UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No, they're friends without the need for any "" marks.

Anyway, that would be amusing, but it would also mean breaching a very longstanding (and to them very important) point of principle.

Yeah, it would be hilarious to see, but I'm doubtful that it would actually happen.

[Silent Hunter]

With only 8 seats, the Lib Dems aren't seen as viable options in a lot of places, so those wanting to remove the Tories are voting Labour instead.

Also, that Survation poll would probably give the Tories an overall majority - the Lib Dems are estimated on Electoral Calculus to be down to 1 seats (!) as are Plaid Cymru. UKIP and the Greens would be wiped out and with any SNP losses to the Tories in Scotland, Labour's projected 14 gains won't be enough.

Labour need to get the Tory majority down to -20 at least to have any chance of a SNP deal working and they are just not there.

[Cory]

Labour need to get the Tory majority down to -20 at least to have any chance of a SNP deal working and they are just not there.

God dammit.

[MaxQue]

Survation/GMB:
CON 42 (-1)
LAB 40 (+3)
LD 6 (-2)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 1 (=)
SNP 4 (+2)

2nd-3rd June
N=1,103


The decline of the Lib dems is just bewildering, they had a simple message for remain voters but the message haven't cut through apparently.
It would be really astonishing if they polled 6% or less of the vote....

Survation assumes a turnout of 90% of 18-24's???

67% of their 18-24's say they will vote. Survation uses self-reported turnout.

They know it will be lower (due to social desirability of intending to vote), but say it won't affect results, because self-reported turnout is higher than real turnout in all generations. They assume the effect is the same in all generations.

Pretty much pollsters have the same raw data, it's how they model age turnout from self-reporting (Survation) to using 2015 data (ICM) to hybrid methods between the two.

[Tender Branson]

I really don't buy these latest numbers of a tightening race.

My stomach still says the Tories will win comfortably by a double-digit margin.

[Klartext89]

Well, despite May and the Tories giving a lackluster campaign Performance, I'm sure it will be at least a 350 seat result. But it really shouldn't be that close.

Tight polling is also not bad cause it will bring out the Tory and Anti-Corbyn vote, the more "not energized" and "not interested" people vote, the better for the government.

Nevertheless, with every result, whether a 100 seat majority or a hung parliament, there will be pollsters who were spot on and pollsters who will have to explain a lot...

[ApatheticAustrian]

Labour needs at least 4-5 points more than the tories to be able to  create a coalition gov.

this is only about symbolism and kneecapping may.

@ tender.....only +10 would still be massive tightening.

[Tender Branson]

Corbyn/Labour might come into serious trouble in the final days:

(... enter pictures of Corbyn addressing an Islamic terrorist group back in 2002 ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

[Polkergeist]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'd like to remind everyone that winning the popular vote (something Labour may achieve now) does not necessarily translate into winning the majority of seats under British first-past-the-post system. Churchill lost the PV in 1951 but won a majority, Wilson lost the PV in February 1974 but gained plurality. It happened in other Westminster style-governed countried (see Canada 1979). It's all down to individual constituencies and I fear it'll give Tories the advantage.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'd like to remind everyone that winning the popular vote (something Labour may achieve now) does not necessarily translate into winning the majority of seats under British first-past-the-post system. Churchill lost the PV in 1951 but won a majority, Wilson lost the PV in February 1974 but gained plurality. It happened in other Westminster style-governed countries (see Canada 1979). It's all down to individual constituencies and I fear it'll give Tories the advantage.

[kyc0705]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

I doubt it. There are no early results; constituencies are only declared after every vote has been counted.

[Polkergeist]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

I doubt it. There are no early results; constituencies are only declared after every vote has been counted.

I mean during the declarations of the constituencies. Is there any website that has a rolling projection?

[Tender Branson]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

I doubt it. There are no early results; constituencies are only declared after every vote has been counted.

I mean during the declarations of the constituencies. Is there any website that has a rolling projection?

BBC, Sky News, all the major newspapers, Politico.eu and so on ...

