillary POTUS)

Fmr. Gov John Kasich(R-OH)/Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 301 (44.6%)
Pres. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/VP. Tim Kaine (D-VA) 222 (45.4%)
Mr. Donald Trump (I/R-NY) Sen. Jeff Sessions (I/R-AL) 15 (6.0%)
Fmr. Gov. William Weld (L-MA)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (L-NY) 0 (1.3%)
Dr. Jill Stein (G-MA)/Mr. Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) 0 (2.1%)
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #1962 on: January 18, 2019, 10:21:22 PM »

2020

Donald John Trump and Michael Richard Pence (Republican) 270 electors, 46% votes
Robert Francis O'Rourke and Jeffrey Alan Merkley (Democratic) 268 electors, 50% votes
Others (Libertarian, Green, Constitution, &c.) 0 electors, 4% votes

2024

Kyrsten Lea Sinema and Gary Charles Peters (Democratic) 287 electors, 49% votes
Michael Richard Pence and Jason Chaffetz (Republican) 251 electors, 45% votes
Others (Libertarian, Green, Constitution, &c.) 0 electors, 6% votes

2028

Thomas Bryant Cotton and Corey Alan Stewart (Republican) 269 electors, 41% votes
Kyrsten Lea Sinema and Gary Charles Peters (Democratic) 255 electors, 43% votes
David Zuckerman and Ilhan Abdullahi Omar (Independent) 13 electors, 14% votes
Others (Libertarian, Green, Constitution, &c.) 0 electors, 2% votes
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #1963 on: January 22, 2019, 10:24:35 PM »

1992:

Andre Marrou/Nancy Lord (Libertarian): 43.6%, 419 EV
Bo Gritz/Cy Minett (Populist): 16.1%, 40 EV
Lenora Fulani/Maria Munoz (New Alliance): 11.1%, 17 EV
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers): 6.5%, 6 EV
John Hagelin/Mike Tompkins (Natural Law): 5.8%, 7 EV
Ron Daniels/Asiba Tupahache (Peace and Freedom): 4.2%, 0 EV
Lyndon LaRouche/James Bevel (Economic Recovery): 4.0%, 16 EV
James Warren/Estelle DeBates (Socialist Workers): 3.5%, 33 EV
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #1964 on: January 24, 2019, 10:09:54 AM »

1940
The 1940 election took place in the shadow of the late president Smedley Butler, who had presided over nearly eight tumultuous years of national reconstruction and the introduction of some aspects of socialist economic policy. While many on the left saw his presidency as the end of America's "Weimar" era spanning 1918-1932, many others viewed him as its apex. After all, expropriations had been violent and often backed with vigilante "Labor gangs"; in the South, the implementation of "fair voting" practices had resulted in multiple insurgencies as extra-state groups of all orientations lined up against each other. Nevertheless, in the hearts of many working Americans, Butler had left a lasting legacy that the administration's opponents would be hard-pressed to fight and the administration's supporters hard-pressed to live up to.

The inaugural American convention served to unite a litany of interests--primarily right-leaning--around opposition to involvement in the wars in Europe and Asia then raging. Despite strong support for Burton Wheeler, Joseph Kennedy, and Robert Taft, the convention chose celebrity and aviator Charles Lindbergh, the movement's godfather, as its nominee. For Vice President, in order to appeal to Eastern voters, former Republicans, and those who saw in Labor's machine the stalking horses of organized crime and corruption, crusading New York DA Thomas Dewey was selected.

Despite an energetic and charismatic campaign by the newly inaugurated president LaGuardia, he was unable to inspire the enthusiasm his predecessor had generated. Labor would come to blame its (later vindicated) "preparedness" campaign, centered around the idea of aiding the liberal and socialist states of Europe and Asia in their war against fascism and militarism. America was still then deeply isolationist, and despite several conservative voting disadvantages, the American Party took the day.


Mr. Charles Lindbergh (American-Michigan)/District Attorney Thomas Dewey (American-New York) 277 electoral votes, 48.9% of the popular vote
President Fiorello LaGuardia (Labor-New York)/Secretary of War George Dern (Labor-Utah) 254 electoral votes, 48.7% of the popular vote
Others: (Communist, Peace, States' Rights), 0 electoral votes, 2.4% of the popular vote
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #1965 on: January 24, 2019, 11:31:16 AM »

1992:

Andre Marrou/Nancy Lord (Libertarian): 43.6%, 419 EV
Bo Gritz/Cy Minett (Populist): 16.1%, 40 EV
Lenora Fulani/Maria Munoz (New Alliance): 11.1%, 17 EV
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers): 6.5%, 6 EV
John Hagelin/Mike Tompkins (Natural Law): 5.8%, 7 EV
Ron Daniels/Asiba Tupahache (Peace and Freedom): 4.2%, 0 EV
Lyndon LaRouche/James Bevel (Economic Recovery): 4.0%, 16 EV
James Warren/Estelle DeBates (Socialist Workers): 3.5%, 33 EV
what's the methodology here?
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #1966 on: January 24, 2019, 03:42:36 PM »

