UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[afleitch]

If it get's through Parliament I assume. Given that Labour back everything else the government does it should wave it through then roll over and take a pounding.

[afleitch]

It's interesting she's not waiting till after the May locals before deciding.

[afleitch]

As I've mentioned somewhere, part of me thinks that Corbyn remains leader to spite Labour at this point. If the Lib Dems can get traction behind them during the campaign as they used to do, coupled with the UKIP having a difficult time trying to relevant, they could claw back those lost voters. The Lib Dems suffered in part from UKIP scooping up the 'not Labour or Tory' vote. Standing old hands in seats they lost actually makes sense.

I don't think Labour have a floor. They have lost seats in the past 4 elections in a row and I expect them to fall further back. There's no chance to No 10 even if they do recover a little without some agreement with the SNP, which requires stepping over any pretend authority they've given SLab.

[afleitch]

Corbyn's strategy of not talking about Brexit when May staged it as a Brexit election is perplexing to say at least. I don't think "save the NHS" would carry as much weight as he thinks.

That slogan was worn out by 1950, in my opinion...

In fairness, the NHS crisis this winter was so historically bad that a Kinnock or a Blair (certainly) would have brought the government to it's knees on that one.

[afleitch]

Tim Farron hits the first fence. He won't say whether or not he considers homosexuality a sin on Channel 4 News.

[afleitch]

Something to think about, Labour tend to poll lower as the campaign progresses, Tories more mixed.

[afleitch]

If you want to input numbers and have lovely maps pop up, this is probably the best choice

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit

[afleitch]

A spectacularly bad Labour campaign could see if sink to the low 20's in fairness.

[afleitch]

in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

Labour hate the SNP more than the SNP. They've always had a disdain for any other political outfit that shares their turf (or takes their voters) Labour have went hard on unionist in Scotland with some calling for people to tactically vote Tory against the SNP. What's left of the party membership (which may actually be in the region of a few thousand) are not as converted to that cause as the party think.

The reality is that there had to be some sort of understanding in place with the SNP to govern 'after 2020' (when that looked like a possibility), assuming the SNP retain their dominance in Scotland.

Here's Kezia back in 2007 after she was rejected by the SNP but before she worked her way up to Labour leader



So this is the sort of mentality Labour 'in England' would have to work with. Which is why it's not going to happen.

[afleitch]

Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

[afleitch]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

[afleitch]

You have nothing to lose but your broadband.

[afleitch]

Wales had very odd politics during the inter-war years due to the resilience of the Liberal Party in the countryside, so comparisons aren't particularly useful (even if they do add to the psychological response to such figures).

Anyway, this fits within the general framework of YouGov's UK-wide polls so is basically as expected. Would be good (well useful) if other firms polled Wales a few times during the campaign actually.

It is worth noting, just for the record, that Welsh polling does have a long track record of exaggerating support for parties with obvious momentum, even more so than for UK-wide polls.

Interesting tidbit from ElectionData twitter.

'The over 65 population grew by 20% in Wales since 2005, whilst younger populations flatlined or declined. Impact now being seen politically.'

[afleitch]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

Apparently 3 unionists (one with less seats at Holyrood than the excluded Greens) v 1 nationalist is fair and balanced.

[afleitch]

Also the YouGov poll was asking people if they were Christian or had no religion.  Christians gave the Tories a 35 point lead and None gave them a 2 point lead.

And also 74% including 63% of Christians don't think gay sex is a sin. Which is good to know.

[afleitch]

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1386953-msps-on-alert-as-white-powder-sent-to-politicians/

STV News are reporting that 'white powers' has been sent to the constituency of office SNP MP John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire), the Municipal Buildings of Angus Council (SNP-run) and the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh. Suggestions are that it's linked with the General Election.

[afleitch]

Sikh's got their man, literally, in Slough's Labour candidate.

[afleitch]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

[afleitch]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

Who was your independent? I'm guessing they're pro-union based on your preferences.

No idea who they were. I usually don't rank them.

[afleitch]

Meanwhile in Scotland

[afleitch]

Problem is Labour would rather have the Tories rule until the sun expands than have a Blairite lead them to victory.

[afleitch]

There hasn't been a Scotland wide poll all month so far. YouGov's regional poll was their old one. I think people are enjoying the idea of what Scotland is going to do, rather than actually poll it.

[afleitch]

Labour did the right thing by putting any old pish in their manifesto. Get's it out of their system.

[afleitch]

Slightly off topic, but the Labour Party group on Aberdeen City council have been suspended for going into coalition with the Tories against Labour's wishes. One Lib Dem also defected to join the new independent grouping.

[afleitch]

Actually, I wouldn't be suprised if the Tories are overestimated at Labour's expense. Labour seem to be rallying anti-Tory opposition to them. The polarisation is quite something.