UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #875 on: May 15, 2017, 04:45:38 PM »

Corbyn appoints anti-Israel activist as campaign chief

Andrew Murray is a founder and former chair of Stop the War, a notoriously anti-Israel organisation

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/corbyn-appoints-anti-israel-activist-andrew-murray-as-campaign-chief-1.438501

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-drafts-in-andrew-murray-to-head-2017-general-election-campaign-team-unite-stop-the-war-chair_uk_5918c0ade4b0031e737e7b6d

Labour gonna have a tough time defending seats in north London, the party already have an anti-Semitic problem, no thanks to ken livingstone



Andrew Murray also apologised for Stalin and Defended North Korea



https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=232&v=QXq-NcbHgYM

"Communism still represents, in my view, a society worth working towards". Andrew Murray, 11 December, 2015.


I'm sill baffled, why the hell would Corbyn appoint this man out of all people ....
Because Corbyn isn't a social democrat. He's barely a democratic socialist. He is hard left, and now that his faction is finally in charge of the party he's milking it for all it's worth.

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.
Ultimately, this was a winnable election that Labour lost because its membership insisted on having the least popular, least likeable, least qualified and most baggage-laden leader in modern political history.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #876 on: May 15, 2017, 05:05:28 PM »

Seems reasonable and realistic, although lolPlaid. Why do they even exist if they can't do well when Labour is floundering? Might as well be Mebyon Kernow. Although the locals told a somewhat different story in Wales, so we'll see.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #877 on: May 15, 2017, 05:08:21 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2017, 05:18:32 PM by tack50 »

My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 47 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #878 on: May 15, 2017, 05:13:14 PM »

My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 54 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.

Surely "best case" for the Conservatives involves at least 5-8 seats in Scotland, given polling? Places like Perth and North Perthshire, Ochil and South Perthshire, Stirling and Edinburgh South West are very winnable for the Conservatives if they are polling 30% in Scotland.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #879 on: May 15, 2017, 05:13:29 PM »

Beware! These are collated regional breakdowns - and so of actually pretty limited worth - apart from the regions (London, Scotland, Wales) where YouGov have been commissioned to do proper polls (in these cases they've justed added in the most recent finding from each). Whatever one can say about YouGov's record as a pollster, they are damn fine at PR.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #880 on: May 15, 2017, 05:18:11 PM »

My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 54 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.

Surely "best case" for the Conservatives involves at least 5-8 seats in Scotland, given polling? Places like Perth and North Perthshire, Ochil and South Perthshire, Stirling and Edinburgh South West are very winnable for the Conservatives if they are polling 30% in Scotland.

Yeah, I just applied an even swing and pasted the numbers, but for some reason that didn't work for the SNP. I totally agree with you though, 8 seats as a maximum seems right.
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thumb21
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« Reply #881 on: May 15, 2017, 05:28:01 PM »

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

Blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems is just cheap. It's definitely true that he and his baggage are extremely bad for Labour. But, you can't pretend that this is not a systemic issue that Labour is facing. If it was any other major Labour politician as the leader, they would also be doing very badly.
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« Reply #882 on: May 15, 2017, 08:24:00 PM »

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

Blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems is just cheap. It's definitely true that he and his baggage are extremely bad for Labour. But, you can't pretend that this is not a systemic issue that Labour is facing. If it was any other major Labour politician as the leader, they would also be doing very badly.

The Tories were in similar amount of trouble in the early 2000s but they didnt tank the party to a worse level after John Major while Corbyn is tanking them to a worse level after Blair/Brown.
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« Reply #883 on: May 15, 2017, 09:50:38 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2017, 10:24:03 PM by Shadows »

What happened when Jeremy Corbyn questioned Theresa May during a Facebook Live?


Jeremy Corbyn asked: "Hi Theresa May, as Prime Minister you have served your elite friends by giving them tax cuts while wages have stagnated, house-building is at its lowest since the 1920s, there are 20,000 fewer police on our streets since 2010 and the NHS is in crisis. "Do you not think the British people deserve to see us debate, live and on TV?"

Theresa May replied: "What I think is more important is that I and he take questions directly from the voters."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39928536/what-happened-when-jeremy-corbyn-questioned-theresa-may-during-a-facebook-live


THERESA May was lambasted by a disabled voter who claimed Tory benefit cuts had left her trying to live on £100 a month.


“The fat cats keep all the money and us lot get nothing.” May tried to interject but Mohan persisted: “Do you know what I want? I want my disability living allowance to come back. Not have PIPs and get nothing. I can’t live on £100 a month. They just took it all away from me.”

