UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[EnglishPete]

Telegraph News‏Verified account @TelegraphNews  18s18 seconds ago
More
 Ukip to win 'handful' of seats at June election, Paul Nuttall says

Been there done that

UKIP might have a chance in Hartlepool. It will also be interesting to see what happens in Clacton where MP Douglass Carswell recently left UKIP and is likely to be supported by the Conservatives whilst Brexit major donor and activist Arron Banks plans to stand against him. Those are the only two places I can see that UKIP might win but they have more or less zero chance in any other seat and its likely they'll get zero seats overall.

[EnglishPete]

Corbyn's strategy of not talking about Brexit when May staged it as a Brexit election is perplexing to say at least. I don't think "save the NHS" would carry as much weight as he thinks.

Labour has been campaigning around the NHS at every election I can remember. The trouble with talking about Brexit is his party's demographics. Many of Labours seats are in working class areas that voted leave, what in the US might be called 'rust belt'. There was a fear that many of their voters in these areas would switch to UKIP. However given the shambolic state of that party in recent months (or perhaps I should say more shambolic than usual) it now seems more likely that such voters would switch directly over to UKIP.

The trouble is that a significant minority of their voters and a majority of their MPs are the left wing middle class, the hard core of the remain side.

[EnglishPete]

Labour could be squeezed really badly by the Tories here. David Cameron had an image as the archetypal upper class liberal elitist snob. This is something that not only put off some moderate Labour/Conservative swing voters but also led to a section of Conservative voters who switched to UKIP. With May having a strong appeal to both these groups the Tories could really clean up.

Labour has a certain core of very left wing areas, inner London, City of Birmingham, City of Manchester, Liverpool, South Yorkshire, parts of South Wales,Durham and Tyneside. They could hang on to the bulk of their seats in these areas whilst being massacred elsewhere in the Midlands and the North as has already happened elsewhere in the South.

[EnglishPete]

i really don't understand all this anti-corbyn hysteria. this will be his first elections after all.

he's more or less a communist, although never officially. He's been in Parliament since 1983 and he never met a hard left cause or campaign he didn't like. These images from the 1980s and 90s in particular have not been forgotten

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/when-jeremy-met-gerry-1-7106302

[EnglishPete]

Do the Lib Dems have a chance to come in 2nd

I would expect then to regain some of the seats they lost in 2015, particularly those more middle class, more remain voting seats in places like Twickenham, Cambridge and Bath, however I would expect the Tories to hold most of the seats they took from the Lib dems in 2015.

[EnglishPete]

It seems Tony Blair will campaign with LIB this time.

Rip lib dem revival

[EnglishPete]

it's funny to see how everybody on this forum pretends to be leftist, but attacking true left winger corbyn and defending war criminal blair who is anything but left, and started more wars than any conservative or labour prime minister.

Corbyn isn't against violence. He was actively defending and making excuses for the IRA in the eighties when they were murdering people. He's made excuses for other terrorist groups. He also defends dictatorships if they happen to be left wing. He spoke at a 'Friends of Cuba' metting in London just a few months ago. He has close links with many far left political activists in revolutionary communist and trotskyist groups. He attends and speaks at the same political rallies as they do and uses the same style of rhetoric as they use.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its probably a duck. Jeremy Corbyn is a communist in all but name. As such he has no problem with violence aimed at the west or at what he  sees as the right. He's just against violence when it comes from the west and is directed at the enemies of the west.

[EnglishPete]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Who would that be? Let's find out:

