UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207432 times)
Barnes
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« Reply #1200 on: May 27, 2017, 07:57:49 PM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

Scottish Labour has many problems which go back a lot further than Corbyn, and as the locals showed, while they might be stabilizing in some parts of Scotland, there's still no place but down!
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1201 on: May 27, 2017, 10:08:19 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2017, 10:17:51 PM by Make Politics Boring Again »

This one's unintentionally funny.

https://goo.gl/photos/qU4zskazd7GxvK3aA
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« Reply #1202 on: May 27, 2017, 10:13:24 PM »


Error 404 not found?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1203 on: May 27, 2017, 10:18:01 PM »

Fixed.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #1204 on: May 28, 2017, 05:12:51 AM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

Scottish Labour have deep, deep problems and I don't see this changing things for them.  Labour's traditional appeal wasn't to "unionist voters" but to your traditional working class voters and they've mostly gone to the SNP at this point - it honestly wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of those voters didn't actually support independence - my Mum is doing this at this point: just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

I only see two Labour seats in Scotland in any remotely realistic scenario: I think that they'll hold onto Edinburgh South and have a small chance in East Lothian - past that, I see nothing.  The old heartland seats in the west are all SNP by huge margins now, and I can't see them getting anywhere near the swing they'd need even if they closed the gap.
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jfern
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« Reply #1205 on: May 28, 2017, 06:15:06 AM »

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(ComRes / 24 - 26 May)

That same poll has this. If the election gets more issued based, that's great for Labour.

On who 'have the best policies for people like me and my family':

May and the Tories: 37%
Corbyn and Labour: 42%
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Blair
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« Reply #1206 on: May 28, 2017, 06:41:56 AM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

 just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

The irony is that I have heard many Scottish Labour activists say they're the only party that doesn't drone on about independence; with the SNP+the tories being the ones who play it as a trump card
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1207 on: May 28, 2017, 06:52:36 AM »

YouGov/Sunday Times
Labour has dropped 2 points since last YG poll for Times but gap 2 less than last weekend.
Tory majority of 50

Other questions from that poll: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fpwbs2u7v8/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

Leaders' ratings:

May 49/40 (previous was 52/37)
Corbyn 30/58 (previous was 25/62)
Farron 20/46 (same as previous)

Responses to Manchester terrorist attack (well/badly):

May - 63/17
Corbyn - 52/19
Burnham - 46/10
Rudd - 34/18
Broadcast media - 67/17
Newspapers - 45/24

Trust more to handle security:

Tories - 44
Labour - 24
Not sure - 32

May - 49
Corbyn - 24
Not sure - 27

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1208 on: May 28, 2017, 07:38:39 AM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

Scottish Labour have deep, deep problems and I don't see this changing things for them.  Labour's traditional appeal wasn't to "unionist voters" but to your traditional working class voters and they've mostly gone to the SNP at this point - it honestly wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of those voters didn't actually support independence - my Mum is doing this at this point: just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

I only see two Labour seats in Scotland in any remotely realistic scenario: I think that they'll hold onto Edinburgh South and have a small chance in East Lothian - past that, I see nothing.  The old heartland seats in the west are all SNP by huge margins now, and I can't see them getting anywhere near the swing they'd need even if they closed the gap.

Aren't Edinburgh North and Leith and Renfrewshire East closer than East Lothian though? Or do local issues make those harder for Labour?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1209 on: May 28, 2017, 07:53:38 AM »

Labour may be narrowing the gap, but they are not closing it fast enough and there is a real possibility of polls overstating them.
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Slow Learner
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« Reply #1210 on: May 28, 2017, 08:08:16 AM »

I'm not a fan of Bell's characterisation of May ftr.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1211 on: May 28, 2017, 08:16:59 AM »

If the patterns of the local elections are repeated - hardly a certainty of course - there are some other seats in Scotland (mostly former mining areas) where Labour might have a chance at gaining. But that's a believe-it-when-it-happens thing.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1212 on: May 28, 2017, 08:19:13 AM »

Labour may be narrowing the gap, but they are not closing it fast enough and there is a real possibility of polls overstating them.

Well Labour aren't going to win; the issue is the amount of furniture saved. And the closer the gap the more chairs there are...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1213 on: May 28, 2017, 08:23:28 AM »

Labour may be narrowing the gap, but they are not closing it fast enough and there is a real possibility of polls overstating them.

Might be my Tory hackishness talking, but I'm certain that pensioners in the West Midlands are far more likely to turn out in the end than Corbynista university students.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1214 on: May 28, 2017, 08:27:54 AM »

Pretty clear that the rise in Labour support is mostly not coming from that sort of direction.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1215 on: May 28, 2017, 08:29:37 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2017, 08:31:57 AM by jaichind »

ICM/Sunday Poll

CON          46
LAB           32
LIB             8
UKIP           5
Green         2


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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1216 on: May 28, 2017, 08:35:32 AM »

Implied swings from most recent poll of each outfit since the campaign pause:

ICM - 3.5
ComRes - 2.5
Opinium - 1.5
SurveyMonkey - 0.5
YouGov - 0.5
ORB +0.5
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1217 on: May 28, 2017, 10:23:37 AM »

Apologies in advance for some crappy analysis, but coming back to the question of "who is voting Labour who didn't last time", I haven't really seen anyone talking about the social class aspect, other than the "traditional Labour voters going to the conservatives" narrative.

Anyway, something I've noticed from looking at some of the YouGov crosstabs is that it does seem that ABC1 voters may be about to vote to the left of C2DE voters.

