UK General Election, June 8th 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 208584 times)
Shadows
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« on: April 18, 2017, 07:27:56 AM »

Very opportunistic of Theresa May, she gets 5 years when she wins this with Labour in disarray ! Should be a fun election, If May can't win now, she should retire from politics !
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Shadows
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2017, 02:15:21 AM »

Corbyn is not a great leader but then people supported disastrous 3rd way Blair who went into the war in Iraq & killed everything what Labour stood for. The Labour manifesto is a mixed bag but mostly positive - Ban on fracking, Going big on Renewables, No tuition fees, 10 pounds minimum wage, more investment in housing & NHS !

Corbyn IMO is not a natural leader & not a solution but all these so-called moderates blast progressives for purity tests but when there is a not-so-perfect strong economic left candidate, they will turn their back on them & be even ready to go with freaking Theresa May & tories ! The only good thing about Corbyn is atleast he is willing to depart a bit from the disastrous Reagan/Thatcher ideology which has literally destroyed half the world !

Anyways about manifesto -

British voters overwhelmingly back Labour’s manifesto policies, poll finds. The ComRes survey shows around half of people support state ownership of the train network (52 per cent), energy market (49 per cent) and Royal Mail (50 per cent).On the plan to ban zero-hours contracts, 71 per cent said they backed the move, while just 16 per cent said they were against it. Income tax hikes for the highest 5 per cent of earners on salaries of more than £80,000 also got the thumbs up from 65 per cent of voters, with 24 per cent opposed to higher levies.

Full Article - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-manifesto-poll-voters-back-policies-jeremy-corbyn-latest-a7731536.html
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Shadows
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2017, 03:41:35 AM »

“I am often asked if as prime minister I would order the use of nuclear weapons,” Corbyn said,  “It’s an extraordinary question when you think about it,” he said. “Would you order the indiscriminate killing of millions of people? Would you risk such extensive contamination of the planet that no life could exist across large parts of the world? If circumstances arose where that was a real option, it would represent complete and cataclysmic failure. It would mean world leaders had already triggered a spiral of catastrophe for humankind.”

“No more hand-holding with Donald Trump,” he declared. “Britain deserves better than simply outsourcing our country’s security and prosperity to the whims of the Trump White House.” The Labour leader said he would honor Britain’s NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense. But the thrust of Corbyn’s speech was a warning about the “military-industrial complex” in both the United States and Britain, constantly agitating for war.

“I am not a pacifist,” Corbyn said. “I accept that military action, under international law and as a genuine last resort, is in some circumstances necessary.” “Regime change wars … and Western interventions … have failed in their own terms and made the world a more dangerous place,” he said.“They have not increased our security at home — just the opposite. And they have caused destabilization and devastation abroad.”

“A vote for Theresa May could be a vote to escalate the war in Syria, risking military confrontation with Russia, adding to the suffering of the Syrian people and increasing global insecurity.

http://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-jeremy-corbyns-foreign-policy-speech-labour/
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Shadows
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2017, 03:44:31 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2017, 03:48:02 AM by Shadows »

Well there hasn't been a single piece of military action (including Falklands/Kosovo) since 1945 that Jeremy has actually supported...

Probably better than supporting the war in Iraq, better to err on the side of caution rather than killing & butchering children like Blair supported !

Kosovo is understandable but I don't even blame for Corbyn for Falklands which was a total un-necessary war over islands near South Americans having a few thousand people which Thatcher & General Galtieri used to boost their own national popularity & play the patriotism card !
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2017, 03:49:55 AM »

“These problems are getting worse and fuelling threats and instability, Mr Corbyn said. The global situation is becoming more dangerous. And the new US President seems determined to add to the dangers by recklessly escalating the confrontation with North Korea, unilaterally launching missile strikes on Syria, opposing President Obama’s nuclear arms deal with Iran and backing a new nuclear arms race.”

“The US is the strongest military power on the planet by a very long way. It has a special responsibility to use its power with care and to support international efforts to resolve conflicts collectively and peacefully,” Mr Corbyn added. “Waiting to see which way the wind blows in Washington isn’t strong leadership. And pandering to an erratic Trump administration will not deliver stability.”

