UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207449 times)
Shadows
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« Reply #950 on: May 20, 2017, 03:44:49 AM »

My results -


1. SNP                   78% 
2. Plaid Cymru       77%
3. Labour              74%
4. Green                73%
5. Lib-Dem            69%
6. Conservative      43%
7. UKIP                 39%
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #951 on: May 20, 2017, 04:32:35 AM »

For what its worth, I got:

86% SNP (who I'm rather reluctantly voting for)
84% Plaid
82% Labour
80% Greens (my party, not standing in my seat)
76% Shinners
68% Libs
40% DUP
38% for the Dead Nazi Party
31% Scum
31% UKIP

Also this thing calls me a "left-wing authoritarian" which makes very little sense to me really.  The "where voters side with you!" thing is also a total joke, both since its broken down by postal areas (?), and because of the fact that its self-selecting its silly - apparently I agree most with people in Glasgow and Dumfries and Galloway which, eh, are totally different politically...
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Lachi
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« Reply #952 on: May 20, 2017, 05:49:44 AM »

Theresa May wants to create new internet that would be controlled & regulated by government

This is actually terrifying
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #953 on: May 20, 2017, 07:00:33 AM »

why wasn't labour able to find someone with macron's charisma?

it must be possible to mix far-leftism with someone not connected to the 70ies.

may is trying to become merkel and govern from the PURITAN center, which could backfire if someone was able to make a good case.

corbyn is blocking a good chance, even if he fires up partisans.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #954 on: May 20, 2017, 08:02:55 AM »

Labour getting 33% is no good if the Tories get 45%+.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #955 on: May 20, 2017, 08:40:29 AM »

So who exactly is voting Labour this time who didn't last time?

It can't just be Green switchers, because they must surely be massively outnumbered by the millions of working class voters allegedly defecting to the Tories.

Of course, the polls could be wrong again, or it could be the gain in vote share is driven mostly by a very probable decline in turnout.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #956 on: May 20, 2017, 08:45:13 AM »

Good question. Are the polls being skewed by the Corbyn fan club on the online panels?
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vileplume
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« Reply #957 on: May 20, 2017, 08:49:20 AM »

So who exactly is voting Labour this time who didn't last time?

It can't just be Green switchers, because they must surely be massively outnumbered by the millions of working class voters allegedly defecting to the Tories.

Of course, the polls could be wrong again, or it could be the gain in vote share is driven mostly by a very probable decline in turnout.

ORB usually shows higher Labour vote shares than other pollsters so 34% is probably on the high side. But while UKIP's collapse primarily helps the Tories it probably benefits Labour's vote share a bit too (probably not seats though). This along with a straight Green to Labour switching, the Lib Dems completely tanking and there only being a small to modest number of straight Labour to Tory switchers means that a Labour vote share in the low 30s is now very possible.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #958 on: May 20, 2017, 08:51:54 AM »

i know this is premature and labour's gains could be invisible in terms of seats but.....can we guess, which regions could be modestly swinging pro-labour?
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vileplume
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« Reply #959 on: May 20, 2017, 08:59:35 AM »

i know this is premature and labour's gains could be invisible in terms of seats but.....can we guess, which regions could be modestly swinging pro-labour?

Doubt there are any as Labour at 34% is probably too high. London, South East, South West are probably showing the smallest Tory swings as in London's case there is a low UKIP vote and in the other two the Tories can't go much higher than they already are and Labour can't go much lower.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #960 on: May 20, 2017, 09:17:07 AM »

in the conservative media the "dementia tax" is talked about a lot but i guess that's not soooo important inside of the UK.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #961 on: May 20, 2017, 10:14:47 AM »

In terms of students, many of them will likely be back home by polling day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #962 on: May 20, 2017, 11:13:34 AM »

Opinium/Observer poll

CON 46 (-1)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB    8 (-)
UKIP  5 (-)
SNP   5 (-)
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #963 on: May 20, 2017, 01:46:24 PM »

How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #964 on: May 20, 2017, 01:51:38 PM »

The first place that'd swing to Labour is London; for a variety of reasons (Brexit might play a role, smaller UKIP vote plus I'd imagine that the sort of Tory party that May is leading isn't very popular in London) but that wouldn't swing the election.

