UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Tintrlvr]

Just gonna try and defuse this flame war with some noob questions - is it likely that Scotland goes even more monolithically SNP (if that's possible)? I'm guessing Labor is gonna keep falling anyway but shouldn't that be kind of worrying?

There are only three Westminster seats in Scotland that the SNP does not currently hold, one each held by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories. Most likely result is probably that the SNP picks up the Labour seat but loses a seat or two, or on a bad night for the SNP/good night for the Tories, three or four (but almost certainly no more than four), to the Tories. It's also possible that the Lib Dems gain a seat or two back from the SNP in the Highlands or Edinburgh, depending on candidates and how well the Lib Dems do in the campaign generally. If the SNP really bungle the campaign, the Tories and Lib Dems (but probably not Labour) may have an opening to win more seats from the SNP, but I can't really see that happening. I would say it is extremely unlikely that the SNP picks up either seat held by the Tories/Lib Dems.

This is basically backed up by current polling in Scotland, which shows the Tories consolidating the Unionist vote considerably, Labour in the doldrums and the SNP more or less flat since last election. (Polls are actually showing the SNP down, but with the Scottish Greens equivalently up, and the Scottish Green and SNP votes overlap heavily. Most people who say they will vote Green in Scotland now will ultimately vote SNP tactically if their seat is remotely marginal, and in many cases even if it is not.)

[Tintrlvr]

On a brilliant night the tories could take Slough

It is one of the few seats that swung to Labour in 2015.

[Tintrlvr]

In light of the complete garbage Political Compass put out about France, what do you think they'll do for the UK?

They'll probably go back to putting the main parties in the blue corner like in 2015



Only the Greens and regionalist/Northern Irish parties managed to escape, and  many were pretty close to the centre anyways

Except that the guy who makes Political Compass seems to be the sort of person who would have a hard-on for Jeremy Corbyn, so I'd expect him to move Labour to just below-left of center.

[Tintrlvr]

Tim Farron is continuing to dig himself into a hole over whether gay sex is a sin.  

I think the attacks on him are repugnant. Now I don't believe in god or sins but Farron does, he is also a Liberal and as long as he believes the state should be neutral on that account and treats gay people impartially as a public figure, his own private thoughts are his own. That's true Liberalism, tolerance is towards things you personally disapprove of.

It does make you leery of what he would advocate for vs. what he would roll over on when pushed, but I agree overall that it is not a huge deal in light of the fact that he voted to legalize same-sex marriage, e.g. (and this on a vote where four Lib Dems voted against, so there was no particular pressure to conform to the party line).

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21346694

[Tintrlvr]

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

I think this has been discussed before, and the only remotely possible location is for the SNP in Corby, but even that seems like a stretch for them to retain their deposit.

There was some Irish Nationalist who was elected to represent part of Liverpool in the early 20th century as I recall.

Edit: Yes, it was Liverpool, though T.P. O'Connor was actually first elected in 1885 and held the seat until his death in 1929, having been unopposed for reelection in all elections after 1910.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Scotland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

[Tintrlvr]

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

The English Democrats have, on occasion, stood in Monmouth, Newport and the South East region for the Welsh Assembly, they lost their deposits and got outpolled by Plaid, in an area that some people insist on banging on about really being part of England

The English Democrats lose their deposits a lot in England, too, though. (Have they ever retained a deposit in a Westminster election?)

[Tintrlvr]

Surely the only threat to the Greens in Brighton Pavilion is Labour, not the Conservatives, who were third in 2015 and have lost support in the seat at every election since 1979 (!). Why the Greens then want to ally with Labour is mystifying.

[Tintrlvr]

So is John Stevens planning an independent ("Stop Brexit") candidacy in Kensington and releasing polling hoping that other parties stand aside for him, or hoping to get their voters to vote tactically? The Liberal Democrats are apparently not great fans of his since he left their party in 2010 to become an independent.