“This is the fourth general election in a row to be held while Britain is at war and our armed forces are in action in the Middle East and beyond. “The ‘bomb first, talk later’ approach to security has failed. To persist with it, as the Conservative Government has made clear it is determined to do, is a recipe for increasing not reducing threats and insecurity.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-foreign-policy-donald-trump-world-more-dangerous-place-general-election-2017-a7732106.html
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Shadows
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2017, 03:54:07 AM »

Theresa May would fire UK’s nuclear weapons as a ‘first strike’, says Defence Secretary Michael Fallon

Theresa May would fire Britain’s nuclear weapons as a ‘first strike’ if necessary, the Defence Secretary has said. Michael Fallon said the Prime Minister was prepared to launch Trident in “the most extreme circumstances”, even if Britain itself was not under nuclear attack.

Theresa May refuses to rule out fresh vote on Syria airstrikes after general election

Asked by the BBC during a campaign rally in the north-east whether she would rule out having a prior-entry vote, the Prime Minister replied: “As you know the United Kingdom is part of a coalition that is operating in Syria and Iraq with the United States and other countries too, to ensure that we acting to defeat Daesh [another name for Isis]. “When I look at the decisions I’ll be taking in terms of defence and foreign policy, there is one thing that will drive those decisions, and that is they will be taken in the British national interest.”

Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, has previously indicated that the British Government could bypass the Commons and join Mr Trump’s military efforts in the war-ravaged region if asked by the US administration. Speaking last month, Mr Johnson said it would be “very difficult to say no” if the US asked the UK to join its efforts against Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorial regime in response to another chemical attack.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-syria-airstrikes-vote-election-donald-trump-a7732906.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-syria-airstrikes-vote-election-donald-trump-a7732906.html

Let's go warmonger Theresa May !
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2017, 04:18:55 AM »

Well there hasn't been a single piece of military action (including Falklands/Kosovo) since 1945 that Jeremy has actually supported...

Probably better than supporting the war in Iraq, better to err on the side of caution rather than killing & butchering children like Blair supported !

Kosovo is understandable but I don't even blame for Corbyn for Falklands which was a total un-necessary war over islands near South Americans having a few thousand people which Thatcher & General Galtieri used to boost their own national popularity & play the patriotism card !

The Falklands are a British sovereign territory and the people living there are British and have confirmed that through democratic referendum. I agree that Britain should not be getting involved in most international wars but the Falklands are British territory and the job of the British government is to keep British people safe from attack.

Falklands was a Southern American island which has been colonized by the British, Spanish, Argentine people & so on. Majority of the people (who are very few btw) are probably of British descent because UK colonized it in the last 150 years. But anyways, UK has a right to protect its citizens & to fight for its territories but my point is Falkland war could have been avoided & both leaders literally jumped into the war to boost their own national popularity.

I totally understand why Corbyn is so reticent about going into war - I mean when Mossadegh tried to nationalize Iran's oil, the British oil interests (BP) & government had him killed - An innocent democratic secular leader butchered for no good reason but because more money can be obtained from Iran's oil. And he was replaced by a brutal dictator in Shah which created the Islamic Revolution & Khomeini coming to power. And then you have Iraq which has totally f**ked up the world.

Corbyn's dovish stance & aversion about going to un-necessary war & mass killings is atleast understandable - More than a million people have died in iraq-Syria alone. And you have the Tories talking about "Pre-emptive" use of nuclear weapons & more strikes & regime change with Assad !
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Shadows
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2017, 06:13:13 AM »

Miliband was not a strong progressive, supported intervention in Libya, turned against Corbyn, sure he wasn't Blair but he wasn't Corbyn either & he led Labour to a disastrous result !

Anyways Rubio is as hawkish as Jeb Bush & supported the Iraq War which butchered a million people. And I don't know how was decisive Hillary's victory - She was leading 60 to 2 in polls, with 100's of Millions of $, almost all the Super-Delegates, every Congressmen, Gov, Senator, Mayor with an initial media blackout of Bernie, very few debates etc - And she lost 22 states & 46% of the Pledged delegates to Sanders, a 74 year old Jewish Independent democratic Socialist.

Anyways - Corbyn is hammering the Tories among the young votes, but old dinosaurs are giving the Tories the win !