[Polkergeist]

After the 10pm exit poll BBC only makes a projection well into the count, like at 3 or 4am.

Sky I think does the same. The newspapers give the results,  I don't know if they do forecasts.

I will check out politico.eu this time.

[DL]

What is the tipping point where Labour could start winning back some of their old heartland seats in Scotland that all went SnP in 2015

[Klartext89]

What is the tipping point where Labour could start winning back some of their old heartland seats in Scotland that all went SnP in 2015

Or they deliver seats like East Renfrewshire to the Tories by splitting the anti-Tory vote.

[DL]

I thought Labours gains were also coming from the Tories so they could help split the unionist vote and help the SNP hold onto seats that are vulnerable to the Tories

[IceAgeComing]

EastRen is an... odd seat really - before 1997 that area was amongst the most Tory-friendly in Scotland, in 1997 it went Labour (actually really quite shocking, it was the seat that everyone thought would stay Tory right until the result was declared) and they held both the Westminster seat and the equivalent Scottish Parliament seat from then until the SNP gained the former in 2015 and the Tories the latter in 2016 - although in an incredibly close three-way contest; the Tories were 1,600 ahead of the SNP who were 300 ahead of Labour - although that's Eastwood, I'm pretty sure the Westminster East Renfrewshire seat is more Labour-friendly.  Under the polling that showed a clear Tory lead I always had it probably going to the Tories, although with the current position its incredibly open between the three parties: a uniform swing projection shows Labour winning it but they most likely got a chunk of Tory tactical votes in 2015 and you'd expect them to go back to the Conservatives considering that they are challenging in the seat.  As much as I dislike Blair McDougall he's probably the right sort of candidate for Labour to run in the seat (ran Better Together and David Milliband's 2010 leadership campaign, not exactly someone with the sort of socialist history that'd frighten the people of East Renfrewshire); considering that they really liked Jim Murphy for some incredibly odd reason.  My hunch is that Oswald will lose to the Tory, but if the vote splits right then she might just hold on.

Those polling numbers are actually pretty good for the SNP if they are uniform since it'll split the anti-SNP vote and let them hold onto a chunk of seats - the Tories will pick up a few and Labour have a chance in East Lothian on those numbers (plus although the Liberal numbers are awful they'll still most likely win Edinburgh West and possibly East Dunbartonshire and North East Fife if they can piece together an anti-SNP tactical vote) but they'll probably be above 50 if that scenario happens.  The problem is that I don't know how useful the 2015 results are for tracking target seats and the like - the parties seem to be using the 2016 results plus some guesswork which means that any uniform swing projection is likely to be bunk, as often is the case when you have a party coming from nowhere like the Tories are.

[DavidB.]

Corbyn/Labour might come into serious trouble in the final days:

(... enter pictures of Corbyn addressing an Islamic terrorist group back in 2002 ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

F***ing incredible.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, unbelievable ...

I cannot imagine that the UK voters will allow Corbyn and Labour to come anywhere close to power on Thursday. Corbyn is a radical and a security risk that needs to be shut out from power.

It's better for UK voters to remain calm and give the steady Theresa May a strong mandate for the next years.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Corbyn/Labour might come into serious trouble in the final days:

(... enter pictures of Corbyn addressing an Islamic terrorist group back in 2002 ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

F***ing incredible.

He is what he is.

If he was to come to power, it would potentially create a world crisis. I think that'll weigh heavily on voters' minds when they vote. As well as potential coalition partners'.

[Phony Moderate]

He is what he is.

If he was to come to power, it would potentially create a world crisis. I think that'll weigh heavily on voters' minds when they vote. As well as potential coalition partners'.

Who's in the White House again?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

He is what he is.

If he was to come to power, it would potentially create a world crisis. I think that'll weigh heavily on voters' minds when they vote. As well as potential coalition partners'.

Who's in the White House again?

A lunatic with ICBMs who has already disrupted relationships with most of the world's strongest allies.

Now imagine that and make him an active ally of the enemies of the west as well.