He left the Lib Dems because he wanted to stand against Bercow, who was running for re-election as Speaker, and the Lib Dems wanted to maintain the tradition of not standing against the Speaker. I don't think there is animosity there. That said, it seems too late in the game for him to run as a Lib Dem in Kensington as they already have their own candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

Didnt Lib Dems got some tactical support from the Tories in 2015 against Labour? I remember some Conservatives voted for Clegg in his district to save him from Labour

Yes, and I'd expect that to continue in the handful of seats that are Labour-Lib Dem marginals, but we're talking maybe 10-12 seats max where that is a real dynamic (and obviously Tories tactically voting Lib Dem doesn't necessarily mean the Lib Dems win back seats like Manchester Withington or Birmingham Yardley).

[Tintrlvr]

YouGov poll of London, with changes compared to 2015:

Lab 42 (-2)
Con 36 (+2)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
UKIP - 6 (-2)
Greens - 3 (-2)

The likes of Wes Streeting (Ilford North) would have a fighting chance on these figures.

Do you have crosstabs for that? I couldn't see anything on the YouGov website.

I suspect that Labour will be holding up much better in Inner London than Outer London.

Would the rise in Lib vote potentially save Sarah Olney?

Personally I think Olney is a shoo-in to be reelected. SW London is going to be the Lib Dems' bright spot where they gain 2-3 seats.

[Tintrlvr]

only four candidates in my constituency, Reading West:

Alok Sharma, Con
Olivia Bailey, Lab
Meri O'Connell, LD
Jamie Witham, Green

Lib Dem is the only one who lives in the constituency, Green candidate and Tory incumbent live over the other side of town in the East seat, while the Labour candidate lives in Ealing, which seems to imply that they won't be bothering too much, in a seat that would be a must-win if aiming for a majority

No Roman Party this time? Disappointing.

[Tintrlvr]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

Hey, is that Maggie's old seat?

It is, yes. That would be one hell of a seat to fall to Labour. I think that's down as a Labour gain due to there being a large EU vote there, plus due to Labour being ahead of the Conservatives among middle class voters in London (yes, seriously) in the poll. I've got it down as Labour +0.5. Some interesting sub-samples may cause some surprise results.

Worth saying that I've got UKIP standing in each seat; which may not be the case when the election comes around.

Labour held it 1997-2010 so not that remarkable.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone actually live in Battersea anymore?

As far as I can tell, every one of those luxury flats is some Chinese millionaires cash safety box.

(Basically, it seems way, way too demographically Tory to vote Labour these days)

More to the point, Labour is going to overturn an 8,000-vote majority in an election when they are going backwards across the country?

Finchley is borderline on the realism, still being an over 5,000-vote majority.

[Tintrlvr]

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Bath; if they can't win that they ought to give up and go home.  There are a handful of other possible re-gains from the Tories, and they might have a chance of taking Cambridge back from Labour.  Then there should be a chance in some Scottish seats: East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife.  Beyond those it's hard to be optimistic for them on current polls.

The other trouble for them on these polls is that their 2015 seats don't all look that safe.  Southport, in particular, looks vulnerable as John Pugh is standing down.  I'm sceptical about their chances of losing my own backyard but if the tactical Tories from 2015 desert them they'll need to find some new votes from somewhere...

Southport seems like a likely loss, I agree, but the other LD 2015 seats seem okay. I see Carshalton mentioned sometimes, but that seems to be assuming the national swing occurs in SW London, which is a... debatable... statement.

Overall prediction on the LDs:

GAIN Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton and Bath from Con
GAIN Cambridge from Lab
GAIN North East Fife from SNP

HOLD/GAIN Richmond Park [from Con]

LOSE Southport to Con

Net +4/5, to 13 seats.

I am less optimistic on Edinburgh West and East Dunbartonshire at this point in the campaign (think there will be tactical unwind to the Tories in both as they surge in Scotland that will prevent the LDs from making gains), and I'd throw out Birmingham Yardley as a possible gain from Labour as well. I'm not sure what they did with all of the activists who were swarming Manchester Gorton before the election call, but, if those people were mostly redirected to Manchester Withington, I could see the LDs potentially gaining that from Labour also but don't think it's likely.

Edit: Forgot about Bermondsey and Old Southwark. I think that could be an LD gain from Labour also, although Labour is holding up reasonably well in London.