A recent mega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted found if 30 per cent more people under 25 vote, the Tories could lose the election. In 2015, 43 per cent of 18-25 year olds voted Labour, 55 per cent of those registered in the 2017 General Election intend to vote Labour and of those polled by 69 per cent said they “like” or “strongly like” Jeremy Corbyn, bucking the national trend.

http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/official-young-people-vote-likely-tories-lose/08/05/
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Shadows
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2017, 06:24:11 AM »

Sherlock or Midsomer Murders - I've watch both
Whisky or wine - Depends
Broadchurch or Line of Duty, she said -  Haven't watched either
Indian or Chinese takeaway - Don't buy takeaways".
Merkel or Macron - Both

Ohh Theresa !!!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-cant-even-give-straight-10419020

THERESA May will this week gamble her credibility on cutting net migration to below 100,000 a year. Mrs May is convinced she can finally deliver where predecessor David Cameron failed once Britain leaves the EU.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3556086/theresa-may-will-vow-to-cut-net-net-migration-to-tens-of-thousands-despite-seven-years-of-failure/
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Shadows
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2017, 06:29:24 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2017, 06:31:54 AM by Shadows »

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

I am sure they do, which is why they want to strengthen & continue the disastrous Reagan-Thatcher economy (But you know it's on borrowed time with the massive polarization of young people coming into the voting bloc & old people dying, even if some of these young people turn conservative, it's only a matter of few years !








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Shadows
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2017, 09:50:38 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2017, 10:24:03 PM by Shadows »

What happened when Jeremy Corbyn questioned Theresa May during a Facebook Live?


Jeremy Corbyn asked: "Hi Theresa May, as Prime Minister you have served your elite friends by giving them tax cuts while wages have stagnated, house-building is at its lowest since the 1920s, there are 20,000 fewer police on our streets since 2010 and the NHS is in crisis. "Do you not think the British people deserve to see us debate, live and on TV?"

Theresa May replied: "What I think is more important is that I and he take questions directly from the voters."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39928536/what-happened-when-jeremy-corbyn-questioned-theresa-may-during-a-facebook-live


THERESA May was lambasted by a disabled voter who claimed Tory benefit cuts had left her trying to live on £100 a month.


“The fat cats keep all the money and us lot get nothing.” May tried to interject but Mohan persisted: “Do you know what I want? I want my disability living allowance to come back. Not have PIPs and get nothing. I can’t live on £100 a month. They just took it all away from me.”

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15287591.May_confronted_by_woman_forced_to_survive_on___100_a_month_after_cuts_to_disability_support/
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2017, 10:08:59 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2017, 10:23:23 PM by Shadows »

Election 2017: Student voter registration rockets with most vowing to back Jeremy Corbyn's Labour


Students are bucking the national trend by continuing to reject Theresa May – who is the least popular party leader, with a rating of minus 33 per cent in one survey. Support for the Conservatives stands at 17 per cent in the poll conducted by the UNiDAYS student network and at 18 per cent with the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi). Significantly, 78 per cent of students said they planned to vote, which would be a higher turnout than at the election two years ago (69 per cent), but lower than in the Brexit referendum (87 per cent).

Ms May appears to have won over more male students (25 per cent) than she has managed with young females (just 11 per cent). “An overall majority of students who have made up their mind support Jeremy Corbyn."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-students-turn-out-jeremy-corbyn-labour-liberal-democrats-nick-clegg-tuition-fees-a7717856.html


Here’s what happened when Jeremy Corbyn took over Hyde Park


Jeremy Corbyn addressed a huge crowd of around 3,000 students outside Brudenell Social Club this afternoon. The event was originally supposed to take place inside of Brudenell, but after The Tab broke the story that he was visiting, thousands of students flocked to get a glimpse of the Labour leader, and true to the spirit of Labour’s campaign slogan – ‘For the many, not the few’ – the event was held in the street. Despite arriving nearly an hour late, the crowd stayed put, climbing fences, trees and walls to hear him address the crowd. When the Labour campaign bus eventually arrived, the crowd erupted into loud cheers and chants of ‘Corbyn, Corbyn!’

https://thetab.com/uk/leeds/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-hyde-park-today-32528


Labour begins to poll higher under Jeremy Corbyn than it did under Ed Miliband


Two new polls suggest Labour has climbed to 32 per cent – still significantly behind the Conservatives but higher than the 30.4 per cent the party received at the 2015 election. The narrowing of the gap will come as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn and his team after a raft of policy announcements that, polls suggest, were popular with the public.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-corbyn-poll-latest-higher-ed-miliband-election-2017-news-a7737511.html


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Shadows
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2017, 05:19:59 AM »


"Fake News" !  - We are hearing all sorts of trash & they will be trash till the manifesto & an analysis comes out. BBC is reporting increase is taxes above 330K & not 80K, there's a dozen different reports !