Jack Dromey, Bimingham Erdington, +5,129
Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central, +4,981
Jon Cruddas, Dagenham and Rainham, +4,980
Ivan Lewis, Bury South, +4,922
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke-on-Trent North, +4,836
Jessica Modern, Newport East, +4,705
Sue Hayman, Wokington, +4,686
Melanie Onn, Great Grimsby, +4,540
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley, +4,530
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West, +4,509
Neil Coyle, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, +4,489
Graham Jones, Hyndburn, +4,400
David Crausby, Bolton North East, +4,377
Ian Austin, Dudley North, +4,181
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East, +3,980
Alan Whitehead, Southampton Test, +3,810
Paul Flynn, Newport West, +3,510
Helen Goodman, Bishop Auckland, +3,508
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside, +3,343
Julie Cooper, Burnley, +3,244
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South, +3,188
Jenny Chapman, Darlington, +3,158
Nic Dakin, Sc**nthorpe, +3,134
Iain Wright, Hartlepool, +3,084
Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, +3,002
Vernon Coaker, Gedling, +2,986
David Hanson, Delyn, +2,930
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston, +2,706
Clive Efford, Eltham, +2,693
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South, +2,637
Mary Creagh, Wakefield, +2,613
Gordon Marsden, Blackpool South, +2,585
Rob Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South, +2,539
Richard Burden, Birmingham Northfield, +2,509
Susan Elan Jones, Clwyd South, +2,402
Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, +2,268
Gareth Thomas, Harrow West, +2,208
Karen Buck, Westminster North, +1,977
David Winnick, Walsall North, +1,937
Madeleine Moon, Bridgend, +1,927
Natascha Engel, Derbyshire North East, +1,883
Ian Lucas, Wrexham, +1,831
Paula Sheriff, Dewsbury, +1,451
Catherine Smith, Lancaster and Fleetwood, +1,65
Peter Kyle, Hove, +1,236
Tulip Siddiq, Hampstead and Kilburn, +1,138
Joan Ryan, Enfield North, +1,086
Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West, +801
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness, +795
Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme, +650
Daniel Zeichner, Cambridge, +599
Wes Streeting, Ilford North, +589
Ruth Cadbury, Brentford and Isleworth, +465
Holly Lynch, Halifax, +428
Margaret Greenwood, Wirral West, +417
Rupa Huq, Ealing Central and Acton, +274
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn, +229
Chris Matheson, City of Chester, +93

These are the people who've already given up hope of returning to parliament.

As I've said I think that leave voting seats in the North with up to 8-10k majorities could actually fall before certain marginal seats on the list above.

I reckon that Neil Coyle+Jess Phillips+Ian Murray will be safe as they're defending against the Liberals and SNP

One list of Labour seats that will be quite vulnerable is the list of Labour held seats where the combined Conservative and UKIP vote in 2015 was greater than the winning Labour vote.

Given the way that, in local elections, the Conservatives have absorbed most of the UKIP vote as well as some of the Labour vote all these seats have to be seen as at risk for Labour. Indeed one of them, Copeland, already went to the Tories in a by election. UKIP vote may hold up in Hartlepool which will be a top target for them but I expect it will collapse everywhere else and the Tories will win most of these seats.


Alyn and Deeside
Ashfield
Barrow in Furness
Batley and Spen
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Erdington
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Brentford and Isleworth
Bridgend
Bristol East
Bristol South
Bury South
Chester, City of
Chorley
Clwyd South
Copeland
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Dagenham and Rainham
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire North East
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Dudley North
Ealing Central and Acton
Eltham
Enfield North
Gedling
Great Grimsby
Halifax
Hampstead and Kilburn
Hartlepool
Heywood and Middleton
Hove
Hyndburn
Ilford North
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Mansfield
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newport East
Newport West
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Southampton Test
Stalybridge and Hyde
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent South
Wakefield
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wirral West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Wrexham

[EnglishPete]

It seems at the rate we are going UKIP's vote share in 2017 might be barely larger than 2010 even though that is more of a function of  running a lot less candidates in 2017 than 2010.

Will be interesting if the collapse is across-the-board or if UKIP can establish a LibDem-style niche, holding up their vote in a few stronghold seats (their three most obvious targets being Thurrock, Hartlepool, and Boston & Skegness).

Thurrock and Boston are already held by the Tories and I would fully expect the May surge to squeeze the UKIP vote hard in those places. They would have had some chance in Hartlepool but not only have they been a disaster in their national organisation since the referendum but they've also passed over a well liked local councillor who did well in this months local elections in Hartlepool and instead picked an absolute dumpster fire of a candidate who is already in the news for his screw ups (just as he was at the last election).

[EnglishPete]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

@GoodwinMJ
"Lib Dem support is down in all 4 polls this eve & below 10% in 3, with only 25 days left. Sorry but something has gone very, very wrong."