[Tintrlvr]

One question for the British posters: I keep seeing forecasts saying the SNP is going to lose anywhere from 5-15 seats. Do you think that's accurate, and who would gain these seats? My grasp at Scottish politics isn't great and less so given all the new shifts we're seeing.

The Conservatives. Maybe 1-3 seats to the LDs also but most losses would be to the Tories. Labour will be relatively lucky to retain their single current Scottish seat (but looks better for them now than a few weeks ago).

[Tintrlvr]

Seems reasonable and realistic, although lolPlaid. Why do they even exist if they can't do well when Labour is floundering? Might as well be Mebyon Kernow. Although the locals told a somewhat different story in Wales, so we'll see.

[Tintrlvr]

My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 54 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.

Surely "best case" for the Conservatives involves at least 5-8 seats in Scotland, given polling? Places like Perth and North Perthshire, Ochil and South Perthshire, Stirling and Edinburgh South West are very winnable for the Conservatives if they are polling 30% in Scotland.

[Tintrlvr]

Only 2 of the 10 largest papers favor the Labour party over the Tories.

     Given the utter disaster Labour's campaign has been, the Mirror appears to be some sort of propaganda arm for the Labour Party.

Yes, the Mirror is more or less the unofficial publishing arm of the Labour Party and has been since WWII.

[Tintrlvr]

LD: 88%
Lab: 77%
SNP: 76%
PC: 73%
Green: 71%
SF: 70%
UKIP: 55%
Con: 55%
DUP: 38%
BNP: 23% (ew)

[Tintrlvr]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

It is the kind of seat where the Lib Dems might be competitive if they had managed to get their support into the mid- to high-teens (even though it's never actually elected a Lib Dem in the past), but seems unlikely that they could win it now. I guess it's possible though if a lot of Labour voters are willing to vote tactically? It's much better demographically for the Lib Dems now than a lot of seats they held in all or part of 1997-2015 are.

[Tintrlvr]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

[Tintrlvr]

Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

ICM generational gap in a chart

I can't see the Tories doing as badly as 15% with the 18-25 group (nor will Labour do as well as 73%). As a bit of context YouGov estimates that the Tories got 32% of the 18-29 vote in 2015. Even allowing for Brexit, seen as their vote share is up nationally it is difficult to see their vote share amongst the 18-25 group going below ~25%.

I'm willing to bet they do a bit worse in the 65+ Crowd based on the Dementia tax, even though they reversed on it the voters will still remember.

Not if they have dementia.

(Sorry)

[Tintrlvr]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

Also, the Republicans are not the Tories in a wide variety of ways (in particular with regard to their respective relationships with organized, especially evangelical, Christianity), though not to diminish your point.

[Tintrlvr]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

There wherever there voters want them to be. The party is largely a collection of social democrats (Vince Cable, Tim Farron) and traditional liberals (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander) which is how the party formed in the 1980s; when the SDP joined the liberal party.

Although this can be too reductionist. Most modern prominent Lib Dem figures joined after the two parties merged, and those figures who did originate in one of the two predecessor parties do not necessarily match their expected ideological faction.

I actually think the Lib Dems and the US Democrats are pretty ideologically close, all things considered, at least insofar as trans-Atlantic comparisons are possible.

[Tintrlvr]

An important thing to remember: even if the polls are not only overestimating Labour but are doing so significantly (neither fact is certain) then Labour is still looking at a significantly better result than seemed likely when the election was called. Anyway, I think the best thing for those on the Left to assume is that the election will be a worse loss than 2015, though this is for reasons of psychological preparation/emotional management than the product of rational analysis.

Still, there's a definite feel of UNSKEWED POLLS!!! to a lot of recent analysis; rather too blatant attempts to find reasons to dismiss findings that appall. Opinion polling in this land is very bad, but the one thing it can pick up fairly well is momentum. As David Butler has pointed out this election has seen the biggest ever in-campaign Lab/Con polling shift; there is simply no way that this has been caused purely by more young people telling pollsters that they will vote.

Not totally sure this is true. Cleggmentum was only 7 years ago.