UK General Election, June 8th 2017

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Do the Lib Dems have a chance to come in 2nd

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do the Lib Dems have a chance to come in 2nd

 - every UK election in recent history except 2015.

That's never going to happen because they're a bunch of goofs.

2010 seemed like their only chance at that , in 1997 2001 2005 Labour was too strong for them to come in 2nd

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It seems Tony Blair will campaign with LIB this time.

wow way to stink up their brand.

Still better then to be associated with Corbyn

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My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

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I think the next Labour leader (after Corbyn likely steps aside) could stay on as leader of the party for a really long time, if Labour manages to make substantial gains in the next GE, even possibly without winning outright.

A-la Kinnock.

Would u say the numbers I predicted is possible

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My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121 (No way this low, at least above 170)
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote ), noway they come 2nd in the popular vote
SNP: 54
UKIP:11 (If they didn't get 11 seats in 2015, they ceartinly ain't this time.
Others :7

Let me laugh, oh let me laugh again no.

Conservative: 41.5% (358)
Labour: 26% (183)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (31)
UKIP: 10.5% (2)
Greens: 1.5% (1)

Lib dems will cost labor big

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yah your right Labour cant go below 150

Tories 393(41.4%)
Labour 152(20.5%)
SNP 54(4.9%)
Lib Dems 28(21.6%)
UKIP 0(9%)
Others 23

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Maybe after 12 years of Tory rule the Left will finally unite in 2022, I could see a real attempt at a serious coalition especially if Brexit flops.

If tories get 385 + I see them lasting up til 2027

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I love how the left is blaming Blair for their problems despite the fact that he is the only Labour prime minster to serve for two full terms and is the only labour leader to win an election since 1974

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Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

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Nearly Half of all Labour voters may desert the party


Wow if this is true

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nearly Half of all Labour voters may desert the party


Wow if this is true

Im not surprised, a lot of soft Labour votes.

Labour is torn by soft Leavers and Remainers voters, whichever way the party moves it will lose votes.
Before the referendum, i thought the vote would hurt the tories in England, like indyref hurt Labour in Scotland, however the tories are standing their ground and it UKIP and Labour being hurt most.

Maybe anecdotal, but ive noticed Tory remain voters are less likely to defect to the Lib Dems then Labour remain voters. 

If those numbers are true and their current support hold tories may win a 1997 style landslide instead of a little less then 1983

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lol: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-must-absolutely-remain-labour-leader-should-he-lose-the-election-says-ally-chris-williamson_uk_59089d43e4b0bb2d0871f129

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BBC gets smacked around every cycle, they are always accused of supporting the ruling party

Did they support Labour in 2005, and the Tories in 1992 and 1997

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As far as policies go, this document isn't anywhere close to 1983, but on the other hand, Michael Foot was a far superior leader, so it's tit for tat, I suppose.

Wait 1983 was actually more liberal then 2017

[OSR stands with Israel]

As far as policies go, this document isn't anywhere close to 1983, but on the other hand, Michael Foot was a far superior leader, so it's tit for tat, I suppose.

Wait 1983 was actually more liberal then 2017

As Barnes said 'liberal' is the wrong word as a lot of what the hard left stands for is extremely authoritarian and thus not liberal. As I understand it in American political jargon 'liberal' has lost it's original meaning which is loosely socially progressive, pro free markets, pro free trade, internationalism etc. and is sadly used instead as a synonym for 'left wing' or  'social democrat'. In British political jargon the distinction remains and 'liberal' and 'left wing' remain two entirely separate things which is why liberal conservatism is not an oxymoron.

But on Labour's '83 manifesto look it up. It's immortalised in British political history as the 'longest suicide note in history'.

No cause Corbyn is more left win then foot that's why I thought It would be more left wing .

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Lord Ashcroft Mega poll (40K)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204



UK sample of (40,000):
Cons 40%
Lab 23%
Lib 10%
UKIP 5%
others 6%
Won't vote or Won't say 15%

CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY



https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2%C2%B7&RLId=%C2%B2%C2%B3&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=26

If 2017 is bigger landslide then 1997 , would that convince Labour to move in a more centrist direction.

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The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

Blaming Corbyn for all of Labour's problems is just cheap. It's definitely true that he and his baggage are extremely bad for Labour. But, you can't pretend that this is not a systemic issue that Labour is facing. If it was any other major Labour politician as the leader, they would also be doing very badly.

The Tories were in similar amount of trouble in the early 2000s but they didnt tank the party to a worse level after John Major while Corbyn is tanking them to a worse level after Blair/Brown.

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I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

I think the reason she called an election was for both reasons ,to win a huge majority and to buy the tories more time . If tories had gotten the 140 + majority they were supposed to get ,they likely would have had a large enough majority to last at least until 2027 , which would mean the affecs of brexit even if its negative wouldn't sink the tories .