UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Lachi]

I found this picture, which I found rather amusing

[parochial boy]

Question for the UK pollsters. My understanding is that Labour's vote is distributed more efficiently than the Tories' (e.g. compare's Labour's majority in 2005 to the Tory results in 2010 and 2015). However, there has been some indication that traditionally Labour areas are trending Conservative. Will this have any effect on the relative efficiency of each party's vote?

As of 2015, it is pretty well accepted that it is no longer the case that Labour's vote is distributed more efficiently, as many once marginal constituencies (most memorably Nuneaton) have trended heavily towards the Conservatives as a result of Labour's already well documented difficulties in attracting working class voters (as well as demographic changes - most notably in the once marginal seats in East Kent and the Thames estuary, which are now all but dead for Labour).

Combined with the SNP killing Labour in Scotland, it seems that, based on 2015 it would take around a 12% lead for Labour to scrape a majority, whereas the Tories only need a roughly 5% lead.

[cp]

I found this picture, which I found rather amusing

What's most remarkable about that cartoon is that it appeared in the Times, a typically Tory-sympathetic paper.

Also, for your daily enjoyment, Conservative defense minister Michael Fallon had a disastrous interview trying to attack Corbyn's (actually Boris Johnson's) words on the causes of terrorism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv37NERzIhU

[EnglishPete]

I dare say that, to the average person under the age of 45, who have barely any recollection/experience of the troubles, talking about the IRA are basically irrelevant. On the flip side, people over the age of 45 are already voting Tory.

So the "IRA! IRA!" argument isn't going to land as heavily as people think.

...and the thing that a lot of people have forgotten: in the 1980s and 90s rather a lot of people here were broadly sympathetic to Irish Republicanism, even if o/c not to the IRA.

You said that before and when I asked for evidence you gave polling evidence from the 1980s and 1990s from the mainland showing a majority of the population supporting the idea of Irish reunification. Well being around in England at the time I remember it was not uncommon to hear some people advocate that the mainland separate and withdraw from Northern Ireland. The most common argument used was "If the bloody Irish want to blow each other up we should just let them get on with it". Such people would have been the main group amongst people on the mainland who supported British withdrawal from Northern Ireland but they sure as hell wouldn't have been fans of the IRA or Irish Republicanism in general.

Others liked the idea of Irish reunification but thought that the UK government had a duty to ensure that it was only done with democratic majority support and in a democratic way. The number of people who thought that the mainland UK government was actually doing an injustice to the people of Northern Ireland (and thus sympathising with the SF position) by being there were always a small minority and would be the kind of people who would only ever vote Labour anyway.

its similar the opposition in the US to involvement in wars in the middle east. There is majority opposition in the US to such involvement. However many of those opposing will do so along the lines of "Its nothing to do with us. Why should we spend blood and treasure trying to save some middle eastern sh**thole? If they want to blow each other up we should just let them get on with it"

I'm sure there has never been a case in UK or US history where the majority of people opposed a foreign war either partly or wholly because they thought it was an injustice to the foreigners.

The issue people have with Corbyn is that in any conflict between Britain and her enemies he always seems to side with Britain's enemies

[EnglishPete]

Great Tory attack ad that sums up much that is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn and renders him unfit to be PM

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/868217762027536384

[Silent Hunter]

Have the IRA hot take artists considered that the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer has the surname "McDonnell"? There's a very substantial number of people in Britain who have Irish ancestry or who are Catholic and they tend to be Labour voters. With this in mind, the idea that this issue is going to destroy Labour in its heartlands is very strange to me.

Whatever people's memories of the IRA are, it seems that a substantial majority agree with Corbyn's premise.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/88c1aff0-41f4-11e7-94a8-2ab0a50a8b9c/question/a76fff10-41f4-11e7-aa59-c62e889b3830/toplines

They may have weighted that, but it's still a self-selecting poll. Ergo, absolute junk.

As for the editorial cartoon, you always get an array of views in British opinion sections. At any rate, Sir David Low, the editorial cartoonist on The Evening Standard was a Labour supporter who worked on a Tory paper - he asked for and got complete editorial freedom.