The manifesto with details will be launched today & after that there will be analysis. Before that everything is just trash tabloid !
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Shadows
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2017, 05:51:26 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 06:09:44 AM by Shadows »

A young mother has been credited with making “one of the most convincing arguments for voting Labour” after calling a radio phone-in show to claim that Jeremy Corbyn would help her and her family. Highlighting Labour’s promise to introduce a new £10-an-hour minimum wage , she said it was potentially “an absolutely huge benefit” for her and her partner. “Everything that is a benefit to myself and my partner and all the people that I know has been cut.” “Personally, for myself and for all of the other people that I know in the village that I live in, I can’t see that any of the policies would actually be a bad thing because I think they really resonate with working class people," she said. “People need to realise that if you’re working class, you should be voting for Jeremy Corbyn”, she said.

“It seems to be that people just want to bash Jeremy Corbyn,” she added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/young-mother-lbc-radio-iain-dale-vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-2017-a7741486.html


The Prime Minister has refused to take part in televised debates, while Labour leader Mr Corbyn has said he will only join in if his main rival for Number 10 is also present. ITV’s debate on Thursday evening will see Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, Ukip's Paul Nuttall and the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon lock horns. Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood and Green co-leader Caroline Lucas will also take part in the two-hour show being broadcast from Salford.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-tv-debate-jeremy-corbyn-and-theresa-may-will-not-face-being-emptychaired-despite-a3542101.html


In the new poll btw, Conservatives have their voters as most certain. Lib-Dem the least with 51%, so incase of a Labour surge, some of them may still shift. Ofcourse there is always the potential for Labour to fall further.

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Shadows
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2017, 10:57:22 AM »

Theresa May today twice ducked questions about whether Philip Hammond will stay as Chancellor after the election. Asked about a newspaper report alleging that relations between him and 10 Downing Street had deteriorated, the Chancellor said: “I’m not going to say I’ve never occasionally sworn.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-philip-hammond-fuels-rumours-of-rows-with-theresa-may-as-he-admits-swearing-a3541326.html

Is Hammond gone after the election?

Prime Minister Theresa May rejected "untrammelled free markets" and promised to rein in corporate excesses in pre-election pledges designed to woo not only her core supporters but also those of her left-wing rivals. Her proposals merge tough rules on immigration, cuts to corporation tax and a vote on overturning a ban on fox hunting, which will bring cheer to her party's heartlands, with a promise to cap energy bills, tackle excessive boardroom pay and introduce greater workers' rights. "We do not believe in untrammelled free markets," she wrote in her party's election manifesto, entitled "Forward Together". "We reject the cult of selfish individualism."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/92757238/uk-pm-theresa-mays-pitch-to-voters-market-intervention-stiffer-rules-for-business

Why is she going after working class voters with this gusto instead of solidifying her base which would have given her a big victory anyway? Is she expecting Labour to crash & a landslide for Tories with more working class folks?

Unusual strategy !

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Shadows
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2017, 11:04:31 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 10:22:56 PM by Shadows »

“With the UK's climate targets slipping further out of reach, it appears Theresa May has decided to bury her head in the sand. There is one paltry mention of the air pollution crisis, and no mention of the jaw-dropping cost reductions in renewable energy. Fracking will be forced on local communities, whilst the dirty and expensive energy of the past will continue to receive lavish public hand-outs. The cheapest and cleanest energy once again loses out.”

“There is no detail [in the manifesto] on how vital EU monitoring and enforcement of environmental protections will be replaced, and no long-term goal for restoring our environment. “Quite simply, this country looks set to face an unprecedented, undemocratic, and economically-illiterate attack on the environment, and the Green Party will be at the front-line of opposing it.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-manifesto-environment-caroline-lucas-green-party-car-crash-conservative-a7742946.html

Will the Greens win any seat if they win 3-4% of the vote?


Theresa May is taking a hard line stance on skilled immigration too  - This will pinch surely & bring down net immigration !

"So we will double the Immigration Skills Charge levied on companies employing migrant workers, to £2,000 a year by the end of the parliament, using the revenue generated to invest in higher level skills training for workers in the UK." "Overseas students will remain in the immigration statistics – in line with international definitions – and within scope of the government’s policy to reduce annual net migration," the manifesto states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-conservative-manifesto-immigration-eu-worker-charge-brexit-employers-2000-year-2017-5?IR=T
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Shadows
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2017, 02:50:09 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 03:07:17 AM by Shadows »

Jeremy Corbyn far more likely to be attacked by media than Theresa May, election reporting audit reveals. Newspaper and TV coverage has been overwhelmingly hostile, according to the study

A “considerable majority” of the reports on Labour are critical of the party and its manifesto, a report from Loughborough University claims. Newspapers are being far more balanced in their coverage of the Conservatives, with positive and negative reporting balancing each other out. The attacks are coming from the most popular newspapers, with The Sun and the Daily Express particularly focusing their negative coverage on Labour. The Mail and The Times have also been hostile to Labour, but have balanced that out with positive reporting on the Conservatives.