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

I expect they'll make a few gains in Scotland vs. the SNP as in a few seats they'll be the heavy recipients of unionist tactical voting.

The only non Lib Dem held seats I would favour them in at the moment are Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, Cambridge, North East Fife, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire. While on the other hand they could be at serious risk of losing Southport and Carshalton & Wallington to the Tories.

Richmond Park will be interesting though, the demographics are much less naturally strong for the Lib Dems than they were 20-30 years ago due it becoming insanely expensive and the pattern of by-election gains is that they usually revert to the party that lost it at the subsequent general election if that party is doing well and the Tories are obviously doing well this year. However Brexit may allow Olney to buck the general rule, we'll have to wait and see.

Apart from Twickenham I don't see the Lib Dems gaining back any other seats from the Tories.  They may well gain seats but outside Twickenham these will all be from Labour or the SNP. Cambridge, Birmingham Yardley, Bristol West and North East Fife are all much more likely gains than any Tory seats in the South West or along the South Coast.

[EnglishPete]

Using Electoral Calculus, I made 3 separate scenarios.
Polls underestimate Labour vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 357+27 44.8%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 215-14 32.3%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.4%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 4.9%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 2.3%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls underestimate Tory vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 433+103 50.0%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 145-84 25.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 41-13 4.0%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 10+1 12.0%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.7%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 0-1 3.0%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls are right
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 395+65 47.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 175-54 29.2%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 2.8%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.9%
650 seats
326 for majority

Note that this is nationwide, not seat by seat, so that is why Lucas loses in some scenarios, she may be doing better in her seat. Which outcome do you think is most plausible? The polls have been untrustworthy, especially UK polling(even in 2010 they were off by quite a bit, and have been wrong more often than thought in years when one party wins in a landslide by getting the scale of the landslide wrong). When the Tories were way ahead, in 1983 and 2010, they put them ahead by too much, in 1983 final polls put the Tories around 47%. In 1992 and 2015, they overestimated Labour and underestimated the turnout of more conservative demographics with Brexit. What are your thoughts?

The polling average at the moment shows the Tory surge being entirely based on picking up most of UKIP's vote with no significant decline in Labour's vote share since 2015. I rather suspect that that's wrong. Jeremy Corbyn is not personally popular with the public and Labour's constant infighting since he became leader has not passed unnoticed. Tories 50% Labour 25% sounds much more plausible to me.

[EnglishPete]

"Communism still represents, in my view, a society worth working towards". Andrew Murray, 11 December, 2015.


I'm sill baffled, why the hell would Corbyn appoint this man out of all people ....

I think you've answered your own question there.

[EnglishPete]

Some tweets from yesterday from former Labour MP Dennis McShane

Denis MacShane‏ @DenisMacShane  23h23 hours ago
More
Denis MacShane Retweeted Tom Harris
I returned to Lab S London seat which I thought OK last weekend to face non-stop JC hostility. Anger, despair, sense of betrayal.


Denis MacShane‏ @DenisMacShane  23h23 hours ago
More
Denis MacShane Retweeted Jennifer  👑
And what Lab MPs friends tell me in north. Perhaps you, they, me are all wrong though and it will be a big Lab winDenis MacShane added,
Jennifer  👑 @Chic_Happens_
Certainly matches what I'm hearing here (Sussex) https://twitter.com/denismacshane/status/863748559316889600 …

Denis MacShane Retweeted
 (((Fightingb4ck)))‏ @fightingb4ck  24h24 hours ago
More
Replying to @DenisMacShane @MarkHemi82
wait til you canvass in North London ....

This is just anecdotal of course but it matches the great majority of similar anecdotal reports of Labour people seen on social media and in other media.

[EnglishPete]

The fundamentals seem to be ripe for Labour. NHS hacking, nurse strike,  Brexit job losses, cuts etc. But they are stuck with Corbyn, the events may help them avoid a larger blowout though.

I don't think it will help them avoid a larger blowout. I suspect that the Tories are heading for their best election result since 1931 and Labour is heading for a real meltdown. I think the polls are overstating the Labour vote again.

[EnglishPete]

Article from Mike Smithson who runs the 'Political Betting' website (one of the leading psephology websites in the UK)

Quote "

Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane
Canvassing in S London Labour seat and every 2nd house it was Jeremy. Never heard such hostility in 4 decades.

Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.

He had been working in the Dagenham and Rainham parliamentary constituency mostly focussing former council estates which at past elections have been pretty solid for Labour. What was striking, he told me, was the massive negative reaction to Jeremy Corbyn that he was getting on the doorstep and how quite a few of those being canvassed wanted to use the conversation to vent the anger with the Labour leader.

The reaction was in some contrast to the middle class areas of the constituency where there was a move to the Conservatives but not nothing like on the scale as on the former council estates.

What is interesting is that this is also the reaction that many Labour canvassers are finding. The Tweet above from the former Labour MP and ex-BBC colleague of mine, Denis MacShane, is typical.

The Lib Dems I know who been out in target seats are also experiencing a lot of hostility towards to the man who has convincingly won two LAB leadership elections.

This is of course all reflected in the polls. Upto GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted but now large swathes of it have disappeared.

From what I can gather everything that was predicted about Corbyn’s leadership in a general election is actually happening. He is proving a massive negative and his supporters are left trying to find even more excuses. " End Quote

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-labours-election-gift-to-mrs-may-and-the-tories/

[Note for US readers "Council Estate" = Public Housing Neighborhood

[EnglishPete]

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto
https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...

She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?

This was her first speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDyZ8trge2E

She's targeting working class Labour and UKIP voters,

Tory manifesto offered nothing to traditional middle class Tory voters, danger they wont show up to the polls and stay home come 8th June... Either she's taking them for granted or its a bold move

She's offering not being Jeremy Corbyn. His name gets mentioned a lot in Conservative election leaflets.

[EnglishPete]

Only 2 of the 10 largest papers favor the Labour party over the Tories.

     Given the utter disaster Labour's campaign has been, the Mirror appears to be some sort of propaganda arm for the Labour Party.

Yes, the Mirror is more or less the unofficial publishing arm of the Labour Party and has been since WWII.

Yes indeed. And the Daily Mail has largely played the same role for the Conservative Party over the same period.

[EnglishPete]

Abbott declared support for IRA defeat of Britain

“is our struggle — every defeat of the British state is a victory for all of us. A defeat in Northern Ireland would be a defeat indeed.”

“Though I was born here in London, I couldn’t identify as British,”



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/abbott-declared-support-for-ira-defeat-of-britain-rp79dvvmk

she's correct, though…?

Correct to support the IRA and hope for the defeat of Britain. Well that's a matter of opinion. However its not an opinion widely shared in the UK. Wanting your country to be defeated by an enemy terrorist organisation is not a popular position in the UK. I don't imagine it would be popular in Germany or any other country for that matter.

[EnglishPete]

Abbott declared support for IRA defeat of Britain

“is our struggle — every defeat of the British state is a victory for all of us. A defeat in Northern Ireland would be a defeat indeed.”

“Though I was born here in London, I couldn’t identify as British,”



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/abbott-declared-support-for-ira-defeat-of-britain-rp79dvvmk

It was always coming, sort of innocent by Corbyn to assume he wouldn't be getting flak for his sympathy to the deplorable of the world

Yes how naive of Corbyn to not fellate the UDA/RUC without question.

Corbyn made it perfectly clear by his words and actions during the 'troubles' that he supported SinnFein/IRA and wanted them to win. Frankly He has never renounced this view, just pretended it wasn't his position. His equivocal words even today are meant as a way of avoiding disavowing that position.

As for your positing that the, rather limited, counter insurgency efforts of the RUC were morally equivalent to IRA terrorist violence well you're entitled to your (morally bankrupt) views but I'm sure you can understand that UK voters might not be thrilled at the prospect of a potential PM who shares such views.

[EnglishPete]

Correct to support the IRA and hope for the defeat of Britain. Well that's a matter of opinion. However its not an opinion widely shared in the UK. Wanting your country to be defeated by an enemy terrorist organisation is not a popular position in the UK. I don't imagine it would be popular in Germany or any other country for that matter.

Actually support for Irish Republicanism - not the same thing as support for the IRA and its bombing campaigns of course - was the majority position back during the Troubles

Citation needed

[EnglishPete]

This is the very definition of political correctness. We all know that it's correct that this will objectively have an effect on politics but we have to pretend like to doesn't to appease...I don't even know. It's not like if we don't talk about politics the victims will be any less dead.

