UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Clyde1998]

Watch the Tories lose their majority now.

I don't think Labour will do as badly as people thin they will. I'm looking forward to the TV debates between Corbyn and May.

Less than two months in advance?  Christ.

This is actually going to be one of the longest campaigns ever. Usually they are only four weeks. 1997 was about the only other six-week campaign in the past century or so.

Will be about four weeks, as there are local elections in May.

[Clyde1998]

Answer a question for a newbie - if this motion passes, will the 2020 election be held as scheduled?

No. It will be a five year term, unless another early election is called.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (Apr 12-13)
Con - 44% (+7 on 2015)
Lab - 23% (-7)
Lib - 12% (+4)
UKIP - 10% (-3)
Nat - 6% (+1)
Grn - 4% (NC)

Labour still ahead among remain voters, but Tories miles ahead among leave voters.

[Clyde1998]

So I guess no Brexit negotiations until the election? That will leave only 16 months to negotiate.

The EU haven't decided their negotiating position yet; will be finalised on 29th(?) May.

[Clyde1998]

What will happen with the Manchester Gorton by election?

Apparently it will still go ahead. Don't see the point though.

[Clyde1998]

Using the regional data from that YouGov poll:

Con - 380 (+50)
Lab - 180 (-52)
SNP - 51 (-5)
Lib - 13 (+5)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
UKIP - 2 (+1)
Grn - 1 (N/C)
Oth - 19 (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

Tories will win seats from the SNP if they keep around 25% - the Borders, Aberdeenshire and possibly Edinburgh, might produce Conservative MPs. Anti-SNP tactical voting will be much easier in this election than in 2015. Although, the Brexit issue may make it easier for the SNP to hold on in some seats.

That being said, once the campaign gets going, there's no certainty that result will end up being anything like the polls do now.

[Clyde1998]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Edinburgh South fall to the Tories. The council elections will give a good indication of how Scotland will vote in June though.

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Greens are suggesting that they will stand aside for the SNP in key marginal seats where the Tories could win seats, according to the National.

Meanwhile, the English and Welsh Greens are seeking a meeting with Labour and the Lib Dems to discuss electoral pacts to stop the Tories - link.

It will be interesting to see what happens in regards to this.

[Clyde1998]

George Osborne is standing down as an MP - http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-19/george-osborne-standing-down-as-mp/

[Clyde1998]

Using the average of the most recent polls from each pollster this month:

GB-wide
Con - 43.5% (+5.7 on 2015)
Lab - 25.5% (-5.7)
UKIP - 10.3% (-2.7)
Lib - 10.3% (+2.2)
Grn - 4.3% (+0.5)
Oth - 6.3% (+0.0)

Scotland sub-samples:
SNP - 44.3% (-5.7 on 2015)
Con - 24.6 (+9.7)
Lab - 14.4 (-9.9)
Grn - 7.2 (+5.9)
Lib - 7.0 (-0.5)
UKIP - 2.0 (+0.4)
Oth - 0.5 (+0.1)

Electoral Calculus Seat Projection
Con - 382 (+51; includes Speaker)
Lab - 181 (-51)
SNP - 54 (-2)
Lib - 10 (+2)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 1 (NC)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 18 (NC)

[Clyde1998]

ITV have confirmed that they will be holding a TV debate prior to the election, a point just raised by Angus Robertson (SNP's Westminster leader) in the election motion debate. I wonder if they'd 'empty chair' the Prime Minister if she decides not to take part.

[Clyde1998]

Early Election Motion
Should there be an early general election?
Aye - 522
Nay - 13
Absent or Abstain - 115

Parliament has approved an early election.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (Apr 12-13)
Con - 44% (+7 on 2015)
Lab - 23% (-7)
Lib - 12% (+4)
UKIP - 10% (-3)
Nat - 6% (+1)
Grn - 4% (NC)

Labour still ahead among remain voters, but Tories miles ahead among leave voters.

That produces, using the most recent YouGov Scotland poll for the Scottish seats (using Electoral Calculus):

Con - 398 (+67)
Lab - 161 (-71)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Lib - 10 (+2)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 2 (+1!)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 18 (NC)
Con maj of 146

But when you put undecided voters back to the party that they voted for in 2015 (not saying that would happen, but still):

Con - 351 (+20)
Lab - 209 (-23)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Lib - 9 (+1)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 1 (NC)
UKIP - 1 (NC)
Oth - 18 (NC)
Con maj of 52

Seriously reduces the advance that the Conservatives make. Undecided voters are, generally, 2015 Labour, Lib Dem and 'Other' voters. It will be interesting to see where they end up as the election goes on.

[Clyde1998]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

This would be more seats than the Liberals got in 2010; and would require them to win not only 20 odd seats off the tories, but also about 30 off Labour.

Besides UKIP are not getting 11

Others can't get as low as seven either, unless the Tories or UKIP win seats in Northern Ireland.

[Clyde1998]

Something to think about, Labour tend to poll lower as the campaign progresses, Tories more mixed.

I think that's may be partially down to turnout - Labour areas, generally, have lower turnouts. Interesting to note though.

Would be interesting to see what the Lib Dems do over the course of a campaign, as well.

[Clyde1998]

In fact, I've just worked it out myself going back to 1992:


The implied result on the average change over the last six elections is Con 44.6; Lab 19.7; Lib 13.8, which looks ridiculous.

[Clyde1998]

If Corbyn is given a chance to get his polices out, I think Labour will start to pick up. There are a number of polices that the public like.

I feel that this is why May doesn't want to be involved in a debate, as it will allow for people to contrast the Tories' policies with Labour's. Also, she doesn't want her, and Cameron's, record scrutinised as it would probably harm the Tories. Additionally, it may reduce the number of people that actually watch the debates if May isn't there.

I can't see the Conservatives ending up on 48%, although anything above 42% would probably lead to a landslide...

[Clyde1998]

http://www.itv.com/news/border/2017-04-20/fish-finger-to-take-on-tim-farron-in-election/

Tim Farron has his first competitor in his seat - a Fish Finger.

[Clyde1998]

Apparently the upcoming Panelbase Scotland poll puts the Tories on 12 seats. 😖

@ShippersUnbound: "Sunday Times Scotland/Panelbase poll

John Curtice analysis of our poll shows Tories on course for 12 seats in Scotland.

Labour wiped out"

[Clyde1998]

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

Labour do have a policy on independence, but it isn't the only thing they ever mention - unlike the Tories.

[Clyde1998]

Survation:
Con - 40% (+2 since January)
Lab - 29% (-)
Lib - 11% (+1)
UKIP - 11% (-2)

[Clyde1998]

Survation Scotland
SNP - 43.1%
Con - 27.9%
Lab - 17.8%
Lib - 8.8%

[Clyde1998]

The poll tax was 27 years ago. There are now voters who don't even remember the invasion of Iraq...

It was, but it cemented the idea of the nasty uncaring party and the fact that the poll tax was applied in Scotland first, made the tories deeply unpopular among scots.

Many Scottish tories tried to de-toxify the party image but failed, like David McLetchie
 and Annabel Goldie which was a decent women.

What about Ruth Davidson?

Ruth have been impressive, i wouldn't mind voting for a tory like her.
For god sake, she's more Liberal then Tim Farron in LGBT rights........

That's probably because she is LGBT.

I don't think she has been all that impressive - she came out in support of the rape clause, ffs. She wouldn't be doing anywhere near as good as she is without the independence issue.

[Clyde1998]

ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.

Has anyone got the "polling errors" for each pollster from the 2015 election and the 2016 referendum?