2016:
Rubio/Haley: 411 EV, 55.4% PV
Clinton/Kaine: 127 EV, 43.3% PV2020:
(Democrats decide their problem was that they weren't liberal enough)
Rubio/Haley: 524 EV, 60.0% PVWarren/Jayapal: 14 EV, 38.2% PVMassachusetts isn't called for weeks, and for most of that period, it looked like Rubio managed a 50-state sweep.
2024:
The Democratic ticket runs as "fiscally conservative, but socially liberal" (Charlie Baker-type politics)
Nikki Haley/Scott Walker: ~330 EV, 52.9% PVYoung Unknown Democrat/Ron Wyden: ~208 EV, 46.5% PV2028:
The Democrats change strategy again, going with a socially conservative, economic populist model of two Democrats who became Republicans in 2017 and switched back in 2027 to run for president.
This election follows a period of depolarization and a new conservative order, so there are tons of swing states:
John Bel Edwards/Joe Manchin: ~291 EV, 49.2% PVNikki Haley/Scott Walker: ~247 EV, 49.3% PV