UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Whenever I hear about a snap election, I always think of Robert Muldoon of NZ calling an early election in 1984 while drunk.

Reporter: "Have we got a date, Prime Minister?"

Muldoon: "We're going to make the fourteenth of July which we've worked out in the government house as being the appropriate date."

Reporter: "That doesn't give much time to run up to an election, Prime Minister."

Muldoon: "Doesn't give my opponents much time to run up to an election, does it?"

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZLDve40cxlk

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP 49%
CON 29%
LAB 15%
LD 5%
OTHER 2%
(YouGov  (19/4/17))

Westminster voting intention (Scotland subsample of 174)
SNP: 44%
CON: 28%
LAB: 10%
LD: 6%
OTHER: 3%
(ComRes / 19 - 20 April)

Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP: 43%
CON: 32%
LAB: 14%
LD: 8%
OTHER: 3%
(Opinium/Observer / 19 - 20 Apr)

5 years ago i would've thought its madness for the tories to poll over 20% in Scotland,

Ive always thought there are a lot of centre right voters in Scotland but wont vote tory after the poll tax.

Fair play to Ruth Davidson,

As a note, Scotland's "Poll Tax" is completely different from America's (now outlawed) poll taxes and wouldn't be called anything close to a poll tax here (it has nothing to do with paying a tax to vote).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

If he wins, great for Bernie. If he doesn't, he doesn't need to be tied to the Corbyn baggage (you endorsed X or Y blah blah) & his brother is running for the Green Party. But he has praised ideologically & the broader view economically what Corbyn is taking which is not dis-similar to him.

Anyways, it is important Corbyn holds the Labour party rather than it be held by the lackeys of the war criminal Tony Blair.

I'd bet that Bernie wants Corbyn to win (and his brother to win that seat). I'm not sure if I'd prefer someone quite as far left as Corbyn, but I wouldn't want Blair back.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Latest ComRes poll: Conservatives still +12

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)
(via @ComRes) Fieldwork: 31 May - 02 June.

So, no SNP?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

2 terrorist attacks in the span of a few days would seem be a huge failure on the Gov't

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

So, basically we aren't getting anything from the polls.

Polls go up, polls go down. Can't explain that.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

anyone thinks this is going to move ANY votes at all?

Sadiq Khan has spoken for London and our country in standing up to hate. That is how we stop terrorists winning, not by promoting division.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/871851243022450688



Theresa May: Trump 'wrong' to attack London mayor
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/336353-theresa-may-trump-wrong-to-be-questioning-london-mayor

Some? I realize as an American we often wrongly inflate our importance in other countries choosing a government, but Trump is widely disliked over there, arguably including among swing voters.

I don't think many persuadable voters will disagree with Khan, it's just they aren't likely to care enough to abandon the Tories.

Maybe they'll go UKIP?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No, they're friends without the need for any "" marks.

Anyway, that would be amusing, but it would also mean breaching a very longstanding (and to them very important) point of principle.

Yeah, it would be hilarious to see, but I'm doubtful that it would actually happen.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/872181737933217794

Absolutely disgusting. Civil liberties should NEVER be compromised.