[Silent Hunter]

Former gives the Conservatives a majority of 104 based on Electoral Calculus.

A note on methodology

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I laughed pretty hard at how the cartoonist portrayed May.

[Maxwell]

Corbyn at 31% favorable? that's pretty damn good.

[Phony Moderate]

Great Tory attack ad that sums up much that is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn and renders him unfit to be PM

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/868217762027536384

So why did they call the election at all when they had another three years of the term left? It has to remind one of Cameron's insistence that Brexit would be a disaster, to which a similar question was often posed.

Have the IRA hot take artists considered that the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer has the surname "McDonnell"? There's a very substantial number of people in Britain who have Irish ancestry or who are Catholic and they tend to be Labour voters. With this in mind, the idea that this issue is going to destroy Labour in its heartlands is very strange to me.

Whatever people's memories of the IRA are, it seems that a substantial majority agree with Corbyn's premise.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/88c1aff0-41f4-11e7-94a8-2ab0a50a8b9c/question/a76fff10-41f4-11e7-aa59-c62e889b3830/toplines

They may have weighted that, but it's still a self-selecting poll. Ergo, absolute junk.

Yeah, I'm surprised the agree percentage is as low as 53%. Possibly some right-wingers and older people not wishing to agree with Corbyn.

[Silent Hunter]

The Tories only had a majority of 14 and saw a chance to get a landslide based on Corbyn's polling. They still might.

[EnglishPete]

Great Tory attack ad that sums up much that is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn and renders him unfit to be PM

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/868217762027536384

So why did they call the election at all when they had another three years of the term left? It has to remind one of Cameron's insistence that Brexit would be a disaster, to which a similar question was often posed.

Well they had to have an election at some point and they had absolutely no control over who the leader of the opposition was. At some point they'd have to run an election against Corbyn and now seemed like the best time. As for people agreeing with Corbyn arguing for peace in the middle east I can understand people agreeing with the way Corbyn dresses up his views. However over the decades his prescription for ' peace' is always the same. He gives words of comfort and defence to anti western and specifically anti British terrorists and dictators. At the same time he always urges the UK to diusarm, take down any defences and give in to terrorist demands. And this working for victory for Britain's enemies is always dressed up in the language of peace.

I would some up my view on why Corbyn is unfit to be PM. Corbyn has spent his entire career defending and excusing left wing dictators and terrorists. His professions of support for democracy and the peaceful transfer of power are as fake and dishonest as many of his other statements.

Corbyn has for decades supported the specific tactic of using of violent street mobs against the 'far right'. If he was Prime Minister such mobs would not only get tacit encouragement and support from government but they would extend their activity to more frequently target Tories and then later LibDems and the Labour right. That and Corbyn and McDonnell's economic policies would see the UK on the road to becoming the new Venezuela. Those who look at the hunger and mob intimidation of Venezuela and think it can't possibly happen in the UK are being complacent. If Corbyn wins then Venezuela can happen here.

It is vitally important that the UK doesn't make the same mistake the Labour right made in the 2015 leadership election of underestimating the danger of the far left. The Tories, in my view, have been far too mild in their criticisms of this dangerous extremist.

Theresa May might seem as useful as a chocolate teapot sometimes. However the choice between her and Corbyn is like the choice between having a chocolate teapot and having smallpox.

[EnglishPete]

I'm very much hoping that this Labour poll surge is going to scare many Tory voters to the polls. It is absolutely vital for the cause of freedom and democracy in the UK that Corbyn's Labour Party not only lose but lose badly. I see the violence, chaos, tyranny and hunger in Venezuela and I really don't want it to happen in my own country.

[DL]

"Surge" is a bit of an overstatement...at best Labour will lose by 8-10 points instead of losing by 18-20 points - whihc likely means they will lose about 20 seats rather than losing 100 seats. No one seriously thinks there is the slightest possibility of Labour actually winning the election. IMHO, a lot of people in the UK don't want to see Theresa May waltz away with too big a win and have no serious opposition at all. We are a looooooong way from getting to a point where people start to think that Corbyn ebing PM is a serious possibility - we are still in the realm of "how big a landslide will the Tories get?"

