UK General Election, June 8th 2017
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:41:48 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK General Election, June 8th 2017
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 76
Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207450 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: April 22, 2017, 04:18:19 PM »

You're assuming they campaign incompetently and Labour do competent. Labour at present can't do competent.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: April 22, 2017, 04:19:35 PM »

The poll tax was 27 years ago. There are now voters who don't even remember the invasion of Iraq...

It was, but it cemented the idea of the nasty uncaring party and the fact that the poll tax was applied in Scotland first, made the tories deeply unpopular among scots.

Many Scottish tories tried to de-toxify the party image but failed, like David McLetchie
 and Annabel Goldie which was a decent women.


What about Ruth Davidson?
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: April 22, 2017, 04:29:16 PM »

The poll tax was 27 years ago. There are now voters who don't even remember the invasion of Iraq...

It was, but it cemented the idea of the nasty uncaring party and the fact that the poll tax was applied in Scotland first, made the tories deeply unpopular among scots.

Many Scottish tories tried to de-toxify the party image but failed, like David McLetchie
 and Annabel Goldie which was a decent women.


What about Ruth Davidson?

Ruth have been impressive, i wouldn't mind voting for a tory like her.
For god sake, she's more Liberal then Tim Farron in LGBT rights........
That's probably because she is LGBT.

I don't think she has been all that impressive - she came out in support of the rape clause, ffs. She wouldn't be doing anywhere near as good as she is without the independence issue.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: April 22, 2017, 04:52:10 PM »

ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: April 22, 2017, 04:54:02 PM »

ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.
Has anyone got the "polling errors" for each pollster from the 2015 election and the 2016 referendum?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: April 22, 2017, 04:55:33 PM »

ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.
Has anyone got the "polling errors" for each pollster from the 2015 election and the 2016 referendum?

You would also want to throw the 2010 GE (which was another fiasco) into the mix.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: April 22, 2017, 04:58:14 PM »

Anyway there's a distinct possibility that the massive Tory figures (which are, we must note, not shown by everyone) may be like the LibDem surge in 2010 (or the smaller movement to Labour in 2015 even) in which real enthusiasm was picked up as real support (which it wasn't). There are also numerous instances of this happening in elections before then. But it's hard to discuss this sort of thing rationally without sounding like someone in denial, which is a comment in itself.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: April 22, 2017, 05:03:52 PM »

"Remember a little thing called margin of error", indeed. But I don't think it is unrealistic for May to get 44% of the vote; higher than Thatcher or Major ever got.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: April 22, 2017, 05:05:35 PM »

It is absolutely a possibility, yes.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: April 22, 2017, 05:08:53 PM »

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

Well, back in 1997 and 2001 there were polls near the election with LAB leads nearly 30 points.  They won by 12.5 and 9 respectively.  All things equal even if the CON lead is that large all that would mean is CON turnout would be lower on election day and the scale of victory significantly lower than the 25 point lead the poll infer.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: April 22, 2017, 05:12:54 PM »

IF CON gets above 45% of the vote AND turnout is reasonably high (close to 2015 turnout rates) then May might beat the 1992 Major's CON total record vote of 14.1 million.  It is interesting that before 1992 the record in terms of total vote by party was 1951 Attlee's LAB losing effort with a total vote of 13.95 million.

The fact the total vote record is so hard to beat speaks to the overall decline of turnout in UK elections as well as the fomentation of the vote share since the 1950s.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: April 22, 2017, 05:20:26 PM »

Most polls seems to have CON+UKIP at 53-55 and LAB+LIB at 35-37.  There seems to significant variance between CON and UKIP on the one hand and between LAB and LIB on the other had.  But the each pair seem to poll around the same amount.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: April 22, 2017, 06:02:48 PM »

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: April 22, 2017, 06:06:03 PM »

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%

FFS the UK is turning into Canada with these huge swings.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: April 22, 2017, 06:08:42 PM »

Who exactly is still voting Labour in Scotland?
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: April 22, 2017, 06:14:53 PM »

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

The PSC of Catalonia is probably the better comparison.
Logged
Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,235
Georgia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: April 22, 2017, 06:22:29 PM »

So is this like when the Democrats suddenly collapsed in West Virginia recently?
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: April 22, 2017, 06:26:40 PM »

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

The PSC of Catalonia is probably the better comparison.
In terms of the collapse, the old Union Nationale in Quebec (in the 60s/70s) is probably a good comparison. Went from 41% of the vote to 5% in seven years - losing all their seats in the process - after finding themselves squeezed by the independence party, Parti Québécois, and the, main federalist party, Liberals. The Union Nationale lost most of their support to the PQ as well, similar to Labour losing most of their support to the SNP.