The issues that the Conservatives are fighting the election on are remaining at the front of the debate. But Labour has been more successful in its second week of campaigning in getting their central issues – social welfare and health – onto the news agenda.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-reporting-bias-general-election-2017-labour-conservative-a7745401.html


Theresa May wants to create new internet that would be controlled & regulated by government

"Some people say that it is not for government to regulate when it comes to technology and the internet," it states. "We disagree." The plans will allow Britain to become "the global leader in the regulation of the use of personal data and the internet", the manifesto claims. The government will be able to place restrictions on seeing adult content and any exceptions would have to be justified to ministers, the manifesto suggests.

The manifesto even suggests that the government might stop search engines like Google from directing people to pornographic websites. "We will put a responsibility on industry not to direct users – even unintentionally – to hate speech, pornography, or other sources of harm," the Conservatives write. The laws would also force technology companies to delete anything that a person posted when they were under 18.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/theresa-may-internet-conservatives-government-a7744176.html

Do we have Under 18 people here? Goodbye in advance !
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Shadows
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2017, 02:59:51 AM »

Theresa May's immigration pledge could have 'catastrophic consequences' for the UK economy

Reducing immigration to the tens of thousands could have “catastrophic consequences” for the British economy, according to a new report that derides Theresa May’s policy as “backward looking”. The report by the new think tank, Global Future, adds that a net migration figure in excess of 200,000 – double the Government’s target – is required to “avoid collapse of whole sectors” and alleviate pressures on the NHS and social care. “The UK is close to full employment, has an ageing population and low productivity growth. These factors make immigration an essential ingredient of a successful economy looking ahead.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-election-pledge-uk-economy-cut-conservative-manifesto-tory-numbers-a7745201.html


Jamie Oliver condemns Theresa May for scrapping free lunches

The celebrity chef and healthy eating campaigner, Jamie Oliver, has attacked the Conservatives over their plans to end free lunches for some of the youngest primary school children. “It’s awful, it’s awful. [Theresa May] will regret it,” Oliver told Channel 4 News on Friday. “We know the diseases that the NHS are overtly paying for now and being punished for and crucified now on cost, which is largely obesity, type 2 diabetes and diet-related diseases. “This tracks from childhood. It doesn’t just happen [during adulthood], it tracks from childhood. As far as I see it … the school is at the front line of the fight against obesity and diet-related disease.”

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/may/19/jamie-oliver-condemns-theresa-may-for-scrapping-free-lunches
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2017, 03:44:49 AM »

My results -


1. SNP                   78% 
2. Plaid Cymru       77%
3. Labour              74%
4. Green                73%
5. Lib-Dem            69%
6. Conservative      43%
7. UKIP                 39%
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Shadows
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2017, 03:10:47 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 03:19:29 PM by Shadows »

How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

Yeah, but many of those UKIP voters were Labour voters before.

Also, Miliband improved on Labour's 2010 PV performance but still resigned.

Miliband improved by only 1% (from a recent historic low of 29%) & lost 29 seats! If he had improved by 4/5% or more even with a loss of couple of seats, he would probably have a case of arguing to stay on. If Labour draws 31 or 32%, Corbyn probably has to go !

Blair 43% 1997, Blair 40.7% 2001, Blair 35% 2005, Brown 29% 2010, Miliband 30.4% 2015!

If Corbyn atleast gets 36/37% of the votes (in which case Tories will be at 41/42 odd) amidst all this May-momentum & hostility towards him, he would probably stay on, who knows ! But more Labour votes could flip many seats & if the Tories go near 40, there's chances of a Lib Dem-Labour-SNP coalition !