1992:

Andre Marrou/Nancy Lord (Libertarian): 43.6%, 419 EV
Bo Gritz/Cy Minett (Populist): 16.1%, 40 EV
Lenora Fulani/Maria Munoz (New Alliance): 11.1%, 17 EV
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers): 6.5%, 6 EV
John Hagelin/Mike Tompkins (Natural Law): 5.8%, 7 EV
Ron Daniels/Asiba Tupahache (Peace and Freedom): 4.2%, 0 EV
Lyndon LaRouche/James Bevel (Economic Recovery): 4.0%, 16 EV
James Warren/Estelle DeBates (Socialist Workers): 3.5%, 33 EV
what's the methodology here?
I just took out all the major party (Clinton/Dole/Perot votes) and calculated the %s of what was left.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #1967 on: January 25, 2019, 12:52:54 PM »

Similarly to MB's map, I took 2000 and got rid of the top vote getters (Gore, Bush, Nader)



Pat Buchanan/Ezola Foster (Reform): 41.47%, 306 EV
Harry Browne/Art Olivier (Libertarian): 35.51%, 224 EV
Howard Phillips/Curtis Frazier (Constitution): 9.05%, 8 EV
John Hagelin/Nat Goldhaber (Natural Law): 7.73%, 0 EV
All others: 4.73%, 0 EV
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #1968 on: January 25, 2019, 12:57:11 PM »

Similarly to MB's map, I took 2000 and got rid of the top vote getters (Gore, Bush, Nader)



Pat Buchanan/Ezola Foster (Reform): 41.47%, 306 EV
Harry Browne/Art Olivier (Libertarian): 35.51%, 224 EV
Howard Phillips/Curtis Frazier (Constitution): 9.05%, 8 EV
John Hagelin/Nat Goldhaber (Natural Law): 7.73%, 0 EV
All others: 4.73%, 0 EV

Unrelated to the content, that color scheme is beautiful. At most I would make the blue ever so slightly lighter or the yellow darker.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1969 on: January 25, 2019, 01:23:58 PM »

2010 Senate Elections with 9/18 point swing to Democrats:



Yellow means its a runoff.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1970 on: January 25, 2019, 01:33:19 PM »

2010 Senate Elections with 9/18 point swing to Democrats:



Yellow means its a runoff.
Also known as "2010 Senate Elections under president McCain"
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1971 on: January 25, 2019, 02:51:30 PM »

2010 Senate Elections with 9/18 point swing to Democrats:



Yellow means its a runoff.
Also known as "2010 Senate Elections under president McCain"

Honestly, it would probably be even worse for Republicans that that map has it if McCain was president.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #1972 on: January 25, 2019, 03:44:16 PM »



2004 third parties only:
Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo (Ind/Ref): 37.97%, 278 EV
Micheal Badnarik/Richard Campagna (Libertarian): 32.40%, 249 EV
Micheal Peroutka/Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 11.71%, 0 EV
David Cobb/Pat LaMarche (Green): 9.77%, 4 EV
Leonard Peltier/Janice Jordan (Peace and Freedom): 2.25% 0 EV
Walt Brown/Mary Alice Herbert (Socialist): 0.88% 0 EV
Roger Celero/Arrin Hawkins (Socialist Workers): 0.30% 0 EV
Thomas Harens/Jennifer Ryan (Christian Freedom): 0.19% 0 EV
Others: 4.13% 0 EV
None: 0.00%, 7 EV

Yes, seriously. OK had no third party votes from what I can tell.

and if you want it without Nader (sticking to eliminating the top 3)


(for some reason purple wouldn't work? Also NE-03 is Constitution as well)

Micheal Badnarik/Richard Campagna (Libertarian): 52.23%, 477 EV
Micheal Peroutka/Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 18.88%, 33 EV
David Cobb/Pat LaMarche (Green): 15.76%, 22 EV
Leonard Peltier/Janice Jordan (Peace and Freedom): 3.63% 0 EV
Walt Brown/Mary Alice Herbert (Socialist): 1.42% 0 EV
Roger Celero/Arrin Hawkins (Socialist Workers): 0.48% 0 EV
Thomas Harens/Jennifer Ryan (Christian Freedom): 0.31% 0 EV
Others: 6.66% 0 EV
None: 0.00%, 7 EV
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1973 on: January 25, 2019, 05:46:44 PM »

Revisiting 2012 in 2020

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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1974 on: January 25, 2019, 06:33:31 PM »

The colors are off.
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