Post Random Maps Here 2.0.

[mianfei]

Following on from the locked "Post Random Maps Here" and its bisection of states by Wallace vote in 1968, I have done a map of the La Follette vote from 1924:

Green: States where Robert La Follette received more than 12% of the vote
Red: States where Robert La Follette received less than 12% of the vote

Unsurprisingly, La Follette played very poorly in the South, where very few of the lower classes could vote. He also fared poorly in the border states excepting Maryland (where he did best in urban Baltimore and German Western Maryland), and in the Northeast outside of anti-Prohibition precincts in the New York and Boston metropolitan areas. Closest state to the divide is Massachusetts at close to 12.50 percent: the next below it being Connecticut and Michigan at between 10.50 and 10.60 percent.

In addition, here is a similar map for John Anderson in 1980, using a threshold of 7 percent to bisect the states:

Green: States where John Anderson received more than 7% of the vote
Red: States where John Anderson received less than 7% of the vote

There are many similarities with the La Follette map, with the major difference being the Northeast, especially upper New England, which was La Follette's weakest region outside the antebellum slave states, but contained Anderson's strongest states. The most marginal states are Wyoming, Delaware and Kansas, where Anderson received between 6.80 percent and 7.00 percent, and on the other side Nebraska, Alaska, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada at between 7.00 percent and 7.12 percent.

[mianfei]

Making another thread after posting here already is spamming.

It was an accident – I realised I ought to have posted in this thread.

Having read The Emerging Republican Majority, although it does not address the issue directly that book does show why La Follette did so badly in upper New England. Simply put, the “Yankee” heartland was pro-“Establishment”, regardless of that establishment’s positions, and La Follette was not. In many of the classic “Yankee” counties, La Follette only got 2 or 3 percent.

[mianfei]

James Weaver in 1892 – bisection at 8.5 percent of popular vote:

Eugene Debs in 1912 – bisection at 5.5 percent of popular vote:

What’s striking about all “major” (over 5 percent national popular vote) third-party candidates up until 1976 is how poorly every one of them did in the Northeast (except for La Follette in anti-Prohibition parts of the “Metropolis”) – a trend abruptly changed by Anderson and Nader, who achieved their best results in Yankee regions (southern Vermont and Berkshires being the archetype) that Kevin Phillips described as “pro-establishment”.

[mianfei]

1860 if Douglas won his home state of Illinois

Abraham Lincoln - 158 electoral votes / 37.32 percent popular vote
John Breckenridge - 75 electoral votes / 18.1 percent popular vote
John Bell - 39 electoral votes / 12.61 percent popular vote
Stephen Douglas - 31 electoral votes / 31.96 percent popular vote

1860 if Breckinridge won his home state of Kentucky:

• Abraham Lincoln: 123 electoral votes/35 percent popular vote
• John Breckinridge: 118 electoral votes/23 percent popular vote
• Stephen Douglas: 62 electoral votes/33 percent popular vote
• John Bell: 0 electoral votes/8 percent popular vote

This would be a tough scenario. Most likely Douglas would have become elected by the House of Representatives as a compromise president – but he died in 1861, leaving Herschel Johnson as President for the long haul. Would abolitionist fervour have faded down and a more peaceful solution to the spread of slavery have developed?

[mianfei]

1988 if Dukakis won Bentsen’s home state of Texas:

• Dukakis/Bentsen (Democratic): 52.05 percent, 357 EV
• Bush/Quayle (Republican): 46.95 percent, 181 EV

[mianfei]

1984 if Mondale won Geraldine Ferraro’s home state of New York:

• Reagan/Bush senior (Republican): 54.7 percent, 429 EV
• Mondale/Ferraro (Democratic): 44.5 percent, 109 EV

[mianfei]

1972 if McGovern won Sargent Shriver’s home state of Maryland:

• McGovern/Shriver (Democratic): 49.5 percent, 285 EV
• Nixon/Agnew (Republican): 48.7 percent, 253 EV

[mianfei]

1964 if Goldwater won William Miller’s home state of New York:

• Barry Goldwater/William E. Miller (Republican): 58.2 percent, 509 EV
• Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey (Democratic): 42.3 percent, 29 EV

[mianfei]

1960 if Nixon won Henry Cabot Lodge’s home state of Massachusetts:

• Richard Nixon/Henry Cabot Lodge junior (Republican): 60.1 percent, 492 EV
• Unpledged Electors (Dixiecrat): 1.4 percent, 29 EV
• John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat): 38.5 percent 16 EV

[mianfei]

1956 if Stevenson won Estes Kefauver’s home state of Tennessee:

• Dwight D. Eisenhower/Richard M. Nixon (Republican): 57.0 percent, 446 EV
• Adlai Stevenson II/Estes Kefauver (Democratic): 42.3 percent, 85 EV

[mianfei]

1948 if Dewey won Earl Warren’s home state of California:

• Harry S. Truman/Alben Barkley (Democratic): 49.3 percent, 254 EV
• Thomas E. Dewey/Earl Warren (Republican): 45.3 percent, 239 EV
• J. Strom Thurmond/Fielding Lewis Wright: 2.4 percent, 38 EV

Election goes into the House of Representatives.

[mianfei]

1940 if Roosevelt won Henry Wallace’s home state of Iowa:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Henry Agard Wallace (Democratic): 57.0 percent, 504 EV
• Wendell Lewis Willkie/Charles A. McNary (Republican): 42.4 percent, 27 EV

1940 if Willkie won McNary’s home state of Oregon:

• Wendell Lewis Willkie/Charles A. McNary (Republican): 49.0 percent, 311 EV
• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/Henry Agard Wallace (Democratic): 50.4 percent, 220 EV

[mianfei]

1936 if Landon won Frank Knox’s home state of Illinois:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/John Nance Garner (Democratic): 51.8 percent, 358 EV
• Alfred Mossman Landon/Frank Knox (Republican): 45.5 percent, 173 EV

[mianfei]

1932 if Hoover won Charles Curtis’ home state of Kansas:

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt/John Nance Garner: 53.2 percent, 385 EV
• Herbert Clark Hoover/Charles Curtis: 43.9 percent, 146 EV

[mianfei]

1924 if Davis won Charles Bryan’s home state of Nebraska:

• John Calvin Coolidge/Charles Dawes (Republican): 44.9 percent, 282 EV
• John William Davis/Charles Bryan (Democratic): 38.0 percent, 212 EV
• Robert Marion La Follette/Burton K. Wheeler (Progressive): 16.6 percent, 37 EV

[mianfei]

1920 if Cox won Franklin Roosevelt’s home state of New York:

• James Middleton Cox/Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Democratic): 53.0%, 346 EV
• Warren Gamail Harding/John Calvin Coolidge (Republican): 42.3%, 185 EV

[mianfei]

Newsom/O'Rouke: 443 (51.7%)
Trump/Pence: 82 (39.9%)
Romney/Flake: 13 (7.4%)

If there was an anti-Trump landslide or a split GOP, AK and even SC would be much more likely to flip than MO. Missouri is so much an Outer South state that it will likely exhibit similar trends to Appalachia.