For example - the Yougove on 25th May that gave the Tories that 5 point lead had the following crosstabs:

          Con      Lab      LD
ABC1  41%     38%    12%
C2DE  45%     37%    6%

The more recent YouGov had C2DE voters voting to the left of ABC1s, but overall, most of the polls I have looked at have ABC1 voters giving the Tories a smaller lead than Working Class voters - so I feel fairly comfortable saying that the Middle Classes could be about to give Labour a better score than Working Class ones.

In contrast, according to YouGov, AB voters gave the Tories a 16% win in 2015, and C1 voters gave them an 8% win, which is roughly an 8% margin across the two groups.

Basically, it would seem that, accounting for the fact that Crosstabs have mahoosive margins of error but I couldn't thin of a better way to look at this, middle class voters have either not swung, or have swung very slightly towards Labour 2015.

Which, I would suggest means that ultra-marginal London seats like Hampstead and Kilburn or Brentford and Isleworth could be more likely to stay Labour than it might otherwise seem
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Blair
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« Reply #1218 on: May 28, 2017, 10:28:49 AM »

I saw a comparison of the YouGov polling in April, and now, and Labour's surge was something like 15% up with C2DE voters- which explains how we got from 24-35%.

I am very skeptical of the argument about social class; namely because in London the areas that still deliever big thumping majorities for Labour are the seats that have well more poor people; they just tend to be ethnic minorities as well
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1219 on: May 28, 2017, 10:51:38 AM »

Diane Abbott compares changing views on the IRA to changing hairstyle

Also, here's what might be deemed a Freudian slip...

Quote
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bore
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« Reply #1220 on: May 28, 2017, 11:22:50 AM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

Scottish Labour have deep, deep problems and I don't see this changing things for them.  Labour's traditional appeal wasn't to "unionist voters" but to your traditional working class voters and they've mostly gone to the SNP at this point - it honestly wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of those voters didn't actually support independence - my Mum is doing this at this point: just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

I only see two Labour seats in Scotland in any remotely realistic scenario: I think that they'll hold onto Edinburgh South and have a small chance in East Lothian - past that, I see nothing.  The old heartland seats in the west are all SNP by huge margins now, and I can't see them getting anywhere near the swing they'd need even if they closed the gap.

Aren't Edinburgh North and Leith and Renfrewshire East closer than East Lothian though? Or do local issues make those harder for Labour?

Labour, against all expectations, held East Lothian in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2016 (and with an increased majority!) , and only lost one council seat and maintained largest party status at the council elections this month. So it's become clear over the last 2 years that Labour remain fundamentally strong in East Lothian, and it's being targeted accordingly.

Whereas Labour did relatively well in East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh North and Leith in 2015, they were standing popular, prominent incumbents. But since then, in the Holyrood and council elections we've fallen back in both seats substantially. In particular East Renfrewshire was, before 1997, a pretty solid conservative seat, and over the last few years the tories have re emerged, so Labour are no longer the obvious, or even a possible choice for unionist tactical voters. For instance in 2016 the Tories gained Eastwood, the scottish parliament seat that is broadly similar to East Renfrewshire, albeit Eastwood is better for the tories, as East Renfrewshire also contains areas like Barrhead and Neilston. Nevertheless, without a high profile incumbent (Jim Murphy was the leader of Scottish Labour when he lost east renfrewshire), with the Tories having become the largest party in the seat at Holyrood and at the locals, Labour have pretty much no chance in the seat, although they seem to be running a spirited campaign.

Edinburgh North and Leith is fundamentally better for Labour than East Renfrewshire, and it has quite a bit in common with Edinburgh South, so a victory wouldn't be completely shocking, but recent results, combined with the loss of incumbency, show far less resilience among the labour vote than East Lothian, so it's a less likely gain.
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bore
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« Reply #1221 on: May 28, 2017, 11:37:34 AM »

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

 just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

The irony is that I have heard many Scottish Labour activists say they're the only party that doesn't drone on about independence; with the SNP+the tories being the ones who play it as a trump card

ICA is right that in terms of public, official, campaigning the SNP pretty much never mention independence. Of course, they don't have to. Everyone knows that they want another referendum and they want independence. And in 2015 and 2016 they had the support of pretty much every Yes voter, and it's pretty clear that these voters didn't switch en masse to the SNP simply because they loved their new education policies. If they want to get a landslide, like in 2015, though, they need to win over a few no voters as well, which is why they don't talk about independence, because otherwise they'll scare these voters off. But it is a bit rich for them to complain about others campaigning on the constitution when most of their voters are motivated by it too.

I get ICA's mum's frustration with Labour as well. I hate constitutional politics, and I hate that it is how we decide our votes now. But unfortunately the Scottish population don't, or at least don't hate it enough to not vote on it. We tried to run our 2016 campaign on moving on from the referendum and more spending on healthcare, but we got thrashed, and, worse, the tories, by running their campaign entirely against independence, surged. So the party made the decision that if it wanted to remain relevant in Scottish politics it had to have a strong position on the constitution, and it had to talk about it. It's unfortunate that that's the world is, but that is the way it is.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1222 on: May 28, 2017, 12:00:01 PM »

The social grade breakdowns aren't much use from any pollster but from YouGov are worse than useless and not worth paying attention to. Can explain in tedious detail later.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1223 on: May 28, 2017, 12:48:15 PM »

The social grade breakdowns aren't much use from any pollster but from YouGov are worse than useless and not worth paying attention to. Can explain in tedious detail later.

Please do.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1224 on: May 28, 2017, 12:48:52 PM »

well, no one can claim the UK pollsters are herding.

i hope may's majority is small.....she tries hard to achieve her own unmaking anyway.
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