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15287591.May_confronted_by_woman_forced_to_survive_on___100_a_month_after_cuts_to_disability_support/
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Shadows
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« Reply #884 on: May 15, 2017, 10:08:59 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2017, 10:23:23 PM by Shadows »

Election 2017: Student voter registration rockets with most vowing to back Jeremy Corbyn's Labour


Students are bucking the national trend by continuing to reject Theresa May – who is the least popular party leader, with a rating of minus 33 per cent in one survey. Support for the Conservatives stands at 17 per cent in the poll conducted by the UNiDAYS student network and at 18 per cent with the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi). Significantly, 78 per cent of students said they planned to vote, which would be a higher turnout than at the election two years ago (69 per cent), but lower than in the Brexit referendum (87 per cent).

Ms May appears to have won over more male students (25 per cent) than she has managed with young females (just 11 per cent). “An overall majority of students who have made up their mind support Jeremy Corbyn."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-students-turn-out-jeremy-corbyn-labour-liberal-democrats-nick-clegg-tuition-fees-a7717856.html


Here’s what happened when Jeremy Corbyn took over Hyde Park


Jeremy Corbyn addressed a huge crowd of around 3,000 students outside Brudenell Social Club this afternoon. The event was originally supposed to take place inside of Brudenell, but after The Tab broke the story that he was visiting, thousands of students flocked to get a glimpse of the Labour leader, and true to the spirit of Labour’s campaign slogan – ‘For the many, not the few’ – the event was held in the street. Despite arriving nearly an hour late, the crowd stayed put, climbing fences, trees and walls to hear him address the crowd. When the Labour campaign bus eventually arrived, the crowd erupted into loud cheers and chants of ‘Corbyn, Corbyn!’

https://thetab.com/uk/leeds/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-hyde-park-today-32528


Labour begins to poll higher under Jeremy Corbyn than it did under Ed Miliband


Two new polls suggest Labour has climbed to 32 per cent – still significantly behind the Conservatives but higher than the 30.4 per cent the party received at the 2015 election. The narrowing of the gap will come as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn and his team after a raft of policy announcements that, polls suggest, were popular with the public.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-corbyn-poll-latest-higher-ed-miliband-election-2017-news-a7737511.html


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EnglishPete
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« Reply #885 on: May 16, 2017, 01:32:07 AM »

Article from Mike Smithson who runs the 'Political Betting' website (one of the leading psephology websites in the UK)

Quote "

Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane
Canvassing in S London Labour seat and every 2nd house it was Jeremy. Never heard such hostility in 4 decades.

Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.

He had been working in the Dagenham and Rainham parliamentary constituency mostly focussing former council estates which at past elections have been pretty solid for Labour. What was striking, he told me, was the massive negative reaction to Jeremy Corbyn that he was getting on the doorstep and how quite a few of those being canvassed wanted to use the conversation to vent the anger with the Labour leader.

The reaction was in some contrast to the middle class areas of the constituency where there was a move to the Conservatives but not nothing like on the scale as on the former council estates.

What is interesting is that this is also the reaction that many Labour canvassers are finding. The Tweet above from the former Labour MP and ex-BBC colleague of mine, Denis MacShane, is typical.

The Lib Dems I know who been out in target seats are also experiencing a lot of hostility towards to the man who has convincingly won two LAB leadership elections.

This is of course all reflected in the polls. Upto GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted but now large swathes of it have disappeared.

From what I can gather everything that was predicted about Corbyn’s leadership in a general election is actually happening. He is proving a massive negative and his supporters are left trying to find even more excuses. " End Quote

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-labours-election-gift-to-mrs-may-and-the-tories/

[Note for US readers "Council Estate" = Public Housing Neighborhood
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Gustaf
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« Reply #886 on: May 16, 2017, 03:07:53 AM »

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.
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Shadows
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« Reply #887 on: May 16, 2017, 05:19:59 AM »


"Fake News" !  - We are hearing all sorts of trash & they will be trash till the manifesto & an analysis comes out. BBC is reporting increase is taxes above 330K & not 80K, there's a dozen different reports !

The manifesto with details will be launched today & after that there will be analysis. Before that everything is just trash tabloid !
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Blair
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« Reply #888 on: May 16, 2017, 05:23:35 AM »

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.

