UK General Election, June 8th 2017

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YouGov (Apr 12-13)
Con - 44% (+7 on 2015)
Lab - 23% (-7)
Lib - 12% (+4)
UKIP - 10% (-3)
Nat - 6% (+1)
Grn - 4% (NC)

Labour still ahead among remain voters, but Tories miles ahead among leave voters.

Not sure how accurate it is, but according to this website that yields:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

Con: 395
Lab: 164
Lib: 11
SNP: 56
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
UKIP: 0

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Also decided to plug in the numbers for NI just for fun on a similar calculator. Using the numbers from their 2017 regional election:

DUP 10 (+2)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
UUP 0 (-2)
SDLP 2 (-1)
Alliance 0

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https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854371831196913664

This is not an encouraging rumour.

Any chance Corbyn is not allowed to contest the election as an MP because of that and Labour has to contest the election without a leader?

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Telegraph News‏Verified account @TelegraphNews  18s18 seconds ago
More
 Ukip to win 'handful' of seats at June election, Paul Nuttall says

Been there done that

UKIP can consider itself lucky if they even hold MPs at all after the election

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In light of the complete garbage Political Compass put out about France, what do you think they'll do for the UK?

They'll probably go back to putting the main parties in the blue corner like in 2015



Only the Greens and regionalist/Northern Irish parties managed to escape, and  many were pretty close to the centre anyways

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in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

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As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

The PSC of Catalonia is probably the better comparison.

Yup, seems like an apt comparison!

They used to rule the region on general elections (not regional ones though, nationalists have ruled Catalonia except for a short while between 2003 and 2011), with Catalonia going PSOE by huge margins. Nowadays they are hovering around 10-15% of the vote iirc, but are still the 3rd largest party (though they might drop to 4th soon). Then again, PSOE is nationally around 22%, though they actually hold more governors than PP! (8 vs 7 iirc)

Also, PSC's stance on independence is fairly clear. They don't want independence, won't allow a referendum but will fight for a federal Spain where Catalonia is comfortable and fits in. However the exact stance will depend on who wins the primary nationally. Diaz will move towards more anti-independence while Sánchez is more pro-independence, claiming Spain is a nation of nations, etc

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I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

Ah, a new American!

Keep their what?

Maybe by majority he means "Conservatives=largest party, but might be a hung parliament" and by super majority means "Conservatives have an overall majority"?

But considering the polling and the circumstances of the election that doesn't make any sense either.

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What are the chances of Labour actually gaining seats? I'd guess 5% but I'm far from an expert.

Probably even less than that. Under some circumstances I can see Labour winning more votes though (iirc there have been polls with Lab at 31%. If the error is like 2015 but in Labour's favour they might pull it off).

However, gaining seats is probably not an option.

Such an scenario would probably be something like:

Con: 44% (+6.5%), 350 seats (+20)
Lab: 34% (+3%), 220 seats (-12)
Lib: 10% (+2%), 6 seats (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-8%), no seats

I don't think the scenario I posted is likely at all though. The Lib Dems going down feels off to me (though I used a plain even swing, so if the swing is more uneven they might do better)

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Lord Ashcroft Mega poll (40K)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204



UK sample of (40,000):
Cons 40%
Lab 23%
Lib 10%
UKIP 5%
others 6%
Won't vote or Won't say 15%

CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY



https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2%C2%B7&RLId=%C2%B2%C2%B3&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=26

If 2017 is bigger landslide then 1997 , would that convince Labour to move in a more centrist direction.

I think the Blairites would use it as an opportunity to take back control of Labour and most Labour members would probably fall for it to be entirely honest. However, going centrist is just as disastrous.

What is holding back Labour is not their left-wing policies, the polls are very clear that the British people support most of them. The problem is messaging. Corbyn especially and the Labour party as a whole is bad at messaging and Corbyn as an individual is holding Labour quite far back.

What Labour needs is not to become the Red Tory, but to have fresh leadership with better messaging that is straight to the point. They should probably move to the right on issues like immigration to appeal to English voters as well as coming out in favour of English devolved parliament. An important factor that will cost Labour this election is the fact that they have failed to pick up much of the collapsing UKIP vote.

If Blairites get back control of Labour, any chance of a far left split, leading to a small party to the left of Labour? (like say, Linke in Germany). I guess they could get an amount of votes similar to the Greens, and maybe be slightly more competitive than them (I guess they could get 1 or 2 seats with the adecuate candidates and enough effort)

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My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 47 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.

