Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[bilaps]

Wasting money on Alabama is criminal...if it were a gubernatorial race fine, but no Dem is getting sent to Congress from this state.

Republican strategists said the same thing about Massachusetts in 2010.

So the democrats weren't able to flip the 6th in GA but will win a senate seat in Alabama. Right.

[Ebsy]

Wasting money on Alabama is criminal...if it were a gubernatorial race fine, but no Dem is getting sent to Congress from this state.

Republican strategists said the same thing about Massachusetts in 2010.

So the democrats weren't able to flip the 6th in GA but will win a senate seat in Alabama. Right.

Crazier things have happened in politics my friend.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The democrats should do what they did with SC-5 here - sneak Jones some money here and there, but don't make a serious national party effort. The problem with GA-6 was that the Dems spent too much and ended up generating overall turnout similar to that of a regularly scheduled election, which does not currently work to their advantage in normally republican seats.

[Anna Komnene]

The democrats should do what they did with SC-5 here - sneak Jones some money here and there, but don't make a serious national party effort. The problem with GA-6 was that the Dems spent too much and ended up generating overall turnout similar to that of a regularly scheduled election, which does not currently work to their advantage in normally republican seats.

I agree. Maybe a late visit from Obama to Birmingham could do some good.

[The Other Castro]

Some useful benchmarks for tomorrow:

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Targets for Strange win in #ALSen

Jefferson 60.3%
Mobile 49.9%
Madison 44.1%
Montgomery 48.1%
Shelby 56.1%
Tuscaloosa 53.6%
Baldwin 49.1%

Targets for Moore win in #ALSen

Jefferson 39.4%
Mobile 47.3%
Madison 30.1%
Montgomery 44.8%
Shelby 40.9%
Tuscaloosa 51.6%
Baldwin 40.4%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/912347642620993536

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some useful benchmarks for tomorrow:

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Targets for Strange win in #ALSen

Jefferson 60.3%
Mobile 49.9%
Madison 44.1%
Montgomery 48.1%
Shelby 56.1%
Tuscaloosa 53.6%
Baldwin 49.1%

Targets for Moore win in #ALSen

Jefferson 39.4%
Mobile 47.3%
Madison 30.1%
Montgomery 44.8%
Shelby 40.9%
Tuscaloosa 51.6%
Baldwin 40.4%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/912347642620993536

This does not compute.  Except for Tuscaloosa, none of those are mutually incompatible.  For example, in Baldwin it would be very possible for both Strange and Moore to exceed their listed benchmarks.

[Ebsy]

Yeah those benchmarks make no sense in a 2 candidate election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah those benchmarks make no sense in a 2 candidate election.

Maybe they're left over from the first round?

[The Other Castro]

Hmm yeah that's Strange.

[Classic Conservative]

Mark Green from Tennessee and Chris McDaniel from Mississippi are at the Roy Moore/Steve Bannon rally if that is telling for 2018. Paul Nehlen as well.

[Santander]

Mark Green from Tennessee and Chris McDaniel from Mississippi are at the Roy Moore/Steve Bannon rally if that is telling for 2018. Paul Nehlen as well.

Gorka and Farage are there too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Santander]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Alabama_Indy10]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[swf541]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Fudotei]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Matty]

Will the results trickle in as slow as last time?

[SteveRogers]

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Broken clock ftw

[Brittain33]

The democrats should do what they did with SC-5 here - sneak Jones some money here and there, but don't make a serious national party effort. The problem with GA-6 was that the Dems spent too much and ended up generating overall turnout similar to that of a regularly scheduled election, which does not currently work to their advantage in normally republican seats.

I agree. Maybe a late visit from Obama to Birmingham could do some good.

Dems are trapped, anything they do to increase turnout also triggers higher turnout among Republicans. It's like SC-5. Keep below the radar and hope organically and through Jones' campaign enough a Dems show up to make the race close. It's still really, really hard to imagine Jones winning unless there's a Republican civil war.

[Matty]

any turnout reports yet?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

[Matty]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

I don't see that happening

[Skunk]

I've been wondering whether, assuming Moore wins tonight, the GOP establishment might try to subtly sabotage him in the general election.  If he wins in December, he'll likely stay in the Senate and be a thorn in their side for years.  But if he loses the general, the seat goes D for probably only one year, and Jones would be replaced by a less crazy Republican than Moore.  Short term loss, long term gain for the GOP.

I still don't see how Moore loses the general, even if the GOP tries to sabotage him.