(I recognise that the Union Nationale were closer to the Conservatives in terms of policy)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: April 22, 2017, 07:04:40 PM »

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%

This poll might be off but does fit into my thinking about all this talk about LIB revival in Scotland.  I always figured that the idea of LIB making gains in Scotland was most likely fiction.  If LIB were to go after the Remain vote it seems that vote should go SNP, if anything to stop CON.  If LIB were to go after the Unionist vote then that same vote most likely voted for Brexit and would go CON anyway.  I always figured that it will be a SNP vs CON battle this time in Scotland even if it will be an uneven battle.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,697
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: April 23, 2017, 12:48:59 AM »

Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP 49%
CON 29%
LAB 15%
LD 5%
OTHER 2%
(YouGov  (19/4/17))

Westminster voting intention (Scotland subsample of 174)
SNP: 44%
CON: 28%
LAB: 10%
LD: 6%
OTHER: 3%
(ComRes / 19 - 20 April)

Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP: 43%
CON: 32%
LAB: 14%
LD: 8%
OTHER: 3%
(Opinium/Observer / 19 - 20 Apr)

5 years ago i would've thought its madness for the tories to poll over 20% in Scotland,

Ive always thought there are a lot of centre right voters in Scotland but wont vote tory after the poll tax.

Fair play to Ruth Davidson,

As a note, Scotland's "Poll Tax" is completely different from America's (now outlawed) poll taxes and wouldn't be called anything close to a poll tax here (it has nothing to do with paying a tax to vote).
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,506


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: April 23, 2017, 03:05:18 AM »

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%

This poll might be off but does fit into my thinking about all this talk about LIB revival in Scotland.  I always figured that the idea of LIB making gains in Scotland was most likely fiction.  If LIB were to go after the Remain vote it seems that vote should go SNP, if anything to stop CON.  If LIB were to go after the Unionist vote then that same vote most likely voted for Brexit and would go CON anyway.  I always figured that it will be a SNP vs CON battle this time in Scotland even if it will be an uneven battle.
I wonder if they'll finally lose Orkney and Shetland
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: April 23, 2017, 03:10:59 AM »

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%

This poll might be off but does fit into my thinking about all this talk about LIB revival in Scotland.  I always figured that the idea of LIB making gains in Scotland was most likely fiction.  If LIB were to go after the Remain vote it seems that vote should go SNP, if anything to stop CON.  If LIB were to go after the Unionist vote then that same vote most likely voted for Brexit and would go CON anyway.  I always figured that it will be a SNP vs CON battle this time in Scotland even if it will be an uneven battle.

I don't know about being "most likely fiction" -- Orkney and Shetland looks nailed-on, Lib Dems have another very likely pickup in East Dunbartonshire, and are probably likelier than not to gain Edinburgh West and Fife North East (though at Conservatives over 30 Scotland-wide, both of those seats become likelier to go Conservative than Lib Dem).

They're not going back to pre-2015 numbers anywhere, but it looks like there'll be small sustained gains in every part of the country.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,817
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: April 23, 2017, 05:16:38 AM »

Interesting developments on Marr and other sunday shows this morning.

Corbyn questioned over pressing the nuclear button, and drone strikes, and gave well the same answer he's been giving for the last 2 years. He ignited the old labour war over Trident by saying it may not be in the manifesto; every 2-3 months we seem to have this battle, and LOTO then remembers that not only is it policy from conference, but virtually the entire Labour family supports it.

Paul Nutall says he may not stand in the election- which is hilarious.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,308
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: April 23, 2017, 05:20:57 AM »

Nuttall also wants to ban the burka for security reasons... I've never heard of a woman in one robbing a bank.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: April 23, 2017, 05:50:51 AM »

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

The PSC of Catalonia is probably the better comparison.
Yup, seems like an apt comparison!

They used to rule the region on general elections (not regional ones though, nationalists have ruled Catalonia except for a short while between 2003 and 2011), with Catalonia going PSOE by huge margins. Nowadays they are hovering around 10-15% of the vote iirc, but are still the 3rd largest party (though they might drop to 4th soon). Then again, PSOE is nationally around 22%, though they actually hold more governors than PP! (8 vs 7 iirc)

Also, PSC's stance on independence is fairly clear. They don't want independence, won't allow a referendum but will fight for a federal Spain where Catalonia is comfortable and fits in. However the exact stance will depend on who wins the primary nationally. Diaz will move towards more anti-independence while Sánchez is more pro-independence, claiming Spain is a nation of nations, etc
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 76  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 11 queries.