BTW Miliband had 5 full years as a leader while Corbyn barely has a year or so. So with Miliband you could argue he had time, an incumbent Prime Minister who was there for long & he still failed.
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2017, 02:45:37 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 02:49:18 AM by Shadows »

@election_data
Hard to get a grip of what is changing but a couple of things. YouGov had 45% of their 18-24s saying they were certain to vote last week
This week they have 57% of 18-24 year olds saying they are certain to vote. And there's also been a flip amongst 25 to 49 year olds.
Last week they had Tories up 7 amongst 25-49 yr olds. This week they have Labour up 8 amongst 25 to 49 year olds.
I'm comparing the 4-5 May YouGov poll with the 16-17 May

@election_data
Same story with Survation btw. In their last poll they had the Tories up 20 points among 35-54 yo's. Tonight's poll has it down to 43:37.
Tonight's survation also has support amongst over 55s increasing for the Conservatives. Pretty clear (so far) that middle-aged voters are moving away from the Conservatives in the last week.

@election_data
So I think we're seeing familiar patterns. The younger, urban voters are getting behind Labour. Older, suburban, rural are going Tory. What remains (as always) is the great mass of middle-aged, middle-income, suburban 'swingy' voters which decide seats and elections. They appear to be weakening in their support for the Tories.

YouGov/Sunday Times
On the changes to care funding 35% said they supported them, 40% they opposed them


Looks like Labour manifesto is turning more voters on then Tory manifesto turning people off.

Labour is doing a smart thing by focusing on their platform (granted they had no choice with Corbyn's popularity) - Scrapping tuition fee, Minimum wage increase, additional NHS funding, infra funding etc are all very popular (& many other policies).

The tories on the other hand have some truly bad statements like calling for Preemptive Nuclear strike (the more you think about this stuff for a few days with a cool head, the worse it looks, although this is not a big deal for voters) or policies like total regulation of the Internet (which was literally as if borrowing for North Korea).

A 30% to say 34% vote share may not do a lot in terms of seats (may protect some marginal seats) but it if goes to 37-38%, then Tories will also come down. And then a gain of 3-4% could mean a swing of 5-8% & that would swing many seats.
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2017, 02:47:49 AM »

BTW from Wikipedia, even Iran held 3 Presidential debates & all 5 major candidates were present.

There was three live televised debates in total. First debate focused on social issues while the next two revolved around economic and political matters. Every effort seems to have been made not to leave any room for accusations of partiality. According to schedule, the candidates could hold a meeting of 15 minutes with the aides and advisors after 90 minutes of debate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election_debates,_2017

Crazy that Theresa May has refused to debate !
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2017, 09:13:34 PM »

Controversial Tory social care plans, Theresa May's "version of the poll tax" will lead to her downfall, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has told Sky News. Mr Farron said it showed the Conservative leadership is "mean, calculating, and uncaring" and taking voters for granted.

The party is facing a backlash over the proposed social care scheme, which would see the planned £72,000 cap on care costs scrapped. Instead, people would not have to pay for their care if they have assets of below £100,000 - including the value of their home - rather than the current threshold of £23,500.

http://news.sky.com/story/tory-social-care-plans-theresa-mays-poll-tax-warns-tim-farron-10886756

Conservative candidates are reporting that the proposal is going down badly on the doorstep, potentially accounting for a drop in the party’s lead in the polls. Two Tory candidates seeking re-election, including Sarah Wollaston, who chaired the Commons health committee, have gone on the record to criticise the proposal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/21/theresa-may-under-pressure-over-dementia-tax-social-care-shakeup
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2017, 09:19:42 PM »

Mr Corbyn, campaigning in Birmingham ahead of the 8 June election, said the party's manifesto was "very clear". Speaking to reporters after a rally, Mr Corbyn said: "The manifesto makes it very clear that the Labour Party has come to a decision and is committed to Trident.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39984070

Under 25s have sent off nearly 16,000 more applications than any other age group since the Prime Minister made the shock announcement on 18 April.   

In total, The Register to Vote Service has recorded 714,595 under 25s applying to register between 18 April and 20 May. The second largest group to register during that period was 25-34-year-olds, who made 698,781 applications. Numbers for older age groups come in at less than half the latter figure, with 317,908 applications from 35-44-year-olds, and just 27,172 from the over 75s.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/general-election-latest-young-people-voter-registration-under-25s-theresa-may-a7747681.html
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2017, 09:27:27 PM »

Yeah, May just possibly blew what could have been the greatest Torie win since Thatcher and Major into possibly a Hung Parliament or weak Torie majority.

Hung Parliament? With still a comfortable lead, that is hard to achieve. Labour has to get more votes & there's a margin of error & all that - Sometimes we jump too much into the short term trends, let's see what happens, in 10-12 days we will have definite idea. She could still get a solid majority & rule with an iron fist !

Frankly, I hope she realizes how horrid her Internet regulation scheme is & takes feedback from voters.
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