[Former President tack50]

My guesses for semi-realistic best case scenario for the British parties (excluding Northern Ireland)

Conservatives

Outperform the polls and get 53% of the vote under a "the opposition is fractured, we need STRONG AND STABLE LEADERSHIP not a coalition of chaos" campaign. Corbyn makes some bad decisions and is seen as ineffective. The Lib Dems are seen as out of touch and unlikable but remain where they are (2015 was probably rock bottom for them, at least in terms of the popular vote). UKIP gets less than 2% of the vote. Results:

Con: 53% (450 seats)
Lab: 25% (150 seats)
Lib: 8% (6 seats)
SNP: 54 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Labour

They manage to make the election not just about Brexit, but also about other issues, and also manage to make people vote for their party and their Labour MP, putting local issues up front and forgetting about Corbyn. (or convincing people that he is a lesser evil or something). The Tories are seen as the "Brexit!!!!111!!" party, just like UKIP before. Lib Dems are seen as the remain party, but improve slightly. Finally, a polling error in Labour's favour, overcompensating for 2015. Results:

Con: 41% (333 seats)
Lab: 34% (231 seats)
Lib: 10% (8 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 55 seats
PC: 3 seats
Grn: 1 seat

Surprisingly little changes from 2015.

Lib Dems (and Plaid I guess)

They are seen as the party of the 48%, against a single issue Conservative party and a lost Labour party. Results:

Con: 43% (371 seats)
Lab: 27% (187 seats)
Lib: 16% (15 seats)
UKIP: 2%
SNP: 53 seats
PC: 4 seats
Grn: 1 seat

SNP

They manage to make people think that Westminster does not care and will never care about Scotland unless the SNP is kingmaker so they should vote for the SNP and get concessions or independence. Result:

They lose one seat to the Conservatives, but gain Labour's single seat. No net change.

Surely "best case" for the Conservatives involves at least 5-8 seats in Scotland, given polling? Places like Perth and North Perthshire, Ochil and South Perthshire, Stirling and Edinburgh South West are very winnable for the Conservatives if they are polling 30% in Scotland.

Yeah, I just applied an even swing and pasted the numbers, but for some reason that didn't work for the SNP. I totally agree with you though, 8 seats as a maximum seems right.

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Isidewith results:

Lib Dem 76%
Democratic Unionist 76%
Labour 74%
Plaid and SNP 68%
Green 62%
Sinn Fein 60%
BNP 57%
Conservative 55%
UKIP 51%

Pretty sure something's wrong with that test, at least in respects to the Irish parties. I though the Democratic Unionists were "Irish Conservatives"? Pretty much?

It does more or less OK for the British parties though, I agree with the ranking.

For all what's worth I would probably vote Labour if I was British (depending on the dynamics of the constituency of course).

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How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

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How likely is it that Corbyn improves on Ed Milliband's result in 2015 in the popular vote? (that would mean Lab at 31 or more)

And would Corbyn stay? Could he sell that as a victory, maybe saying "we weren't going to get UKIP voters anyways" or something like that?

Yeah, but many of those UKIP voters were Labour voters before.

Also, Miliband improved on Labour's 2010 PV performance but still resigned.

Miliband improved by only 1% (from a recent historic low of 29%) & lost 29 seats! If he had improved by 4/5% or more even with a loss of couple of seats, he would probably have a case of arguing to stay on. If Labour draws 31 or 32%, Corbyn probably has to go !

Blair 43% 1997, Blair 40.7% 2001, Blair 35% 2005, Brown 29% 2010, Miliband 30.4% 2015!

If Corbyn atleast gets 36/37% of the votes (in which case Tories will be at 41/42 odd) amidst all this May-momentum & hostility towards him, he would probably stay on, who knows ! But more Labour votes could flip many seats & if the Tories go near 40, there's chances of a Lib Dem-Labour-SNP coalition !

BTW Miliband had 5 full years as a leader while Corbyn barely has a year or so. So with Miliband you could argue he had time, an incumbent Prime Minister who was there for long & he still failed.

There is a crucial factor here though. If the polls gets as close as 37 - 41, it's likely that the SNP factors will save the Conservatives like in 2015. And even if a Conservative majority is prevented and Labour gets a coalition deal with the SNP to enter government, that is political suicide for Labour.

Why would a Labour-SNP coalition be suicide for Labour? (at least not more than say, Labour-Plaid or Labour-SDLP)? Other than having to give Scotland a 2nd referendum (probably after Brexit, so in late 2019 or early 2020), what else would Labour have to do?

And why will the SNP save the Conservatives? Do people in England (who don't already vote Tory) hate the SNP that much as for voting conservative out of spite?

Then again, assuming it' a hung parliament (extremely unlikely), it will probably have the conservatives well ahead, so I guess there will just be a Conservative-DUP government or something like that.

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Damn, this thread turned into a dumpster fire pretty fast.

Trying to draw a comparison, what did this board do with the Madrid 04 attacks? I could only find a thread from election day (so not exactly comparable as that was 3 days after)

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poll drop took place BEFORE terror attacks

So, assuming it was taken after the attack: there's a "rally behind the flag" effect for May but that won't necesarily extend to the rest of the Conservative Party?

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"Surge" is a bit of an overstatement...at best Labour will lose by 8-10 points instead of losing by 18-20 points - whihc likely means they will lose about 20 seats rather than losing 100 seats. No one seriously thinks there is the slightest possibility of Labour actually winning the election. IMHO, a lot of people in the UK don't want to see Theresa May waltz away with too big a win and have no serious opposition at all. We are a looooooong way from getting to a point where people start to think that Corbyn ebing PM is a serious possibility - we are still in the realm of "how big a landslide will the Tories get?"