[DL]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-2)
LAB: 38% (+4)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
(ORB_Int / 24 - 25 May)

Well that makes - what - four polls in a row that have been in field AFTEr the Manchester bombing and every single one shows Labour gaining in the Tories...so whatever happened to the theory that the attack was 100% TOTALLY CERTAIN BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT to give a boost to May and that Tories???

[Former President tack50]

"Surge" is a bit of an overstatement...at best Labour will lose by 8-10 points instead of losing by 18-20 points - whihc likely means they will lose about 20 seats rather than losing 100 seats. No one seriously thinks there is the slightest possibility of Labour actually winning the election. IMHO, a lot of people in the UK don't want to see Theresa May waltz away with too big a win and have no serious opposition at all. We are a looooooong way from getting to a point where people start to think that Corbyn ebing PM is a serious possibility - we are still in the realm of "how big a landslide will the Tories get?"

To be fair, while no one doubts that the Tories will win the election, just denying May a larger majority than she has, or even getting a hung parliament (even one where the Tories are at say, 320 seats and can still easily get stuff passed with the DUP and UUP) would probably already be a huge achievement for Corbyn and Labour.

I think the only way for Labour to "win" would be with a hung parliament and in a way where Labour+Lib Dems+(Left Wing Northern Irish parties)+SNP+Plaid (yes, the full "coalition of chaos") have more seats than Conservatives+Right wing Northern Irish parties.

Of course such a government would be extremely unstable (if it's even possible at all), but that's the only way for a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn to happen IMO.

Then again, such an scenario is extremely unlikely anyways.

[King of Kensington]

"Surge" is a bit of an overstatement...at best Labour will lose by 8-10 points instead of losing by 18-20 points - whihc likely means they will lose about 20 seats rather than losing 100 seats. No one seriously thinks there is the slightest possibility of Labour actually winning the election. IMHO, a lot of people in the UK don't want to see Theresa May waltz away with too big a win and have no serious opposition at all. We are a looooooong way from getting to a point where people start to think that Corbyn ebing PM is a serious possibility - we are still in the realm of "how big a landslide will the Tories get?"

Labour's problems are far deeper than Corbyn's personality or his "far left" policies. 

[Chief Justice Keef]

Take my energy Jezza

[DL]

Labour's problems are far deeper than Corbyn's personality or his "far left" policies. 

Yes, but in some ways Labour's problems are also much LESS severe than people thought just a few months ago. Remember the days when the conventional wisdom was that between Corbyn taking Labour wayy off to the "loony left" and the Brexit vote created a huge opportunity for a centre left 100% pro-EU option was supposed to give the Lib Dems a huge amount of oxygen and lead to them making a big comeback??? Whatever happened to that?

Also, just a few months ago the conventional wisdom was that UKIP would target Labour's "heartland" seats in the north that had voted heavily for Brexit and that the working class vote there would go the way of working class voters in the US going to Trump and working class voters in France going to LePen...again, whatever happened to that? These days UKIP is in low single digits.

It may not seem like much of a consolation if the Tories get a big majority, but at least Labour is going to be left as the only viable opposition party in the UK and one thing they will not have to do is look over their shoulder at a resurgent Lib Dem and UKIP encroaching on their territory

[Silent Hunter]

The election hasn't happened yet. A lot could change in the next 12 days.

A few months ago, we weren't expecting this election for one thing...

[Blair]

After 2015 I'm really enjoying an election where the entire discussion isn't about opinion polling...

[DL]

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

[ApatheticAustrian]

I laughed pretty hard at how the cartoonist portrayed May.

british cartoonists are monsters lol

cameron always has been a condom.

[Lachi]

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

I don't think it will, considering how huge the SNP base was to begin with. I think we would need to se a new scotland regional poll to confirm any questions though.

[MAINEiac4434]

I laughed pretty hard at how the cartoonist portrayed May.

british cartoonists are monsters lol

cameron always has been a condom.

They can almost make Ben Garrison look sane in comparison.