UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Gustaf]

YouGov poll of Wales:

CON 40 (21 seats)
LAB 30 (15 seats)
PC 13 (3 seats)
LD 8 (1 seat)
UKIP 6
GRN 2

I think this poll is an outlier, where will the Tory gains come from ?
I find it hard to believe the Tories will make inroads in tribal labour areas in the valleys and south of Wales,
The Tories may gain few seats in the north, tho I'm skeptical of them gaining Wrexham. 

Last election Tories' margin over Labour in Wales was about 15% worse than the national average. Current polling has Tories ahead of Labour nationally by around 20-25%. It'd take quite a bit of resilience in Wales for them to not lead there right now, and this seems in line with a uniform swing.

I don't know much about Welsh politics to gauge how elastic it should be, but it doesn't seem crazy to me.

Whether the Tories can actually get this sort of landslide on election day is a different question, obviously.

To those who know more than me, is there any chance of a flow towards PC from Labour? In a situation where traditional Labour voters hate Corbyn but also the Tories I'd have guessed the existence of a credible alternative would hurt Labour more but maybe PC is unappealing to a lot of those people?

[Gustaf]

Very selective data picking. I suggest you go read about the three days work week, the social decay of most British cities (captured beautifully in The Special's Ghost Town), the general feeling that things were falling apart, social unrest as unemployed youth turned football terraces into battlefields, NF running amok, and etc.

Situation was so bad that in one point some thought of overthrowing the government and placing Lord Mountbatten at the top

True, but why would any of those things be a reason to vote Tory? It's not like she reversed de-industrialisation, and her legacy was the continued decline and chronic unemployment/insecurity that may parts of the country still endure to this day.

Ghost Town was released under Thatcher by the way

I hate to say it, but the reason older people vote Tory is because they wish it was still the 1950s and Britain still had an empire.

Never underestimate the sheer weight of Little Englanderism among the inhabitants of moderately prosperous towns like Wellingborough.

I thought Little Englanders were those who did NOT want an empire?

[Gustaf]

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.

[Gustaf]

One thing I'd like some insight on - when people vote tactically to back someone else than their first choice, what are the typical flows like?

I'd be interesting to hear about Scotland and about Lib Dems in various regions.

This is a complete guess, but there was between 1992-2005 a fair amount of centre left voters who would vote Liberal Democrat in the South east and South West (in seats like Bath) to keep the tories out- and I know 1997 was said to see a surge in this. However after the coalition you saw a lot of these types of voters voting for Labour (I haven't got the numbers but there was a really big amount of Lib Dems 2010-Labour 2015 voters) which swung  about 10 seats.

Right, I mean, it's obvious that say Labour voters who vote tactically in a Lib-Con marginal will go Lib. But I've seen conflicting statements on how Lib voters in Con-Lab marginals swing and it's also unclear to me how Scotland works. Is Independence or economics most salient? Would a Labour or Lib Dem voter in a Con-SNP marginal go Tory or SNP?