It's so dumb.

Also, don't bring up garbage about Americans not being able to comment. Unless you can find an example of an American who talked about the political effects of Ariana Grande but refused to talk about the political effects of San Bernidino. I doubt such a person exists though. Generally, people are either whiny babies or they aren't.

By the way, the terrorist attack was very sad. I'm sad the people are dead or hurt. We are all adults though. It shouldn't even have to be said.

I would agree with this. some people in the UK are talking about the parties suspending campaigning until the weekend, which is madness in my view this close to an election when postal ballots are already being posted. We shouldn't put democracy on hold because some neurotic loser wanted to murder suicide his way into the headlines.

[EnglishPete]

And before anyone accuses me of making partisan points out of last night's tragedy I'm not saying whether the public perception problems that Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have around questions of terrorism are fair or unfair. From a psephological point of view that's beside the point. The fact is that they do have such public perception problems and these will be brought into people's minds as they watch Theresa May speaking from the Downing Street podium on the evening news whilst they fill in their postal ballots. All this happening at the same time as campaigning being temporarily suspended does not bode well for Labour.

[EnglishPete]

May words on Corbyn's terror speech:



Both Lab and Tories using Manchester terror attack for "cheap political gain"
This kind of thing is really annoying and frustrating,
SHAME ON THEM BOTH!!!

tbf I am not a fan of Corbyn at all, but he didn't use it but rather put forward his political insight to how to fight terror the Tories responded in a campaign manner if anything

Corbyn didn't 'use his political insight on how to fight terror'. He was arguing, in his usual weasel worded way, that the terrorists should be given what they want. This is not a one off for him. For the past forty years he has consistently defended and made excuses for anti British and anti western dictators and terrorists. He always excuses the motives of the terrorists, he always condemns and UK or Western effort fighting against them. And he always suggests that the solution is to give in to the terrorist (justifiable in his view) demands.

All the while he'll pretend with weasel words he doesn't actually support anti-British and anti-Western terrorism and he'll get on his hypocritical high horse and pretend to be misrepresented whenever anyone points out that that's exactly what he's doing.

[EnglishPete]

I dare say that, to the average person under the age of 45, who have barely any recollection/experience of the troubles, talking about the IRA are basically irrelevant. On the flip side, people over the age of 45 are already voting Tory.

So the "IRA! IRA!" argument isn't going to land as heavily as people think.

...and the thing that a lot of people have forgotten: in the 1980s and 90s rather a lot of people here were broadly sympathetic to Irish Republicanism, even if o/c not to the IRA.

You said that before and when I asked for evidence you gave polling evidence from the 1980s and 1990s from the mainland showing a majority of the population supporting the idea of Irish reunification. Well being around in England at the time I remember it was not uncommon to hear some people advocate that the mainland separate and withdraw from Northern Ireland. The most common argument used was "If the bloody Irish want to blow each other up we should just let them get on with it". Such people would have been the main group amongst people on the mainland who supported British withdrawal from Northern Ireland but they sure as hell wouldn't have been fans of the IRA or Irish Republicanism in general.

Others liked the idea of Irish reunification but thought that the UK government had a duty to ensure that it was only done with democratic majority support and in a democratic way. The number of people who thought that the mainland UK government was actually doing an injustice to the people of Northern Ireland (and thus sympathising with the SF position) by being there were always a small minority and would be the kind of people who would only ever vote Labour anyway.

its similar the opposition in the US to involvement in wars in the middle east. There is majority opposition in the US to such involvement. However many of those opposing will do so along the lines of "Its nothing to do with us. Why should we spend blood and treasure trying to save some middle eastern sh**thole? If they want to blow each other up we should just let them get on with it"

I'm sure there has never been a case in UK or US history where the majority of people opposed a foreign war either partly or wholly because they thought it was an injustice to the foreigners.

The issue people have with Corbyn is that in any conflict between Britain and her enemies he always seems to side with Britain's enemies

[EnglishPete]

Great Tory attack ad that sums up much that is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn and renders him unfit to be PM

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/868217762027536384