If Labour loses seats Corbyn will go; although a gain in vote share probably would embolden the left in the party - at least, more than a 1983-esque share would.
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thumb21
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« Reply #965 on: May 20, 2017, 02:39:20 PM »

How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

Yeah, but many of those UKIP voters were Labour voters before.

Also, Miliband improved on Labour's 2010 PV performance but still resigned.
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Shadows
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« Reply #966 on: May 20, 2017, 03:10:47 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 03:19:29 PM by Shadows »

How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

Yeah, but many of those UKIP voters were Labour voters before.

Also, Miliband improved on Labour's 2010 PV performance but still resigned.

Miliband improved by only 1% (from a recent historic low of 29%) & lost 29 seats! If he had improved by 4/5% or more even with a loss of couple of seats, he would probably have a case of arguing to stay on. If Labour draws 31 or 32%, Corbyn probably has to go !

Blair 43% 1997, Blair 40.7% 2001, Blair 35% 2005, Brown 29% 2010, Miliband 30.4% 2015!

If Corbyn atleast gets 36/37% of the votes (in which case Tories will be at 41/42 odd) amidst all this May-momentum & hostility towards him, he would probably stay on, who knows ! But more Labour votes could flip many seats & if the Tories go near 40, there's chances of a Lib Dem-Labour-SNP coalition !

BTW Miliband had 5 full years as a leader while Corbyn barely has a year or so. So with Miliband you could argue he had time, an incumbent Prime Minister who was there for long & he still failed.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #967 on: May 20, 2017, 04:05:16 PM »

This might be more like 1987; Corbyn could get 33% of the vote, but with May at 45-46%, you'd still be looking at a near 100 majority.

Kinnock stayed on after 1987 after all...
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parochial boy
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« Reply #968 on: May 20, 2017, 04:21:58 PM »

Has anyone posted this?

Yougov

CON 44%(-1)
LAB 35%(+3)
LDEM 9%(+1)
UKIP 3%(-3)

OK, something is definitely going on with the Labour vote
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #969 on: May 20, 2017, 04:35:12 PM »

Corbynmentum?
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Gary J
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« Reply #970 on: May 20, 2017, 04:45:18 PM »

Corbyn is a very implausible coalition Prime Minister. He cannot agree with the majority of his own MPs, let alone those from other parties.

I think if Corbyn got the chance to form a government, he would produce a Labour minority administration. He would do no deals with anyone and just dare the opposition parties to combine and vote him out.

This is not a formula for a very productive period of government, but like Ramsay MacDonald in 1923 it might be thought that the fact of a left wing government for a few months would make future ones more likely.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #971 on: May 20, 2017, 04:47:23 PM »


Bad polling? Labour was polling at 35% before the election in 2015 and look what happened there.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #972 on: May 20, 2017, 05:09:33 PM »

It occurs to me that perhaps the Conservative manifesto was not entirely well judged in all respects.
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thumb21
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« Reply #973 on: May 20, 2017, 05:32:45 PM »

How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

Yeah, but many of those UKIP voters were Labour voters before.

Also, Miliband improved on Labour's 2010 PV performance but still resigned.

Miliband improved by only 1% (from a recent historic low of 29%) & lost 29 seats! If he had improved by 4/5% or more even with a loss of couple of seats, he would probably have a case of arguing to stay on. If Labour draws 31 or 32%, Corbyn probably has to go !

Blair 43% 1997, Blair 40.7% 2001, Blair 35% 2005, Brown 29% 2010, Miliband 30.4% 2015!

If Corbyn atleast gets 36/37% of the votes (in which case Tories will be at 41/42 odd) amidst all this May-momentum & hostility towards him, he would probably stay on, who knows ! But more Labour votes could flip many seats & if the Tories go near 40, there's chances of a Lib Dem-Labour-SNP coalition !

BTW Miliband had 5 full years as a leader while Corbyn barely has a year or so. So with Miliband you could argue he had time, an incumbent Prime Minister who was there for long & he still failed.


There is a crucial factor here though. If the polls gets as close as 37 - 41, it's likely that the SNP factors will save the Conservatives like in 2015. And even if a Conservative majority is prevented and Labour gets a coalition deal with the SNP to enter government, that is political suicide for Labour.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #974 on: May 20, 2017, 05:34:50 PM »

It occurs to me that perhaps the Conservative manifesto was not entirely well judged in all respects.

STRONG AND STABLE!!!

STRONG. AND. STABLE.
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