UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Polkergeist]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

[Polkergeist]

That being said, once the campaign gets going, there's no certainty that result will end up being anything like the polls do now.

Because of

1. The sudden nature of the election call
2. The leave/remain polarisation of the country
3. The main opposition leader has been given no chance of victory

There could be some large shifts in party support as voters try to find their most effective choice.

However I think all the action in shifting support will be on the left side. Any Tory losses from remain voters can be made up from UKIP voters or Labour leave voters.

Interested to hear from posters closer to the action.

[Polkergeist]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Maybe because this is the only way to get rid of Corbyn

Why is Corbyn supporting this?

[Polkergeist]

What is the unders and overs for May to come out of the election politically undamaged?

• Majority of 100
• Majority of 50
• Better than the current majority
• Any majority will do
• Remain on the Government benches

[Polkergeist]

Here are the rest of the Ipsos poll figures

UKIP 2
Grn 2
Rest (incl SNP) 4

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/870602256214839299/photo/1

[Polkergeist]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

[Polkergeist]

On election night are there any websites which do live forecasts of the final outcome?

I am not talking about the 10pm exit poll. I mean forecasts from early results.

I doubt it. There are no early results; constituencies are only declared after every vote has been counted.

I mean during the declarations of the constituencies. Is there any website that has a rolling projection?

[Polkergeist]

After the 10pm exit poll BBC only makes a projection well into the count, like at 3 or 4am.

Sky I think does the same. The newspapers give the results,  I don't know if they do forecasts.

I will check out politico.eu this time.