To be fair, while no one doubts that the Tories will win the election, just denying May a larger majority than she has, or even getting a hung parliament (even one where the Tories are at say, 320 seats and can still easily get stuff passed with the DUP and UUP) would probably already be a huge achievement for Corbyn and Labour.

I think the only way for Labour to "win" would be with a hung parliament and in a way where Labour+Lib Dems+(Left Wing Northern Irish parties)+SNP+Plaid (yes, the full "coalition of chaos") have more seats than Conservatives+Right wing Northern Irish parties.

Of course such a government would be extremely unstable (if it's even possible at all), but that's the only way for a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn to happen IMO.

Then again, such an scenario is extremely unlikely anyways.

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I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

Scottish Labour have deep, deep problems and I don't see this changing things for them.  Labour's traditional appeal wasn't to "unionist voters" but to your traditional working class voters and they've mostly gone to the SNP at this point - it honestly wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of those voters didn't actually support independence - my Mum is doing this at this point: just totally alienated by Scottish Labour only ever talking about "A SECOND REFERENDUM" and not the issues, which the SNP surprisingly do.  There's also the fact that the Tories are rising and you might have the whole "the SNP are bad and we aren't fond of them, but at least they aren't the Tories" thing going on.

I only see two Labour seats in Scotland in any remotely realistic scenario: I think that they'll hold onto Edinburgh South and have a small chance in East Lothian - past that, I see nothing.  The old heartland seats in the west are all SNP by huge margins now, and I can't see them getting anywhere near the swing they'd need even if they closed the gap.

Aren't Edinburgh North and Leith and Renfrewshire East closer than East Lothian though? Or do local issues make those harder for Labour?

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@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

well we will know the actually results by 9th of June

but the fact that the tories are losing seats is just wishful thinking, I wish it was true as a centre left voter ...

despite terrible tory campaign, in the doorsteps people still prefer May over Corbyn by a country mile


@edballs
It's a concerning trend that polls now often driving the news - and becoming political events in themselves. Same true in 2015.

^^ couldn't agree more

@Ed_Miliband
 The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015. #justsaying

This has been such a crazy time for pollsters, though. In 2016, they didn't predict President Trump, so everyone mistrusted them, but in the Netherlands and France, the polls were pretty much dead-on.

It's hurts my head thinking about whether they are gonna be right or not

I don't know about the Netherlands, but in France the polls were actually quite a bit off as well, but in the opposite direction! Macron was expected to win by something like 61-39 and ended up winning 66-34.

That's a larger polling error than Trump, Brexit and even the 2015 UK election depending on how you count it

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/861281153239724033?lang=es

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What type of loss would it take for Corbyn to step down? It seems Labour is past the wipe out phase, I wonder if even a net gain of few seats is enough to keep him around or would he stay even if they lost seats?

Gaining seats is not winning. Labour is a party of government, not a party of opposition. We need to be winning elections. Preferably someone who has his popular policies but doesn't have his stupid baggage should replace Corbyn after the election. I'm sick of Labour supporters celebrating that we are 7-8 points behind. We should be ahead!

Considering there are at least 30 seats or so in Scotland that went to the SNP and probably will not come back in the short term, Labour winning even if they don't get a majority is probably a huge victory already. Hell, just getting a hung parliament where SNP+Labour have a majority would already be victory for Labour! (those Scottish seats aren't coming back)

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young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

Yes, but what will be a higher priority for a student? Voting, or studying for other exams? Surely you can't say that studying is a poor excuse during exam time?

I guess students could vote by mail if they so chose? Or does the UK require an excuse?

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STV election poll Scotland



SNP   43
CON   25
LAB   25
LIB     5

Assuming an even swing in Scotland, that would mean:

SNP 51
Con 4
Lib 2
Lab 2

Of course it probably won't be an even swing but still.

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I mean that's an incredibly dumb thing to believe for lots of reasons (biggest for me other than the inclusion of bloody Trump in a list of politicians who are on the left was... Schultz?  I mean I like the guy for a few reasons (I'm a lot more pro-EU than I was a few months back), but he's not exactly on the left of the SPD - pro-TTIP for example which I disagree with a lot) but disagreeing with a left politician isn't an excuse to support the Tories in anything, because the policies of the latter are bad and you should oppose them - unless you like the idea of stealing the homes of dementia patients...

1) My views aren't dumb. 2) I'm a moderate democrat, something I forgot to include. 3) we are here to talk about the British election.

Fine, let's make it about the British election. Why as a moderate centrist and democrat do you think that Theresa May is the best PM for Britain? I can get why you would dislike Corbyn, but even in that case Theresa May seems just as bad.

Wouldn't Tim Farron and the Lib Dems be a lot closer to your political beliefs?

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Also, who won the debate? And will it change anything? (Macron for example did improve quite a bit after his debate with Le Pen, but that election barely resembles the British one)