This is a complete guess, but there was between 1992-2005 a fair amount of centre left voters who would vote Liberal Democrat in the South east and South West (in seats like Bath) to keep the tories out- and I know 1997 was said to see a surge in this. However after the coalition you saw a lot of these types of voters voting for Labour (I haven't got the numbers but there was a really big amount of Lib Dems 2010-Labour 2015 voters) which swung  about 10 seats.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #889 on: May 16, 2017, 05:28:56 AM »

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.

This is a complete guess, but there was between 1992-2005 a fair amount of centre left voters who would vote Liberal Democrat in the South east and South West (in seats like Bath) to keep the tories out- and I know 1997 was said to see a surge in this. However after the coalition you saw a lot of these types of voters voting for Labour (I haven't got the numbers but there was a really big amount of Lib Dems 2010-Labour 2015 voters) which swung  about 10 seats.


Right, I mean, it's obvious that say Labour voters who vote tactically in a Lib-Con marginal will go Lib. But I've seen conflicting statements on how Lib voters in Con-Lab marginals swing and it's also unclear to me how Scotland works. Is Independence or economics most salient? Would a Labour or Lib Dem voter in a Con-SNP marginal go Tory or SNP?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #890 on: May 16, 2017, 05:35:43 AM »

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.

This is a complete guess, but there was between 1992-2005 a fair amount of centre left voters who would vote Liberal Democrat in the South east and South West (in seats like Bath) to keep the tories out- and I know 1997 was said to see a surge in this. However after the coalition you saw a lot of these types of voters voting for Labour (I haven't got the numbers but there was a really big amount of Lib Dems 2010-Labour 2015 voters) which swung  about 10 seats.


Right, I mean, it's obvious that say Labour voters who vote tactically in a Lib-Con marginal will go Lib. But I've seen conflicting statements on how Lib voters in Con-Lab marginals swing and it's also unclear to me how Scotland works. Is Independence or economics most salient? Would a Labour or Lib Dem voter in a Con-SNP marginal go Tory or SNP?

Judging by the recent polls in Scotland, it would seem that there has been a consolidation of unionist voters tactically supporting the Tories in the last year or so. Whereas before, it was all over the place. So I guess Lib Dem or Labour unionists will be inclined to vote Tory tactically.

I have a feeling that hardly anybody is doing any voting based on economics at the moment, identity is trumping everything.
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afleitch
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« Reply #891 on: May 16, 2017, 05:50:49 AM »

There hasn't been a Scotland wide poll all month so far. YouGov's regional poll was their old one. I think people are enjoying the idea of what Scotland is going to do, rather than actually poll it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #892 on: May 16, 2017, 06:13:10 AM »

Panelbase Poll

CON           47 (-1)
LAB            33 (+2)
LIB              7 (-1)
UKIP            5 (nc)

Same trend. LAB up and LIB down.
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« Reply #893 on: May 16, 2017, 06:52:20 AM »

regarding Lab high numbers, it is important to mention that the multi-party politics is now pretty much over as Ukip is dead and the Liberals are back to their pre 80's ratings
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« Reply #894 on: May 16, 2017, 08:33:37 AM »

the Liberals are back to their pre 80's ratings

Pre-70s really. Thorpe (yes, that guy) led them to around a fifth of the vote in both of the 1974 elections.
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« Reply #895 on: May 16, 2017, 10:39:00 AM »

Labour dropped it's full manifesto today and it's littttt.

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017
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jaichind
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« Reply #896 on: May 16, 2017, 12:23:02 PM »

Kantar poll

CON    47 (+3)
LAB    29 (+1)
LIB      8  (-3)
UKIP    6 (-2)

Looks like herding toward the other polls
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« Reply #897 on: May 16, 2017, 12:37:34 PM »

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

Blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems is just cheap. It's definitely true that he and his baggage are extremely bad for Labour. But, you can't pretend that this is not a systemic issue that Labour is facing. If it was any other major Labour politician as the leader, they would also be doing very badly.

The Tories were in similar amount of trouble in the early 2000s but they didnt tank the party to a worse level after John Major while Corbyn is tanking them to a worse level after Blair/Brown.

Indeed, this is true. However, the idea that Labour could have won if it wasn't Corbyn, as some are saying, is simply false.
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« Reply #898 on: May 16, 2017, 12:43:21 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2017, 12:45:01 PM by Barnes »

Odd that the Other Place doesn't even get a passing shot in this manifesto. Which is the first time that's happened since 1987.

 Whatever shall we do without our diresory "Senate of the Regions"?!
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« Reply #899 on: May 16, 2017, 01:54:26 PM »

Labour did the right thing by putting any old pish in their manifesto. Get's it out of their system.
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